The New York Islanders are making a big playoff push after their season looked like it was spiraling out of control until recently. The team has won six out of their last seven games as they take advantage of a soft schedule.
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This includes wins over teams out of the playoffs like the St. Louis Blues and the bottom-of-the-league San Jose Sharks. But let’s also give the Islanders credit for blowing out the Boston Bruins, who are in second place in the Eastern Conference, on March 2.
Ilya Sorokin is also finding his game. During an undefeated five-game streak, the Russian goaltender posted a .921 save percentage.
Islanders Playoff Odds
After beating the Anaheim Ducks on Sunday, the Islanders were in a postseason position for the first time since the middle of January. That’s a remarkable turnaround from two weeks ago when they were nine points out of the final wild-card spot. With the way things are trending, the playoffs are a possibility.
Despite the loss to the Los Angeles Kings on Monday, which kicked them out of the wild-card picture, the season is far from over. According to data compiled from sports analysis website Betting NJ, in the last 10 years, 15 teams that were not in playoff position in February ended up qualifying for the playoffs. Interestingly, 50 percent of the wild-card spots have been claimed by teams on the outside looking in. Last season, the Islanders were one of those teams.
Also, The Athletic‘s model, which accounts for several factors, including the strength of schedule and the team’s health, has given the Islanders a 77 percent chance to make the playoffs. Momentum is in their favor.
Islanders’ Schedule Will Get Tougher
While the Islanders deserve credit for this turnaround, the rest of the way is no gimme. With 18 games left, four will be against current division leaders. Eight will be against opponents who are in a playoff position or battling for one, including crucial games against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Detroit Red Wings, and Philadelphia Flyers.
If the Islanders want to continue to trend upward, they will need elite goaltending from Sorokin and keep their stars healthy. Also, long multi-game losing streaks must be avoided. There isn’t much margin for error at this point in the season.
The Islanders have two players on long-term injury reserve – Robert Bortuzzo and Scott Mayfield, who are depth options rather than difference-makers. It’s unclear when Bortuzzo will be back in the lineup, but he’s reportedly close.
Mayfield, meanwhile, is out at least 4-6 weeks and could be longer. He might need surgery, according to Islanders beat writer Stefen Rosner. But the team has been playing just fine without them, and it might hurt them if either Mike Reilly or Sebastian Aho has to come out of the lineup. Reilly leads all Islanders in expected goals this season, while Aho is second among defensemen in that category (according to Natural Stat Trick).
The only downside is general manager and president Lou Lamoriello did not pull the trigger on a scoring winger ahead of Friday’s trade deadline. Part of it was his refusal to move this year’s first-round pick – the organization has not made one since 2019.
“There’s no question that I feel good about who we are, where we are, certainly, at this point,” Lamoriello told reporters on a Zoom call, according to the New York Post. “We did not feel that we could have upgraded.” (from ‘Lou Lamoriello, Islanders stand pat as NHL trade deadline passes,’ New York Post, March 8, 2024).
While making the playoffs might seem like an accomplishment, getting knocked out in the first round would be devastating. The Islanders’ core is getting older as Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock approach their 30s, while Anders Lee, Kyle Palmieri, and Brock Nelson are getting closer to their mid-30s.
If Sorokin can continue to give the team elite goaltending, the Islanders will have a chance to make some noise in the postseason. First, they have to make the playoffs. They are tied with the Red Wings at 72 points for the final wild-card spot, but they don’t have the tiebreaker. For the final spot in the Metropolitan Division, the Islanders sit two points behind the Flyers.
