Last season, it was Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander who was in the midst of a contract year and was arguably one of their top offensive contributors. He earned himself an eight-year extension midseason where he had 54 points at the time and finished with 40 goals and 98 points, two shy of the 100-point mark.
This season, history is repeating itself with Mitch Marner as he’s going to be one of the top pending free agents that could hit the market. He is off to a torrid start just like Nylander last season. Marner is currently fifth in league scoring with 36 points and is third in assists with 27 and is on-pace for 117 points. Since the offseason and even now, there’s always talk in regards to his on-going contract negotiations.
Much like Nylander last season, Marner is proving to be a player that the Maple Leafs can’t afford to lose as he’s showing his dominance in the regular season. He’s definitely proving that he deserves a new deal. But, should the Maple Leafs give him one mid-season, or wait until the end of the season? There’s one big difference between him and Nylander that may make the Maple Leafs hold off for now.
Marner Following Nylander’s Path
It’s very coincidental that in back-to-back seasons, the Maple Leafs are dealing with two elite players having a career season and are looking for a contract extension. Nylander getting locked up was extremely important and now the focus shifts to Marner as he continues to be a well-rounded point producer.
You can’t overlook that Marner is replicating what worked for Nylander in hopes of getting a new deal. It worked once and it definitely seems to be working right now. Marner’s impact is always felt as he’s a very important player on this roster. It was especially evident when he stepped up his play in captain Auston Matthews’ absence.
Related: Maple Leafs Should Utilize Deferred Payment with Marner’s Next Contract
In nine games without Matthews, Marner found the back of the net seven times and tallied eight assists. Overall this season, he has 21 points at even strength, good for top-15 in the league and is tied for first with Kirill Kaprizov in primary assists with 13. This stretch of play has shown that he can drive play at a high rate and has elevated his game to new heights in terms of his well-rounded game and assertiveness with his decisions with the puck. He’s a fixture on the penalty kill as he averages 2:33 per game and has a short-handed goal.
Compared to Nylander, who is more of a shooter, Marner is an elite playmaker that plays in all situations. He always has been his entire career with his creativity and ability to fool opponents. He is an essential player to this roster and if he leaves that’s a big hole in your offense that you need to fill. Similar to the talk surrounding Nylander in the event that if you lost him.
At some point, Marner is going to get paid. How much and when is going to be the big question. With another potential increase to the salary cap, it bodes well for the Maple Leafs that it would give them more to work with when looking to extend him. They could do it now, but many are wary of that option as many want to see more.
Playoffs the Only Thing That Matters
While Marner dominating the regular season isn’t unusual to see, it’s his performance in the postseason that’s hit or miss. It’s also the main reason why many don’t want to give him a contract just yet until they see how he does with a new head coach in Craig Berube in the playoffs and replicate that regular season success.
When the playoffs roll around, there are moments where Marner stands out, but never fully takes control of a game. It’s also when the intensity amps up and when things get physical, Marner is thrown off his game as a result. He backs away from any form of contact and panics under pressure.
He has 70 points in 82 playoff games, but it’s the big moments where he goes quiet. Looking at his last three playoff series, it’s a tale of two sides. He had two goals and nine assists in six games against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2023 playoffs. Though against the Florida Panthers, he registered only one goal and two assists in five games. Against the Boston Bruins in 2024, he had a goal and two assists in seven games.
When you needed a player to step up, it was Nylander as he came up clutch against the Panthers and the Bruins. When you were trying to figure out when Marner would show up, it was too little too late as he was quiet in those big moments. If he wants to earn that contract, he’s going to have elevate his play not just in the playoffs, but in those critical moments when a star player like him needs to be the difference maker and take control. If he’s able to do that like he recently did against the Nashville Predators and show some bite to his game then he can rise above the noise.
Related: Maple Leafs’ Defense Unsung MVP During Matthews’ Absence
There isn’t any doubt that Marner is an extremely important player for the Maple Leafs and deserves a new contract. The issue is his lack of dominance in the postseason is where some have reservations about extending him too quickly without seeing results. He’s definitely worth keeping in the fold and you don’t want to lose a player of his caliber. If you do, then you have to scramble to try and find that kind of player and that’s a tall task.
If he doesn’t show up in the playoffs, do you still re-sign him? Or do you let him walk and hope to try and replace his value in other areas in the lineup or player-type.
The Maple Leafs are in a familiar spot, but it’s different this time around.
Statistics from Natural Stat Trick.
