The Toronto Maple Leafs had a difficult decision to make to keep Joseph Woll in the NHL or risk losing Martin Jones on waivers. Luckily for the team, they got what they wanted as Woll has been very steady in his first season and Jones remained with the organization without getting claimed.
Since Woll’s recent high ankle sprain, which he’ll be out week-to-week, Jones came in relief after being called up when Ilya Samsonov was dealing with the flu. However, things continue to get interesting when you consider that Samsonov still hasn’t found any consistency this season. With Jones securing the win against the Ottawa Senators, looking sharp in a 7-3 win against the New York Rangers and a 7-0 shutout versus the Pittsburgh Penguins, he’s definitely making a case to surpass Samsonov. Especially, after Samsonov had one of his worst outings this season against the Columbus Blue Jackets.
With Jones playing well in a short amount of time, the Maple Leafs once again have a goaltending dilemma. Samsonov is running out of time to try and figure things out and Jones has had his moments in the past, where he has shown his struggles. But lately, Jones has been the better of the two goaltenders.
Jones More Composed, Samsonov Isn’t
Needless to say, if there was any opportunity for the veteran Jones to earn a stretch of games and prove his worth, this was the perfect opportunity to do so. He really hasn’t fared well in the American Hockey League with the Toronto Marlies, being the third string goalie and going 2-1-1 with an .870 save percentage and a 3.37 goals against average. Even compared to Samsonov’s 5-1-5 record, .878 SV% and 3.51 GAA, it’s not all that great.
Though in three regular season games, Jones looks more composed and dialled in with his play than Samsonov has all season. He tracks the puck better, is not over aggressive with his lateral movements and isn’t panicking when the puck is in the high danger area. It’s similar to what we’ve seen with Woll this season, as both have played with confidence. Samsonov, simply hasn’t.
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Even looking deeper at the numbers, Jones has much better results at five-on-five in a smaller sample than Samsonov.
| SV% | GAA | GSAA | HDSV% | |
| Samsonov | .903 | 2.68 | -2.75 | .806 |
| Jones | .968 | 1.24 | 3.37 | 1.000 |
Whether this is sustainable or not, Jones provides the depth in goal that Samsonov was supposed to bring. His outing against two tough opponents is very encouraging. Given how things have gone for Jones so far, the Maple Leafs are very fortunate that he wasn’t claimed off waivers to start the season. They signed him for some reassurance in net if they ran into a difficult situation and he came through with back-to-back strong performances.
On the flip side, Samsonov had a chance to try and run away with an opportunity, but hasn’t really shown that.
Samsonov has had three awful outings this season when he was in net, two where he was pulled. Both of those outings were against the Tampa Bay Lightning, but his most recent game against the Columbus Blue Jackets– losing 6-5 in overtime– shows that the concerns are still there. He was kept in to try and figure things out, but in that game, we saw the struggles that Samsonov continues to face letting in weak goals and not being quick with his movements.
Samsonov wasn’t on top of things on four of those six goals against. He wasn’t quick to cover the post on Justin Danforth’s bad angle goal, he hesitated going down on Yegor Chinakhov’s goal, let Johnny Gaudreau squeak one by and his glove hand was nowhere near being in position for Kent Johnson’s game winning goal. Those are all plays and adjustments that Samsonov has yet to make with the Christmas break nearing. The Maple Leafs were able to claw their way back, but his play could’ve been the difference maker as it could’ve been an overtime win or even a regulation win.
The frustration for Samsonov is clearly evident, considering that he had a career season in 2022-23. His confidence isn’t there as you see it every game with his play in the crease. He’s a free agent at the end of this season, but do you consider making a drastic decision right now considering his play isn’t at an NHL level? As difficult as it may seem, it might be the best decision.
What to do When Woll Returns?
If you’re going solely based on what has transpired recently in terms of overall play and results, Jones has shown that he can still be a reliable backup option. His outings against the Rangers and Penguins showed that, while Samsonov struggled against a weak Blue Jackets team. One has to wonder if his time with the team might be coming to an end.
While sending Samsonov down to the minors is a possibility for him to work on some things and regain his form, his cap hit of $3.55 million remains a factor. The Maple Leafs would only get some relief if they chose to do so. In this breakdown from PuckPedia, the buried threshold for salary this season is $1.15 million. If Samsonov were to go on waivers, $2.4 million would still count towards the cap. A good amount that’s saved, but it would also be better to risk losing Samsonov on waivers than Jones at this point.
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The most likely situation would be to move on from Samsonov completely and trade his full salary. As fellow Maple Leafs writer Michael De Rosa points out, his cap hit is still reasonable to move in a deal. If his play continues to go south, the possibility of moving him seems more realistic. That’ll definitely give the team more flexibility to try and bring in more pieces with the cap space they could get.
Jones Has Made Things Interesting
Although it’s a small sample, Jones has deserved more of an opportunity to earn more starts after having some strong outings against some tough competition. Going from third string in the AHL to making meaningful saves in the NHL, he’s showing that he can still be a serviceable goalie in the league despite his struggles in the past.
His play alone has created another goalie controversy in terms of a goalie who can give this team some timely saves and a chance to win. Jones has done that over Samsonov in a short amount of time, making things interesting in the crease once again.
Statistics from Natural Stat Trick and PuckPedia.
