The New York Islanders have relied too heavily on their goaltending this season. That’s why when Ilya Sorokin offers sub-elite play, the team’s issues are exposed. Some have put most of the blame on Sorokin, but others have looked to the organization.
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In the past two months, in particular, the Islanders have been in a rut. The team has just six regulation wins in the past 20 games. If it wasn’t for the points earned from overtime losses, they would be more than seven points behind the third-place Philadelphia Flyers in the Metropolitan Division and more than nine points out of the final wild card spot.
Inside Sorokin’s Season
While all the blame can’t be put on Sorokin, the Islanders need more from him. In December, when they sat in second place in the Metro, his save percentage (SV%) was .912. If he maintained that number for the season, he would be ranked ninth among goaltenders in SV% who have played at least 30 games.
Instead, Sorokin followed up his December with a rough January, with a .902 SV%. February hasn’t been much better at a .908 SV%. That’s just not good enough for a goalie of his caliber.
In his first three seasons in the NHL, the 28-year-old has averaged a stellar .922 SV%. That’s why management agreed to an eight-year, $66 million contract extension, which kicks in next season; he will soon carry an $8.25 million cap hit. When you’re one of the highest-paid players at your position, you need to perform like it.
Not Just Sorokin
It’s possible the Islanders would be closer in the playoff race if Sorokin’s numbers were similar to December. But that’s the problem – he has no margin for error. The Russian native needs to be in elite form, or the team won’t win many games. That’s the way the team is built.
Compare the Islanders to the rival New York Rangers, who haven’t seen the best from former Vezina Trophy-winner Igor Shesterkin this season. Despite his .908 SV%, the Rangers have been in first place in the Metro for most of the campaign. Despite their flaws, the Rangers have built a better team around their goaltender.
What’s wrong with the Islanders? We’ll start with the obvious – their atrocious penalty kill. It ranks last in the NHL at 71.4 percent and is part of the reason why the team has blown several games. This season, they have taken a penalty in the third period that led to either a tying or gaming-winning goal at least 14 times, according to ABC7’s Rob Taub, who formerly wrote for NHL.com and the New York Post.
The team’s 12th-ranked power play is not enough to offset the abysmal PK. Last season, the Islanders’ PK was ninth, which is an astonishing turnaround. Discipline late in games has been an issue, but they also spend too much time defending a lead versus attacking. When the Islanders are playing with the lead at five-on-five, they rank 25th in Corsi for percentage and 23rd in expected goals, according to Natural Stat Trick.
Finally, the Islanders lack talent in their top nine. Sure, Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, and Brock Nelson are great players, but they need more talent around them. The team could have Anders Lee and Jean-Gabriel Pageau for a combined $12 million or Artemi Panarin, who the Islanders whiffed on in free agency in 2018, for $11.6 million. Plus, they don’t have any wingers who are flourishing in their system — they haven’t had a first-round pick since 2019.
All of these factors have contributed to their struggles, not just their goaltending. So, multiple things can be true. The Islanders have been a mess in front of Sorokin, but the Russian netminder can play better. They will go as far as their goaltending takes them this season.
