The New York Islanders have a core to build around. It’s Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, and Brock Nelson leading the forwards while Noah Dobson is the anchor on defense (Ilya Sorokin can be thrown in as the goaltender). They are the five players who will carry the Islanders throughout the season and will be asked to elevate the roster when times are rough.
Related: Sorokin’s Injury a Reminder That Islanders Need Strong Goalie Duo
There are two problems with this core. The first is that it’s good but not great. These four skaters can get the Islanders to the playoffs but not much further and if the goal is to win the Stanley Cup, that’s a big-picture issue. The other problem is that these players lack the necessary qualities to lead a team to a championship.
Barzal & Nelson Won’t Forecheck
The great teams have star skaters who can score and create offense while also stepping up and winning games on the defensive end and with the forecheck. The Florida Panthers are a great case in point. They had Aleksander Barkov, who won the Selke Trophy, as their top-line center while Matthew Tkachuk added a defensive and hard-hitting presence on the wing, allowing the team to impose its will on the way to a Cup.
The Islanders as a team can defend and the core is no exception. The question is if they will forecheck and deliver hard hits. The answer is no, at least not based on how Barzal, Horvat, and Nelson play. Horvat is the best defensive forward on the Islanders, leading the team with 1.7 defensive point shares last season but he creates turnovers by patrolling the center of the ice and eliminating passing lanes, not by forechecking.
Versatility Isn’t There
The underlying issue with the Islanders as a whole is that they lack versatility. Anders Lee is a finisher who can generate scoring chances. Kyle Palmieri is a shooter on the wing but not a playmaker. Jean-Gabriel Pageau is a passer but not a scorer. When teams force the Islanders to adapt, especially on the offensive end of the ice, they can’t do it. It’s been on full display in the playoffs in each of the past two seasons as the Carolina Hurricanes defeated them in the first round in six games in 2023 and then in five games in the first round in 2024.
Barzal proved last season he can pivot. He started shooting the puck more and it made him an All-Star-caliber player. Nelson has also displayed his versatility as he often sets up his linemates for scoring chances. That said, both Barzal and Nelson, along with the rest of the core, naturally lean towards one skillset and it makes them predictable come playoff time.
Barzal is a passer first, then a scorer. Nelson and Horvat are shooters first, and passers second. Dobson looks to find the open skater from the point before firing the puck to the net. It’s why the Islanders’ top defenseman had 60 assists but only 10 goals when he has a shot that can make him a 15-goal scorer. The Islanders have star players that are easy to limit in the playoffs and it’s why this team keeps hitting a roadblock in the first round.
Can the Core Slow Games Down?
It’s unclear if the Islanders’ star players can slow games down and win without relying on speed. The rest of the roster has no problem playing a slower game but the four skaters often rely on speed and space to take over games. Barzal is the prime example as he tries to gash opponents on the rush and when the team has the puck in the offensive zone, he’s searching for open ice to make a big play.
The stars must thrive when they are forced to create offense within the offensive zone and they’ve struggled to do so in recent seasons. It’s one of the reasons why the power play has struggled as the team has to generate offense with less space and tighter areas. The core has the talent to win with possession and by slowing the game down, the question is if they can do so this season and in the playoffs.
Where the Islanders’ Core Can Carry Them
The bright spot is that the Islanders can score and generate offense from their core players. Ironically, it’s where most of the offense comes from. Additionally, Dobson is a two-way player who can make a difference in a playoff series. Cup-caliber teams have a defenseman who can open up the offense, whether it’s Cale Makar for the Colorado Avalanche or Victor Hedman for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Dobson is playing at that level to be that defenseman for the Islanders.
The other bonus is that while the roster is older, the core is in its prime. Nelson is the oldest as he’ll be 33 years old when the season starts. Otherwise, Horvat is 29, Barzal is 27, and Dobson is 24 (plus Sorokin is 29 which in goaltending years means his best hockey is still ahead of him). This gives the Islanders a group to build around for years to come.
Sorokin is also the big difference in the net. If he’s healthy, he can lead the Islanders on a deep playoff run. He struggled last season but the expectation is that he’ll return to the elite form from the previous seasons when he looked like a Vezina Trophy-caliber goaltender.
The Islanders have a good but not great core. It’s going to get them to the playoffs but unless the players change or there’s a big move at some point this season, expect them to remain only a playoff team and not a contender for the Stanley Cup.
