Monday morning, the Toronto Maple Leafs announced that veteran defenceman Jake McCabe had signed a contract extension for the next five seasons at an average annual value of $4.51 million. For him, the contract is fair value considering what he brings to the table: above-average impacts at both ends of the ice, roughly 30 points a season, physicality, and veteran presence. For the Maple Leafs, however, this extension comes as a poorly timed, predictable mistake that would have been better off not getting done — at least with the term.
Age is Not on McCabe’s Side
Largely, the issue with McCabe’s contract lies in the term considering his age. At 31 years old already, his new deal will bring him through his age-36 season, and considering that the Maple Leafs have three other defencemen who are signed through at least their age-36 seasons (Morgan Rielly, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Chris Tanev), this comes as a gigantic problem for their Stanley Cup contention window.
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While there are certainly exceptions to the rules — generally elite players are impacted by this less than the average NHLer — aging curves on the whole define players’ paths through the years in terms of two-way impact. Typically, defencemen are at their best from ages 23 to 26, with a gradual but sure decline from their age 27 seasons onward. This is most apparent from an offensive standpoint, with their impact on five-on-five expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) sharply diminishing over time, as illustrated below:
While yes, the decline is steeper from an offensive standpoint in pertinence to forwards, there is still an undeniable drop off among defencemen’s impacts there. In terms of defensive impact, there is a predictably steeper curve among defencemen than forwards. Typically, defencemen’s defensive games worsen as they get older, with an especially sharp downturn after 28 years old.
Impact-wise, McCabe weighs in at above-average in both zones of the ice — he sits in the 84th percentile for even-strength offensive impact and 63rd for even-strength defensive impact according to JFresh Hockey. Looking at the scales between the graphs, offensive impact worsens more than defensive impact on average, giving reason to believe that McCabe’s drop off will be particularly harsher considering both that his offensive game is currently stronger than his play in his own end and that he’s already defied the general laws of aging curves thus far into his career. One season or another, age will become a factor in his game, and it will almost certainly be during this contract.
Maple Leafs Have Younger, Similar Player in Liljegren
Like it or not, the statistics behind the comparison here don’t lie — Timothy Liljegren is a very similar player to McCabe. Whereas the latter of the two ranks in the 84th percentile offensively and 63rd defensively, Liljegren is in the 83rd and 71st, respectively. In terms of point production, he too has ceilinged out at around 25 points, though admittedly his peak is five fewer points than McCabe’s (23 versus 28). The caveat there is that Liljegren did it in fewer games (55 versus 73).
Liljegren’s contract is much more favorable, too, with the 25-year-old defenceman being signed at $3 million for the next two seasons. With that extra $1.5 milliion to play with, the Maple Leafs would have a bit more wiggle room in an increasingly-more difficult cap situation. Plus, as the aging curves prove, Liljegren isn’t looking at a steep drop off in play anytime soon. For McCabe’s sake, I’m glad he got the contract he did, but it would have been much better for the Maple Leafs if the two sides came to the agreement that he moved on to free agency, especially with a player like Liljegren in the system already.
