In a post written last week, colleague Peter Baracchini offered an in-depth look at Max Domi’s underwhelming performance with the Toronto Maple Leafs as the trade deadline approaches. He critiqued Domi’s lack of consistency, poor offensive production, and sometimes iffy decision-making. Then, he called for the team to trade him to improve depth scoring.
Five Key Points From Baracchini’s Analysis
First, Baracchini noted Domi’s underwhelming performance. In his second season, Domi’s play has been disappointing. Despite his four-year deal, his overall impact has been minimal compared to expectations following his previous performances. With three more years to go on this deal, is Domi worth keeping?
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Second, Domi’s had a lack of offensive impact. He has registered only three goals in 44 games. That’s a concerning stat for a player known for his playmaking. Prolonged stretches without scoring, including a 22-game goalless drought at the start of the season and another 19-game drought later, have diminished his production.
Third, Baracchini points to Domi’s issues with his decision-making. For a supposed playmaker, he called out Domi’s poor shot selection, poor passing, and horrible shooting accuracy. All these have limited his offensive contributions when the team needed him to step up, especially in the absence of John Tavares.
Fourth, Baracchini wondered if the Maple Leafs should trade him. The trade deadline is nearing. Could Domi be a moveable asset to increase the team’s depth scoring? His $3.75 million cap hit and modified no-movement clause (a 13-team no-trade list) make him movable, though his underperformance has reduced his trade value.
Finally, Baracchini sees Domi’s lack of production pushing younger players like Matthew Knies and Bobby McMann into more prominent roles. Continued struggles could force the Maple Leafs to consider a replacement as they seek offensive depth.
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Without taking any issue with Baracchini’s analysis, in this post, I want to look at the possibility that – even if what Baracchini says about Domi’s production is accurate – he’s a player who should not be moved. The reason? The upward rise of the salary cap. The nuanced question is whether the rising salary cap and the increased space it brings will make Domi a more valuable player next season than this season and even more valuable the season after, even if his production does not increase.
How Does the Salary-Cap Rise Impact Domi’s Contract and Value?
The NHL’s salary cap is set to increase from $88 million to $113.5 million by the 2027-28 season, a trend with significant implications for mid-tier contracts like Domi’s. His four-year, $15 million deal currently has an average annual value (AAV) of $3.75 million, representing about 4.26% of the $88 million cap. By 2027-28, that cap hit will drop to roughly 3.3% of $113.5 million.
This decreasing cap percentage enhances Domi’s trade value and (at the same time) his value to the team. As teams gain more cap flexibility, his contract becomes far more manageable and valuable. Even if his production remains the same, that makes him more attractive as a depth piece. In a rising cap environment, teams will search for value contracts that deliver solid production without consuming too much cap space. If Domi improves and reverts to his previous form, his $3.75 million AAV could be considered a huge bargain. But it’s likely a bargain even if he does not.
For the Maple Leafs, the rising cap reduces the urgency of moving contracts solely for cap relief. Increased financial flexibility means the team can focus on roster optimization. However, Domi’s performance remains critical—consistent production is essential to justifying his contract and enhancing his overall value. One can always make the case that he’s replaceable for a player with a similar bang for the buck. While that might be so, he also brings other qualities that make him a player who brings value, especially taking up a lower percentage of cap space.
Considering Domi’s Contract Versus His Production
Should the Maple Leafs move on from Domi, or is his contract too valuable despite his low production? On the surface, his lack of scoring and prolonged droughts might initially suggest he should be traded – if possible. Yet, his contract’s cap friendliness complicates the decision.
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Here, I will look at three areas that make any decision to move Domi more nuanced. First is the concept of cap flexibility. As the salary cap rises, (as noted) Domi’s $3.75 million AAV will take up a smaller portion of the payroll, making it an increasingly manageable asset for the Leafs or any potential trade partner.
Second, will Domi’s trade value increase? Although his production might be subpar, if a playoff contender needs a physical depth forward or sees potential in his prior 20-goal seasons, they might come to see his contract as highly valuable – no salary retention or include additional assets (e.g., draft picks) to balance a trade. In that case, trading him later makes better sense.
Third, Domi’s performance still matters. While his contract becomes more attractive in a higher-cap era, the immediate issue remains his on-ice production. The decision hinges on whether the Maple Leafs believe Domi can rebound to provide the secondary scoring they need or whether moving him—even at a lower return—is necessary to address immediate deficiencies.
The Bottom Line for Domi and the Maple Leafs
The rising salary cap makes contracts like Domi’s increasingly palatable, even if his current production is below expectations. The Maple Leafs’ decision to trade him concerns his performance. However, it also concerns the long-term financial landscape. If Domi can rebound or stay the same, will his cap hit look like a bargain? If not, the Maple Leafs must balance the trade value they can receive against the long-term cap flexibility their contract offers. The point is there’s more going on than his performance.
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While the immediate impulse might be to move a non-producing asset, the evolving cap situation suggests that Domi’s contract could, over time, become increasingly valuable enough to hold on to, even if he shows only a slight improvement. If they move him, they might find themselves signing a lower-producing player at a higher salary-cap hit than Domi demands over the coming seasons.
Moving Domi isn’t cut and dry. The Maple Leafs must weigh the potential for a production rebound against the opportunity to acquire a more reliable offensive asset—recognizing that the future cap environment might transform Domi’s current underperformance into a manageable liability.
