It was just under a month ago when I wrote that the Toronto Maple Leafs’ new general manager Brad Treliving wouldn’t be afraid to pull the plug on the William Nylander situation and move the member of the team’s core four. While I stand by that, I want to make it clear off the hop that I don’t think it’s the right move.
That opinion was justified even more recently when it surfaced just how dominant of a playmaker Nylander has been — especially last season. Now, that doesn’t excuse some of the liabilities in his game, but it should justify why the Maple Leafs and Treliving need to make a solid push to lock him up with a good deal that can benefit both the team and the player.
After all, while it may be a metric that some aren’t willing to take into consideration, passing data from the 2022-23 season at a 5v5 per 60 minutes played rate shows that Nylander is among the best playmakers in the game — at least he was last season.
What is Passing Score?
Now, let’s jump on board with advanced analytics for a moment — even if you’re not a big believer in how they break down the game of hockey. According to this chart, the Maple Leafs had two of the top-six playmakers in the game in 2022-23 at 5v5.
The chart takes into consideration passing data collected at 5v5 and on a per-60 minute rate. It breaks down the passing by type into categories, including cross-slot, behind-net, low-high, one-timer, deflection, rebound, non-chance shots and more. By doing so, and by weighting that data based on league average shot percentage, the creator comes up with a number that they refer to as Passing Score Per 60.
They also explain this metric as follows: “The idea here is that we have detailed passing data and we also know league average shooting percentage for shots off cross-slot, low-high, behind the net, etc. So that provides weights to give an estimate independent of their line mates finishing skill.”
So what does this mean for Nylander?
Nylander’s Playmaking Amongst the Best
Well, let’s look at the chart and how his numbers broke down this season. Nylander is coming off a career-year. He played in all 82 games during the regular season, finished with a career-high in goals (40), assists (47) and points (87) and had the second-highest shooting percentage of his career at 13.7 percent on a career-high 293 shots.
Add another 10 points in 11 playoff games, including six assists and it can be argued that Nylander was the team’s most consistent player from the start of the season right through to the end of their second-round exit.
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League-wide, Nylander finished tied for 40th in the NHL in assists. He was 20th in points and 47th in primary assists. Of his 47 assists, 27 were primary markers with 13 of them coming at 5v5. So, how is he amongst the best in the league?
Well, based on the numbers in the chart, Nylander ranked tied for sixth among playmakers at 5v5 per 60 minutes in 2022-23 with a passing score of 1.33. He came in behind only Nathan MacKinnon (1.39), Artemi Panarin (1.41), Connor McDavid (1.47), Kevin Fiala (1.48) and Mitch Marner (1.59).
As for these metrics, they are created to give perspective to a players’ overall contributions by using a combination of statistics and putting them into one easy-to-read stat. In this case, it’s passing score.
To give some more perspective to this list, for Nylander to be as high as he is with 40 goals to go along with his playmaking is impressive. Just look at the names that he’s up there with. While his game might lack the physicality that some want from him and his defensive coverage can be underwhelming at times, his overall production is worth noting when discussing his importance to this lineup.
After all, his skating is amongst the best on the team and his opportunities created are noteworthy at worst. This past season, he played with more confidence than we’ve seen from him during his eight-year career and it showed in his wanting to carry the puck and his jump in production.
On top of that, he’s assisted on 72 of Auston Matthews’ 299 career goals since he joined the Maple Leafs. Of those, 52 have been primary assists. He’s second in this category to only Marner over that time.
So, it’s clear the chemistry exists with Nylander in the lineup. The big question is now whether or not the Maple Leafs and Treliving are willing to pay the forward — especially considering that this list indicates he’s been underpaid and undervalued as he enters his prime.
Nylander Won’t Go Under-Paid Again
We all remember when Nylander held out the last time. At the time, he was a restricted free agent and his rights belonged to the Maple Leafs, which makes this time around a little different as he’ll be able to test the free agent market if he so pleases.
The eventual resolution was a six-year term that carried a cap hit of just over $6.9 million with a modified no-trade clause in the final year of his deal — that being 2023-24. At the time, there was a number of people that said it was an overpayment for what he provided for the team.
Fast-forward five seasons and with the Marner, Matthews and John Tavares contracts, the Nylander deal doesn’t seem even remotely close to an overpayment considering his overall production during that time. In fact, some would consider it a team-friendly deal based on how he’s developed into a premier offensive player.
That said, while Leafs Nation would love to see their star players take another round of team-friendly deals to build a perennial contender with the leftover funds, don’t expect Nylander to jump on that train.
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Like it or not, he’s been undervalued during his time with the Maple Leafs, largely because of the stars that have played with him. But his last contract is another indication of just how the team saw him at the time of his signing.
Now, five years later and an average of 0.75 points per game over that span, Nylander likely won’t budge from his request of $10 million plus, while the Maple Leafs and Treliving will likely stand firm on not hitting that $10-million plateau.
Either way, it’s going to be a bumpy road for the Maple Leafs-Nylander relationship over the next year as negotiations continue or as the Maple Leafs move closer to moving the star Swede. But based on his playmaking from last season, moving on from him could be a major mistake for the Maple Leafs’ brass moving forward.
