These are not the same Toronto Maple Leafs of seasons past. They’re off to a slow start, totaling a 9-9-3 record across their first 21 games, putting them out of a playoff spot. There’s plenty that’s gone wrong for the Maple Leafs. Injuries, poor goaltending, and shoddy defense. They’re all contributing factors, but it’s also a skill and pace issue.
Foot speed and playing a slower style of hockey are problems, but it goes even further than that (From ‘Toronto Maple Leafs after 20 games: Why their lack of speed is becoming a big issue’ – The Athletic, 11/19/2025). The Maple Leafs sorely miss Mitch Marner. This is not to say they should have re-signed him. It was time for that marriage to end, but they have not done much to replace him in their lineup, and they’re feeling the effects of not having his skill in their top six.
Maple Leafs Could Use Marner’s Play-Driving
The Maple Leafs’ defense is an issue. They’ve been one of the worst rush defense teams in the NHL, and it’s affected their goaltending. However, it’s hard to ignore what taking someone like Marner out of the lineup does, especially with injuries to Auston Matthews and, most recently, Matthew Knies.
Although Marner’s top skating speed ranked in the 97th percentile a season ago, historically, he’s not the fastest skater. But even though that’s the case, Marner’s ability to process the game and play fast is something the Maple Leafs could use in their lineup today.
It’s not just Marner’s skill that the Maple Leafs miss, though. In his final season in Toronto, the Maple Leafs generated 2.78 expected goals per 60 minutes when he was on the ice at five-on-five and scored 3.15 actual goals per 60 minutes. He’s one of the best play-driving wingers in the NHL, so it’s no surprise the Maple Leafs are missing him to start the season.
They routinely out-chanced and outshot their opponents when Marner was on the ice. Their scoring chance and high-danger chance shares were 9.5 and 10.2 percent worse when Marner wasn’t on the ice last season. The same is true of their xG share (xG%), which was nearly five percent worse when he was off the ice.
Marner was a 100-point scorer. Those obviously don’t grow on trees, but it also makes them harder to replace. Perhaps next to impossible to replace. Still, it’s hard to look at what general manager Brad Treliving has done since last season’s trade deadline and think he’s emphasized getting more skilled.
Additions since last season’s trade deadline include Scott Laughton, Nicolas Roy, Dakota Joshua, Matias Maccelli, and Brandon Carlo. Laughton has been a disaster since the Maple Leafs acquired him, while Roy and Joshua have struggled in their first seasons with the team.
Maccelli has played the best so far and looks poised for a 40-50 point season, but that’s just a fraction of what Marner brought to the table. No one expects Treliving to find another 100-point scorer to replace Marner, especially since free agency appears dead, but they’ve seemed to double down on grit and have paid for it by not getting more skilled and faster.
Matthews’ Decline Has Become More Noticeable Without Marner
One talking point of the Maple Leafs’ decline that may not be getting discussed enough is Matthews’ decline. One way to tell when a player may be falling off is how much time they spend in the offensive zone, which Justin Bourne highlighted in a recent piece for Sportsnet:
Slowly but surely, Matthews is spending much less time in the offensive zone. Other metrics that Bourne used in his article were hardest shot speed and top skating speed, which have also declined for Matthews. You may be wondering what this has to do with Marner? They were frequent linemates a season ago, logging over 766 minutes together.
Marner was a significant factor in Matthews’ success, too. As linemates, the two of them had an xG% of 54.7 percent and a goal differential of +13 (44-31). Matthews only spent 186 minutes away from Marner during the 2024-25 season, but the numbers were stark. His xG% dropped to 45.76 percent, and his scoring and high-danger chance shares were underwater.
Related: Kypreos’ Theory About an Auston Matthews Trade Might Have Merit
Is this to say Marner carried Matthews last season? I think the sample away from Marner is a bit too small to know for certain, but there’s enough to suspect that may have been the case. As Bourne’s chart shows above, Matthews’ offensive zone time has been declining for a few seasons, so Marner was there to cover it up, at least last season.
Now, without that extra play-driving, Matthews’ decline has become more noticeable. Knies, who’s been one of Matthews’ most common linemates this season, is a good player, but he doesn’t have Marner’s play-driving ability. That can certainly make a significant difference in how they perform at five-on-five.
Where Do the Maple Leafs Go From Here?
The Maple Leafs are in a precarious spot. American Thanksgiving is less than a week away, and we know that’s an important benchmark in the season. Nearly 75 percent of teams in a playoff spot on American Thanksgiving end up clinching a postseason berth. If they don’t go on a bit of a run over the next few days, things will get a bit dicier than they already are.
Another problem facing the Maple Leafs is that they don’t have their first-round pick unless they select in the top five. So what do you do if you’re Treliving? If the season really goes off the rails, selling what you can and doing a one-year tank to ensure a top-five pick would be the smart move. Get a high pick in a loaded draft, and look to retool for 2026-27.
The other option is to throw all your chips in and make a push for the playoffs. That may not be the worst decision, given the state of the Atlantic Division, but they need to get their priorities right.
It’s fair to say they’re missing the skill that Marner provided in their top six. Treliving cannot target more Laughtons or Roys, and if Matthews is truly declining and isn’t as dominant as he used to be, they will need to shore up their lineup with players who perform well at five-on-five.
It’s almost impossible to replace a 100-point scorer. But adding some more goal-scoring and getting younger to make up for what they’ve lost in Marner should be a priority for Treliving in the weeks and months ahead.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, NHL EDGE
