Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be better this season than the team they were when they lost to the Florida Panthers in Round One? Fellow writer Harrison Smajovits and I are back to debate the answer, and, inevitably, we will tackle the many changes to the Lightning roster that have taken place this summer.
Let us set the stage before we ring the metaphorical fight bell: Steven Stamkos signed with the Nashville Predators. Ryan McDonagh returned to Tampa Bay from Nashville. Mikhail Sergachev was traded to the Utah Hockey Club for Conor Geekie and J.J. Moser. Cam Atkinson and Zemgus Girgensons signed with the Lightning. Oh, and Julien BriseBois signed Jake Guentzel, one of the best free agents on the market, to a seven-year contract.
Needless to say, the opening-night roster will look significantly different from 2023-24. But does “different” mean better? That is what we are here to discuss.
Harrison Smajovits – Yes
This might not be what fans want to hear. They have a point. When a franchise player leaves, it’s hard to believe the team improved. But the reality is the Lightning’s roster shuffle has upped their fortunes for the future.
With the acquisition of Guentzel, they add a longer-term option to replace Stamkos’ production. Last season, he averaged 1.15 points per game, the best of his career. He only improved when he joined a much better Carolina Hurricanes team with 1.47 points per game. Imagine what he can do playing on the same line as Nikita Kucherov.
The Lightning made the right move to bring back McDonagh. He still has plenty left in the tank, and his absence has been felt on the much thinner defense since he was traded to the Predators in 2022. He also brings leadership. After all, he used to wear an “A” for the Lightning. Losing Stamkos’ leadership is a legitimate concern, but at least they added a familiar leader.
Yes, it’s not great to add McDonagh and lose Sergachev, and Moser won’t fully replace his offensive production. But the defensive production will be there. Moser has shown he can block over 120 shots a season and is not afraid to be physical with 99 hits. There’s always the chance he will take a step forward in his development, giving the team a strong defenseman at a much cheaper cap hit.
The Lightning have also improved their prospects. They acquired Conor Geekie from Utah in the Sergachev trade, adding a key building block who could make an impact as soon as this season. This could also be the season when forward Gage Goncalves shines. He was an American Hockey League (AHL) All-Star last season and is ready to move up to the highest level.
Also, let’s be real. A lot of this season is contingent on how well goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy performs. Things might have turned out better last season if he hadn’t been a few months removed from back surgery. This season will be no different. Still, management addressed its defensive issues while filling a gap in offensive production. They have also added pieces for the future. I would say the Lightning are very much a playoff team and are better positioned to win more Cups in the future.
Nick Haydon – No
Well said, Harrison. Now, I have the unenviable position of arguing why the team will be worse. I am not excited about it because, like Fox Mulder says, “I want to believe.”
Guentzel is a legitimate replacement for Stamkos’ offensive production. Heck, he might even be an improvement. However, the hole Stamkos leaves in the locker room and across the organization is irreplaceable. The ripple effects will be felt on and off the ice, and I worry the team will not be able to adjust in time to be a serious contender.
If I may, here is a scenario that illustrates this: Kucherov receives the puck in his office on the power play, looks up to make the seam pass to Stamkos for his patented one-timer, and, alas, he sees Guentzel in a different position because he is a left-handed shot. Kucherov hesitates for a split second, and the power play is disrupted. That may seem extreme. The team will, of course, practice relentlessly to ensure these mistakes will not happen. Games, though, are different, and I am not sure such a seismic shift can be ironed out swiftly enough.
Related: Lightning’s Busy Offseason Bolsters Organizational Depth
More practically, Guentzel’s arrival does little to address the lack of offensive depth that hamstrung the team. Only five players had more than 50 points last season, and one of those (Victor Hedman) was a defenseman. Swap Guentzel for Stamkos, and we still have four forwards with more than 50 points.
Adding McDonagh felt right, but, again, practically speaking, it did not change much, particularly with the departure of Sergachev. He will help fill the leadership vacuum left by Stamkos, but defensively, he does not reinforce the core as much as fill in for Sergachev. Sure, he is better defensively, but his presence alone cannot shore up that leaky back end. Moser, as Harrison pointed out, has the potential to be a real difference-maker.
What we can agree on is that Vasilevskiy will determine the trajectory of this season. If he regains form, the Lightning will have many more opportunities to win. Overall, though, the team in front of him looks and feels remarkably unchanged.
Smajovits
I must say I respect the hypothetical situation you led off with. Not having Stamkos set up for the one-timer will change things a bit. However, if Kucherov can’t make the adjustment, that will be a major problem. In theory, albeit a center, Brayden Point could try to fill the role as he is also a right-handed shot. He doesn’t have the same slapshot as Stamkos, and the whole setup is different with one right-handed shot instead of two, but Point ranked ninth in the NHL in goals last season and had 31 goals assisted by Kucherov in 2023-24. They should be able to figure something out.
Kucherov also has experience with other left-wingers such as Brandon Hagel and Anthony Duclair. He is not void of experience with these situations. But, for fun, let’s get creative. Guenztel doesn’t take a lot of face-offs — only 23 last season. But they could take the risk and, on occasion, swap Point and Guentzel. Guentzel wins the face-off and immediately flips it to Kucherov to set up Point for a goal. Boom.
As for defense, they aren’t as strong compared to previous years. That is the reason they brought back McDonagh, and losing Sergachev’s offensive production will be felt. But with the options coming from trades and those being developed in the minors, the Lightning might be able to overcome it. Look at who they’ve been able to develop out of what feels like thin air.
Nick Perbix and Darren Raddysh come to mind. Am I saying they are as good as Sergachev? Absolutely not. But what I’m getting at is the Lightning can find the depth, even if slowly but surely. Don’t forget Dylan Carlile is coming up the pipeline and should make an impact this season. Players like him can help bring a fresh identity to the roster. But, as we both agreed, fingers crossed that Vasilevskiy is ready or we might be arguing moot points.
Haydon – Reasons for Optimism
Harrison, I have equal respect for thinking outside the box and slotting Guentzel in at center. However, it’s taking a lot of maneuvering to make this roster work. By that I mean look at how much hypothesizing we have to do to deal with what is certain to be major adjustments. I am not convinced that this roster improved in the offseason. It simply seems reshuffled.
There is a lot of hope for the future with the development we have seen and the improved depth of the organization. But when it comes to game one of the 2024-25 season, this season’s Lightning roster would struggle to beat last season’s roster. That is what leaves me questioning whether or not the team is in a better position to contend for the Stanley Cup right now, not three or four years down the line.
Overall, though, in addition to us agreeing that much of the weight lies on Vasilevskiy’s shoulders, we both agree that the future looks brighter in Tampa Bay. I am excited about what this season has in store, and it is safe to say are both rooting for this dynasty to continue.
