If there’s one thing the William Nylander deal just proved, it’s that Leon Draisaitl is going to get paid. Nylander’s eight-year, $11.5 million AAV extension has put Draisaitl into an entirely new echelon of the NHL contracts. How the Edmonton Oilers navigate that will be a huge issue. Then, when you factor in Connor McDavid’s deal, the situation in Edmonton over the next few seasons is downright scary.
Draisaitl, a bona fide superstar, and whose current eight-year, $8.5 million AAV contract signed in 2017 concludes after the upcoming season and is a steal of a deal. It’s also a deal that is close to needing an extension. When it comes to his next contract, an average annual value (AAV) starting at a minimum of $12.5 million for a similar duration, might be the best-case scenario. The possibility of a $13 million per season deal, maybe even $14 million isn’t a stretch.
As Daniel Bugent-Bowman of The Athletic writes:
The Oilers were always going to have to pay handsomely if they wanted any hope of retaining Draisaitl beyond June 2025. It appears the Nylander contract has only driven up that price point. Oh, and lest anyone forget, McDavid needs a new contract by July 1, 2026.
source – ‘Projecting the Oilers’ 2025-26 salary-cap situation with a Leon Draisaitl extension’ – Daniel Nugent-Bowman – The Athletic – 01/09/2024
Nylander’s eight-year, $11.5 million cap hit serves as merely the baseline for Draisaitl, 28, who is only six months older. With an impressive resume boasting three 50-goal seasons, a Hart Trophy, and a scoring title, Draisaitl is expected to command essentially whatever he wants. If the Oilers won’t give it to him, someone will.
Draisaitl Starts at Auston Matthews’ Number
Rob Brown was asked for a projection during Monday night’s Got Yer’ Back show and said that Draisaitl’s ask will start at Auston Matthews’s number, which is $13.25 million per season. “Over the last five years, Leon has been the second-best player in the world.” He adds that it won’t be less than $13-$14 million and notes that a team-friendly deal is unlikely because he’s been playing on a team-friendly deal for years now.
Jason Strudwick suggested that the term might change the number slightly, but he’s not sure what the Draisaitl camp might be thinking. Strudwick says that because Draisaitl is that much better than Nylander, the number starts at $13 million. He added, “There’s no such thing as a hometown discount.”
The Next Question Becomes McDavid’s Contract
While I can’t say I agree, Brown noted that McDavid could come in around $18 million and maybe tickling $20 million per season by the time his contract is up for renewal. That’s high and it will be based on a percentage of the cap, so it’s hard to know until those numbers come out. The point is, things won’t get easier for the Oilers over the next few seasons.
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Even if the cap is at $95 million by the time McDavid needs a new deal, at around 15% of the cap, he’ll be a $15-$16 million player. When you factor in numbers going to Draisaitl, and eventually Evan Bouchard, the Oilers’ cap situation gets particularly tricky.
McDavid has every right to be the highest-paid player in the NHL at any given time and by a significant margin. He might be open to trying to make things work so the club can sign players around him, but there’s only so far he’ll go — as he should.
To estimate that these two players will cost the Oilers $28-$30 million per season in a few year’s time isn’t that out to lunch. No one thought Nylander was going to get more than $10 million when the conversations about his extension began. He just got a whopping $12 more over the term of his deal than most people were expecting.
