When looking at his pace last season, Auston Matthews looked unusual, as many thought he would reach a new scoring level after that massive 60-goal season in the 2021-22 season. Instead of reaching another 50 or 60 goals in the seventh season of his career, he barely reached 40 goals to end the season. However, looking at his current goal totals, it wouldn’t be crazy to say he is possibly on pace for 70 goals. If he scores 70 goals, he will be the first to do so in Toronto Maple Leafs history.
This season, he’s taken a different approach and is now at 40 goals midway through the season. With three more months to go in the regular season, he will have a lot of time to get that 70-goal milestone if he can continue to stay healthy for the remainder of the season. The last players to reach the 70-goal mark were Alexander Mogilny and Teemu Selanne in the 1992-93 season, and since then, no one in the 21st-century era has been able to achieve that milestone, which would make Matthews the first to do it.
So far, the only active NHL players that have come close to doing it are Alex Ovechkin in the 2007-08 season (65 goals) and Connor McDavid in the 2022-23 season (64 goals). Let’s take a look at what it would take for Matthews to go beyond 65 goals.
Matthews Leads in Goals per Game
When analyzing Matthews’ goals per game (G/GP) it is very interesting how he is leading the league with slightly fewer minutes compared to other star players in the league. For example, Sam Reinhart, who is second in goals this season behind Matthews, has a total of about 994 minutes of ice time this season and averages 0.76 G/GP compared to Matthews’ 977 minutes with a 0.87 G/GP. Technically, if you round it off, Matthews is averaging almost a goal per game for players playing more than 40 games this season and has been doing so in his last five games with six goals in that span.
Surprisingly enough, Matthews is scoring at a faster pace than in his 60-goal season, where he reached the 40-goal mark 53 games into that season. He currently sits at 46 games with 40 goals and has seven more games to work with to reach more than 60 goals compared to the 2021-22 season. Of course, with every challenge comes adversity, which Matthews faced in 2021-22 when he suffered two injuries that season, finishing with 73 games played and still succeeding at scoring 60 goals. That being said, once again, he needs to stay healthy with the 36 remaining games after the All-Star Break, as a full season would give him more room for goalscoring opportunities, even if he misses two or three games, he will be able to barely make 70 if his good goalscoring form continues.
Going back to his 60-goal season, Matthews is averaging 0.05 G/GP more now than he did in 2021-22, and although it is a small increase, it is far better than his average from last season (0.54 G/GP). The only way to know if Matthews has it in him to get 70 is by comparing his pace to that of the talent he is currently playing with.
When comparing Matthews’ pace right now to Ovechkin and McDavid’s 60-plus goal seasons, Ovechkin finished with a 0.79 G/GP while finishing with a full 82 games, followed by McDavid, who finished with a 0.78 G/GP and also played a full 82 games. Keep in mind Ovechkin hit 40 goals in 52 games in 2007-08, and McDavid hit it in 48 games in 2023-24. Judging by that, Matthews’ 60-goal season probably would’ve ended the same as Ovechkin’s 65-goal season if he had played a full season. In conclusion, Matthews is going on a far better pace compared to Ovechkin and McDavid.
A Difference in Matthews’ Shooting Choices
Since entering the league in 2016, more than 40 percent of his shots have come from the front middle slot zone, where a skilled shooter like him would usually aim to create most of their chances since it gives a lot more scoring options in front of the net. This resulted in 52 percent of his career goals coming from that zone alone and exactly 40 percent last season.
However, this season he’s completely revamped his shooting zone and is evenly distributing it on the left and right-wing shooting zones, similar to his shooting trends in the 2021-22 season. As a result of that adjustment, Matthews has found more goalscoring chances in the left-wing zone, scoring 31 percent from that region of the offensive zone and another 31 percent in his favorite front middle slot zone. His shooting adjustments have been clutch and have been a major contribution to the Leafs’ winning streak.
Another thing Matthews has changed is where he is shooting on the net, and this is a common trend that a lot of players are changing due to the change in goalie equipment and taller goalies. Matthews has opted to shoot lower, and it is typically anywhere below the midpoint of the net when he uses his one-timers, snapshots, and wrist shots. This season, without counting tap-in or rebound goals, Matthews has about 16 goals from below the midpoint of the net, accounting for 40 percent of his goals.
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Matthews will always go for the wrist shot as that is where he is skilled at the most, but it has been his most prominent shot choice since he entered the league. In his rookie season (2016-17), he was successful on 17 percent of his wrist shots, then it decreased in his 60-goal season to 14 percent, went to 15 percent last season, and is now at an 18 percent success rate on his wrist shots. However, adding more shot selections, such as one-time slap shots, snapshots, backhand shots, etc; made him a lot more unpredictable.
Final Thoughts
As Matthews continues his career, the game will always change to a new level at some point, and we’ve already seen it with players getting faster, stronger, and more creative with their shots. To see a player such as Matthews score 70 goals in this era will be a treat and open up a whole range of possibilities of what players would be able to achieve.
Despite this, Matthews will always be the top point producer for the Leafs as well, and still shows it as he recently achieved his 600th career point with his 40th goal of the season against the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday (Jan. 27). He is also surrounded by other great point producers such as Mitch Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, and fellow Arizona native Matthew Knies. Now, he is entering his fifth All-Star Game and will be a captain in the event, earning every right to do so after what could be a revolutionary season for both Matthews and the Leafs.
