Brock Nelson hasn’t scored in the last 16 games. He went the entire month of December without finding the back of the net and his last goal came on Nov. 27 against the Boston Bruins. For a player heading into free agency whose primary skill is scoring, this is the opposite of what he and the New York Islanders wanted.
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The Islanders are struggling and near the bottom of the Metropolitan Division and there are a lot of reasons why. Nelson’s inability to find the back of the net is one of them. The team typically can rely on him for 30 goals, and 39 games into the 2024-25 season, he only has 10 of them. It’s hurt the Islanders but it won’t hurt them by the trade deadline when teams around the league will look to add a veteran center like Nelson and give up a big return to do so.
Nelson Will Be a Great Fit Elsewhere
Nelson isn’t scoring at the moment, just like the Islanders as a team aren’t. They average only 2.59 goals per game and have only scored four goals in their last three games. Nelson’s 10 goals, while low by his standards are tied with Bo Horvat for third most on the team.
Yes, he’s having a rough season but it can’t be pinned on him entirely. The roster around him isn’t great either. Nelson isn’t finding the back of the net in part because there aren’t many skaters who are providing him with open looks. Just because Nelson is struggling now, doesn’t mean that he will struggle on another team. On the contrary, a playoff team will likely allow him to find his scoring touch again.
Teams will look at what Nelson can add to the lineup. As a second-line center or third-line option on a team with a surplus of top-six talent, he will add scoring depth but more importantly, play alongside skaters who can provide him with open looks. Cup contenders who want to add one more scorer have the players in place for Nelson to thrive.
Scoring Ability Is Still Valued At the Trade Deadline
Every trade deadline, teams are looking to add scoring to their lineup. Adding another skater who can find the back of the net will go a long way for a team looking to make a Stanley Cup run. It’s why last season, the Vancouver Canucks spent big to acquire Elias Lindholm and the Carolina Hurricanes made the splash to land Jake Guentzel. Great scorers are hard to find at the trade deadline and teams will spend big to acquire them.
Lindholm is a fair comparison to Nelson because last season, he only had nine goals in 49 games but the Calgary Flames still received multiple pieces ahead of the trade deadline for him. Nelson is similarly struggling to score but he has the talent to do so and teams will look at that more than his stats.
Teams will look at Nelson’s value and proven track record when looking to acquire him and more importantly, they will look at the skills he’ll add to the forward unit. It’s why the list of teams that will look to add him will be a big one and the Islanders can wait until they get the best offer (even though the best offer will likely be sooner rather than later).
Nelson Does More Than Score
Nelson’s one of the best scorers on the Islanders with three consecutive 30-goal seasons, including 37 goals in 2021-22. His shot is incredible and even at 33 years old, he can still find the back of the net in multiple ways from using great instincts to gashing opponents on the rush. That said, he’s more than a goal scorer.
What makes Nelson special is that he does it all for the Islanders. He will create scoring chances and find open skaters from the center position which explains his 11 assists this season and 74 assists in the past two seasons. Likewise, he’s a great skater who defends the middle of the ice, two integral elements for any Cup contender.
If the Islanders trade Nelson, they aren’t just trading away their best scorer, they are trading a complete player. Ideally, Nelson retires on Long Island as an icon of the franchise but considering he’s a pending unrestricted free agent (UFA) and the team won’t have enough salary cap space to sign him (unless he takes a significant pay cut), he’s likely on the way out. And with that, the Islanders will trade away arguably the most complete player on the roster.
How Nelson’s Slump Can Hurt the Islanders
If the Islanders continue to play poorly and fall in the standings (it seems like they are in an arms race with the New York Rangers for a lottery position to hopefully select a Long Island kid) they will be sellers at the trade deadline by default. If Nelson is struggling to find the back of the net and the scoring drought remains by the deadline, general manager (GM) Lou Lamoriello won’t receive the return expected for him and might avoid trading his most valuable asset altogether.
If Nelson turns a corner and plays well in the coming weeks, he can give the Islanders three pieces in a deal. Horvat was moved for that price and Lindholm was moved for five pieces, making three a reasonable ask for an elite scorer. However, the continued struggles might have the Islanders settling for two or even one piece in a trade. Lamoriello would prefer to not make a trade at all than settle in a deal, and it’s possible he’d avoid a Nelson deal altogether if he doesn’t start to find the back of the net.
If that’s what ends up happening, the Islanders will be in a bad place. They will be a team on the decline with no path for improvement in both the immediate future and the long run. Even if Lamoriello moves him for two pieces and one of them isn’t a prospect, that’s better than keeping Nelson around and losing him in the offseason for nothing. Yet, Lamoriello might do just that and it would be a defining moment, possibly the last one, of his GM tenure.
