In February 2023, Ken Holland made his boldest move as the Edmonton Oilers general manager when he dealt Tyson Barrie, Reid Schaefer, and a first-round pick to acquire Mattias Ekholm from the Nashville Predators. Not only did he pick up a legit top-pair defenceman in Ekholm, but he also created an opening for Bouchard to graduate into an elevated role. The early reactions to the trade were widely positive, but few could have predicted the trade would be as franchise-altering for the Oilers as it has. The Ekholm-Bouchard duo has become one of the league’s elite defensive pairs.
Ekholm and Bouchard Have Dominated the Opposition
One of the most straightforward ways to measure the dominance of a defensive pair is by looking at how well they outscore and out-chance the opposition. Goal share (GF%) in hockey refers to the percentage of total goals scored by a team (if you outscore the opposition 7-3, for example, that’s a GF% of 70). Expected goal share (xGF%) is the same concept, but it measures the share of expected goals rather than actual goals. Expected goals estimate how likely each shot attempt is to become a goal based on factors like shot type and location. Per JFresh, the Oilers have a GF% of 65.8 and an xGF% of 59.3 when Ekholm and Bouchard are on the ice together at 5-on-5. How dominant is that compared to other notable pairs?
According to this chart, if you take every defensive pair since 2007-08 with over 1,000 minutes of ice time (TOI) together, Ekholm and Bouchard have the second-best combined GF% and xGF% behind only Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk. Simply put, they have gotten some of the most dominant results of any defensive pair in the last 15 years.
You might think, ‘They play a ton with Connor McDavid; of course, they’re going to outplay the opposition.’ Playing with the best in the world helps, but the results away from McDavid have still been fantastic. In just under 521 minutes of TOI, the Ekholm-Bouchard pair has a 61.72 GF% and a 57.11 xGF% when McDavid is off the ice.
They aren’t just feasting on favourable matchups either. Ekholm and Bouchard are the top two Oiler defencemen this season in TOI against elite competition, according to PuckIQ. They also have by far the best results in those minutes, with both achieving a GF% above 54 against the toughest matchups.
This duo has proven that they can provide dominant results in any situation. It doesn’t matter what matchup they’re facing or what teammates they play with. They always seem to find a way to be successful. That is the mark of an elite duo.
What Makes Ekholm and Bouchard Work Together as a Unit?
The Ekholm-Bouchard duo provides some of the most dominant results of any D-pair in the NHL, but why is that the case? Why do these two have so much synergy? Starting in the offensive zone, it’s clear that one of the hallmark attributes of this duo is that they both possess a heavy shot. According to NHL EDGE, Bouchard leads the NHL in 90-plus MPH shots this season with 106. The second most? Victor Hedman with 64. Bouchard fires more heaters at the net than anyone else in the league, and it’s not even close.
Lately, Ekholm has been on an offensive hot streak, partly because he has been shooting the puck with confidence. His average shot speed is in the 83rd percentile, making him among the league’s harder-shooting defencemen. When he’s feeling confident and letting the puck fly, the combined shooting threat for this pair is ridiculous. Put them on the ice with players like McDavid or Hyman, who can create chances closer to the slot, and you have a nightmare scenario for the opposition where danger lurks in every area of the ice.
Another area where Bouchard excels is his transitional game. He’s the best puck-moving defenceman the Oilers have had in recent memory. He has excellent vision and confidence with his passing. Ekholm is a capable puck mover, but it’s far from the biggest strength of his game. He’s at his best when he doesn’t have to be the primary breakout passer and can focus more on his strengths. Being next to Bouchard certainly helps in this regard.
Related: Bouchard is Oilers’ Best Offensive Defenceman Since Coffey
The defensive zone is where Ekholm shines the most. Not only does he play sound positional defence, but he’s also a fantastic puck retriever. He ranks in the 86th percentile among all NHL skaters in successful retrieval percentage. Bouchard is also an underrated puck retriever, ranking in the 70th percentile. It is challenging for opposing players to dump and chase on this duo.
While Bouchard has his strengths, like denying zone entries and making good breakout passes, there’s no doubt Ekholm is the better of the two defensively. He is one of the best at using his strength and size to win battles and prevent the opposition from cycling, and he commits fewer turnovers than Bouchard. It helps a younger D-man to have a poised veteran partner with a great hockey IQ. With all of that being said, Bouchard deserves more respect for his contributions to preventing goals against. Moving the puck out of the defensive zone and keeping it out is an important piece of the puzzle.
Do Ekholm and Bouchard Have Norris Trophy Potential?
If they’re one of the league’s best defensive pairs, should Bouchard and/or Ekholm be in the running for the Norris Trophy? Ekholm is one of the most underrated defencemen in the league, and he should be getting some consideration. Unfortunately, he gets less powerplay time than other top-pair defencemen and doesn’t rack up as many points as other candidates. His contributions to the offensive side of the game are positive, but he’s quite a ways behind some of the superstars like Quinn Hughes and Adam Fox. For this reason, Ekholm won’t be winning the Norris this year, but he might appear on a couple of ballots.
As for Bouchard, he has a great chance of being nominated. His offensive production is among the best in the league for defencemen, and his ability to drive possession and move the puck keeps goals-against low. While he has the potential to win someday, I predict that Hughes will have the votes to win the Norris Trophy for 2023-24.
Ekholm and Bouchard Will Be Leaned on Heavily in the Playoffs
With just a few weeks remaining in the regular season, the Oilers are nearing another postseason appearance, and their top defensive pair will be more crucial than ever. They have relied on Ekholm and Bouchard to play tough minutes all season, and if they are to have any success in the playoffs, this duo will need to be lights out.
