Despite the Lightning being a few games behind the rest of the NHL, the middle of the 2024-25 season has quickly come upon us. With that said, it’s time to grade how every Tampa Bay Lightning player has done in the first half of the season.
Related: Tampa Bay Lightning Jersey History
This article will focus on all their defensemen, while two other articles will focus on the top-six forwards and bottom-six forwards.
Victor Hedman: A+
Named the 11th captain in franchise history this past September, Victor Hedman looks like one of the best defensemen in the NHL this season. He’s been elite at both ends of the ice, generating plenty of offense while also preventing scoring chances. He leads the Lightning back end with five goals and 29 points in 35 games and ranks tied for eighth in defensemen scoring with Rasmus Dahlin and Montreal Canadiens’ rookie Lane Hutson.
Hedman also does a fantastic job controlling the pace of play for the Lightning at five-on-five. His 56.76% expected goals for percentage (xGF%) via Natural Stat Trick ranks 17th amongst defenders with over 250 minutes of ice time at five-on-five. When Hedman is on the ice, the Lightning score at a sizable rate of 3.16 goals for per 60 (GF/60) at five-on-five.
The Swedish defender continues to perform well in my Lightning microstats workbook. He ranks first in primary shot assists per 60 (PSA/60), second in secondary shot assists per 60 (SSA/60), and first in defensive zone retrievals per 60 (RET/60).
J.J. Moser: A-
Acquired to be Hedman’s partner on the top pairing, J.J. Moser has been a standout piece for the Lightning on defense through the first half of the season. Despite suffering an injury against the Calgary Flames on Dec. 12, Moser should return to the lineup in February. Not known for his offensive prowess, he has two goals and 10 points in 27 games this season.
Moser has been a steady presence on the blue line, recording an expected goals for percentage of 52.34%, good enough for fourth on Tampa Bay’s back end. He allows just 2.28 expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60), tied with Shayne Gostisbehere for 56th amongst defensemen this season at five-on-five.
Moser shines in the microstats workbook as the Lightning’s best rush defender. His 35.85% denial percentage on carry-ins faced ranks first on the team. Furthermore, his 70% successful exit percentage ranks second on the defense core.
Ryan McDonagh: A-
When the Lightning went out and traded back for the veteran defenseman, Tampa Bay fans knew they were in good hands with Ryan McDonagh on the ice. He consistently faces some of the best competition this league offers every night. He’s the only Lightning defender to appear in all 37 games and has a goal and 10 points on the season.
Playing the most minutes on the team versus “elite” competition via PuckIQ (further defined on their website), McDonagh controls 52.56% of the on-ice expected goal share and allows just 2.11 goals against per 60 (GA/60) at five-on-five. Despite being 35 years old, McDonagh continues to age like fine wine.
McDonagh scores as the second-best rush defender from the workbook, with a team-best 22.58% denial percentage. Moreover, he ranks third in shots via the forecheck and cycle per 60.
Erik Cernak: C+
With McDonagh back in town, Erik Cernak has played significantly better this season versus the previous two. He carries a heavy workload of minutes paired with the Lightning’s shutdown defender. He has recorded no goals and nine assists in 35 games with Tampa Bay this season.
Despite being paired with defensemen controlling 52.56% of the on-ice expected goal share most of the time, Cernak finds himself below the 50% threshold in expected goals for percentage. When not paired with McDonagh, his results drop off significantly, and that’s why he fails to reach the B-tier range.
Cernak doesn’t stand out in anything, particularly in the microstats workbook, but he’s the third-best defender in denial percentage on carry-ins faced. His limited offensive ability makes it difficult to grade him much higher.
Darren Raddysh: B
With Moser missing significant time due to injury, Darren Raddysh continues to make an optimal replacement on the top pair with Hedman. He and Hedman developed some solid chemistry last season when the Lightning started to get thin on the back end. Raddysh has been solid offensively, with 12 points in 29 games this season.
Raddysh doesn’t get an opportunity to play every night. That shouldn’t be the case once Moser returns to the lineup. His 52.52 expected goals for percentage ranks third on the Lightning back end. While he usually benefits from playing lighter minutes, his numbers haven’t dipped since facing challenging competition in recent weeks on the top pairing.
Raddysh is efficient at exiting the zone and a decent rush defender. He ranks first in successful zone exit percentage and fourth in zone entry denial percentage on carry-ins. In addition, he ranks first in rush shots per 60 and cross-slot passes per 60.
Nick Perbix: C
Following a rough 2023-24 campaign, Nick Perbix has looked slightly better this season. He’s part of a rotation on the Lightning’s bottom pairing and gets limited minutes some nights. However, he’s scored four goals and 10 points in 32 games this season.
Despite playing lighter minutes, Perbix hasn’t controlled the shot quality share as well as other Lightning defenders tasked with more difficult roles. His 47.92% expected goals for percentage ranks sixth on the back end. However, he’s still managed to control 53.49% of the on-ice goals for percentage.
Perbix doesn’t score very well in most microstats either. He ranks dead last in successful retrieval percentage and tied for second last in successful exit percentage. Furthermore, he’s a bottom-two rush defender on the team.
Emil Lilleberg: D+
While showing flashes of promise in his rookie season, Emil Lilleberg continues to earn his spot in the lineup through his physical play and massive frame. However, he hasn’t been the most serviceable option for Tampa Bay this season on defense. He has decent point totals with eight assists in 34 games, but there’s more to hockey than points and hits.
Lilleberg ranks last on the Lightning defense with a 45.04% expected goals for percentage. Moreover, he’s the only defenseman getting outscored at five-on-five with a 44.19% goals for percentage, and these results are against mostly bottom-six forwards around the league.
Lilleberg has the least intriguing microstats profile out of all seven Lightning defenders. He’s the team’s most inefficient rush defender, denying just 15.38% of the carry-ins he faces. Meanwhile, the other six Lightning defenders defend at least 20% of their carry-ins against.
Closing Thoughts
The Lightning back end was an open door of opportunity heading into the season with Mikhail Sergachev on the way out, and a few players have stepped up. However, acquiring a third-pairing left-handed defender would be ideal to bolster the roster. The Lightning will get set for their next game against the Carolina Hurricanes on Jan. 7 on home ice.
