Do you remember when I wrote this offseason that the Metropolitan Division will continue its downward trend this season? If you don’t, here’s the link to that article. While it looks like that’s true to a certain extent, it also looks like that’s incorrect through the first ten or so games of the 2024-25 season.
The bottom of the Metropolitan Division doesn’t look particularly good, but the top half? Some of the best teams in the NHL may be in the top four of the Metro. Will that last? Time will tell, but it does look like there’s more strength in the division than I anticipated heading into 2024-25.
Capitals Better Than Expected
I had the Washington Capitals making the playoffs in the article I linked above, with 94 points and in a wild-card position. It’s early, but the Capitals look much better than a wild-card team. Their 55.64 expected goals percentage (xG%) is third in the NHL to the Carolina Hurricanes and Los Angeles Kings.
I expected the Capitals to be a solid defensive team. That’s held up through the first 11 games, as they’re allowing just 2.47 expected goals per 60 minutes. But what’s been most surprising is how much offense they’re creating. They’re averaging 3.1 expected goals per 60, ranked fourth in the NHL.
Related: Islanders’ New Top Line Not Enough to Make a Difference
The Capitals are scoring at an outrageous rate, averaging 3.99 goals per 60 minutes. They’re almost undoubtedly due to regress from that number, and looking at some individual’s stats suggests that’s coming. The Capitals have five players shooting 21 percent or higher, and none are Alex Ovechkin.
Shooting percentages are increasing around the league, so maybe there’s a level of sustainability to the Capitals lighting the lamp. But it seems unlikely they will continue to have five players shooting 21 percent or higher. The offense will come down to a more reasonable level closer to their xG/60, which could regress, too. But even then, this team looks legit.
The Capitals are 8-3-0 in their first 11 games, and it’s not a mirage. Maybe they finish in a wild-card spot, but they look good enough to compete for a top-three position, and perhaps comfortably.
What Hurricanes Downfall?
One thing that I think I seem to have gotten right in my article linked above is that people were too quick to speak of the Hurricanes’ downfall. They did lose plenty of key players from last year’s squad (Stefan Noesen, Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce, Jake Guentzel and Teuvo Teravainen), but they haven’t missed a beat.
As mentioned above, the Hurricanes lead the NHL in xG%. They might be Corsi and xG spammers, but at least to me, that doesn’t take away from them being an excellent team. That speaks well to head coach Rod Brind’Amour’s system, at least in the regular season. But they also have plenty of talent.
Seth Jarvis is one of the bright young players in this league, while Sebastian Aho is one of the more underrated 1Cs. Meanwhile, Martin Necas has 18 points in his first ten contests. I’m skeptical that production will last, but we know he’s a capable top-six winger.
The Hurricanes are also beginning to incorporate touted prospects like Jackson Blake into the fray; he has five points in his first ten games, so the talent is there. They are 8-2-0 through their first ten games and look like they’ll again compete for the top spot in the Metro with the New York Rangers.
Rangers Look Like the Team We Expected
The Rangers are who we thought they were so far. They have a strong power play and will get excellent goaltending from Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick more often than not. The one concern I’d have if I were a Rangers fan is their defense.
They’ve only played 11 games, so this will probably level out just as the Capitals’ offense likely will, but this isn’t a group the Rangers want to be in as the season progresses. They’re giving up 3.06 expected goals per 60 at five-on-five, the fifth-worst rate in the NHL. The only four teams who have been worse defensively are the Montreal Canadiens, Anaheim Ducks, Pittsburgh Penguins, and San Jose Sharks.
Right now, those look like four lottery teams. The Rangers will not be close to a lottery team, but they might run into some problems later in the season if their defense doesn’t improve. Still, it’d be tough to argue they aren’t a contender.
What Are the Devils?
I’m having a hard time getting a read on the New Jersey Devils to start this season. They’ve played the most games in the NHL at 14 and had a busy October schedule that included beginning the year in Prague as part of the NHL’s Global Series.
The Devils’ numbers look pretty solid. They have a 52.3 xG% and are playing much better defense than they did a season ago. But I’m unsure how good this team is at the moment. Nico Hischier is off to a scorching hot start, but Jack Hughes doesn’t look like Jack Hughes yet. That’s not necessarily a surprise, given he had offseason shoulder surgery. But there are signs it’s coming around for him, and once it does, the Devils might begin to take off.
If there’s one thing that seems certain about the Devils, they are better than last season. I don’t think there’s any question about that, but how good they are remains to be seen. Still, they look like a top-four team in the Metro, so they’ll probably return to the playoffs this season.
Now About the Bottom of the Metro
I’m not going to go through each as detailed as above, but this is where you can see a gap growing between the top four and bottom four teams in the Metro. The four teams in the top half of the Metro look like playoff teams, while the bottom four do not.
The Columbus Blue Jackets have been a fun story to start this season, but regression is coming. They’re scoring 3.42 goals per 60 while averaging 2.34 expected goals per 60, so they will likely settle into a bottom-four spot in the Metro.
The New York Islanders have some solid underlying numbers; their 55.13 xG% ranks fourth in the NHL. But they have a couple of problems. One) The injury bug has hit them hard. Mathew Barzal and Adam Pelech are out for 4-6 weeks, while Anthony Duclair is on long-term injured reserve.
Two) They can’t score goals; they’ve been shut out four times in 12 games. Even when Barzal and Duclair were in the lineup, scoring was a chore. Now, with them out for an extended period, things could fall off the rails quickly for the Islanders.
And what about the two Pennsylvania teams? The Pittsburgh Penguins defense is a mess, just like last season; only the Ducks and Canadiens are giving up more expected goals per 60 than the Penguins. It appears their time as a playoff contender is over.
As for the Philadelphia Flyers, it’s clear they overachieved a season ago. Now, they look more like the team everyone expected in 2023-24. Their underlying numbers are among the worst in the NHL; their 45.79 xG% ranks 28th. They might be the worst team in the Metro, especially since it looks like getting saves will be a problem most nights.
Playoff Divide Already Forming?
It’s early in the season, but a clear divide is forming in the Metro. You have the Hurricanes, Capitals, Rangers and Devils who look like playoff contenders and, in the case of the Capitals and Hurricanes, better than many anticipated heading into the season. The battle for top-four positioning among these four teams could be a gauntlet.
Then there’s the bottom half of the division, which may be a bit worse than anticipated. The Islanders are riddled with injuries and can’t score goals, while the Penguins, Flyers and Blue Jackets look like lottery teams. There’s time for these trends to change. After all, most teams have played only 10-12 games, but it appears the Metro is already settling into what could be the playoff race down the stretch.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
