Last season, the Edmonton Oilers pulled off two deadline deals to help their run at the Stanley Cup. While Nick Bjugstad was a good addition, bringing in Mattias Ekholm is one of the greatest deadline trades that the Oilers have ever pulled off.
The trade was as follows: The Oilers received Ekholm and a 2024 sixth-round pick and the Nashville Predators received Tyson Barrie, Reid Schaefer, a 2023 first-round pick, and a 2024 fourth-round pick. At the time, it might have seemed like a steep price, giving up a roster player in Barrie, a prospect taken in the first round the year before, another first-rounder, and a fourth only to retain four percent salary ($250,000), but it couldn’t have worked out better for the Oilers and worse for the Predators (from “Lowetide: How the Edmonton Oilers are undergoing a changing of the guard on defence”, The Athletic, Dec. 28, 2023).
Ekholm has been stellar since he arrived in Edmonton. His impact has extended passed his play and changed the way Evan Bouchard played as well being his everyday defence partner. The pairing has led the Oilers in five-on-five ice time, while putting up amazing numbers.
According to Natural Stattrick, since Ekholm arrived, the pairing’s Corsi for percentage is 61.39, shots for percentage is 59.09, goals for percentage is 65.22 (60 goals for and 32 against), expected goals for is 63.68, scoring chances for is 63.44, and high danger chances for percentage is 63.44. Anything above 55 percent is very good, with almost stat above 60 percent, this pairing is on another level entirely.
On the other side, Barrie was holding Bouchard back, so he had to go. He was taking power-play minutes away from Bouchard and was also considered a liability in his own end. The deal also removed his cap hit of $4.5 million AAV (average annual value) for last season and this one.
Bouchard has since played at over a point-per-game pace, while Barrie has been a healthy scratch and isn’t a fit in Nashville. Who knows if a similar situation could have happened in Edmonton if he hadn’t been moved.
As for the rest of the trade, Schaefer has not lived up to expectations since turning pro. The late first-round pick barely recorded over a point-per-game in the Western Hockey League (WHL) the year after being drafted, recorded just three assists in 12 games in the Memorial Cup and World Junior Championship combined and has one goal and six points in 33 games in the American Hockey League (AHL) this season.
At this rate, it will take at least three seasons for Schaefer to even have a shot at playing an NHL game – assuming he improved enough. Tanner Molendyk, the player the Predators drafted with the Oilers’ first-round pick this past summer, isn’t anything special but is better than Schaefer. As a defenceman, it will take him a while to reach the NHL.
Overall, the Oilers got a huge piece of the puzzle to help them win a Cup as Ekholm still has two more years remaining on his deal after this one. They moved out a weak link, a prospect chosen 32nd overall, another late first-rounder, and a mid-round draft pick for a player who has been worth so much more to the team. Edmonton still has their first-round pick and their Stanley Cup window is open, so another one of these trades could put them over the top.
Who Makes That Difference For The Oilers?
What positions should the Oilers target to find their steal of the trade deadline this season? Stuart Skinner has been very good lately, so the Oilers don’t need to acquire a starting goaltender. They need to think smaller, so there will be no big acquisitions in net when it comes to giving Skinner the support he needs.
This leaves a forward and a top-four right-shot defenceman. It may be tough to execute a trade for both, or all three if they are also vying for a backup goalie, but even one of these options would make a big difference. The Oilers either need to replace Cody Ceci with an upgrade (as they did with Barrie) or add a second-line right-winger or a third-line centerman. Here are some options:
Travis Konecny, Philadelphia Flyers
If we’re talking about a potential game-changer, Travis Konecny is the top-six winger that the Oilers have been searching for. He can consistently score goals and produce offensively without the power play as it has been abysmal in Philadelphia. The Philadelphia Flyers winger logs a ton of minutes and plays with grit.
The Flyers weren’t expected to compete for a playoff spot this season, but they are very much in the race. This may not change their plans to sell and go through an actual rebuild, but it might delay them. With another year left on his deal at $5.5 million AAV, any rate of production close to what Konecny brings consistently on a weaker offensive Flyers team would be a massive win for the Oilers, even if it costs them a roster player, a prospect, and another first-round pick.
Jakob Chychrun/Artem Zub, Ottawa Senators
The Ottawa Senators have again failed to meet expectations. After the moves they made, this, of all seasons, was expected to be one where they were in playoff contention. That hasn’t been the case, and they will be making at least a couple of impactful moves before the deadline. While Vladimir Tarasenko may be worth a look from the Oilers to be a top-six right-winger, there are more impactful long-term targets on the back end.
As it stands, the Senators will be paying over $25 million AAV to four defencemen: Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot, Jakob Chychrun, and Artem Zub. While Sanderson is not going anywhere, Chabot is also pretty safe for the time being. Chychrun and Zub’s contracts end sooner, and the Senators need to make a change, as they are stuck in this loop of losing.
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Both are suited to play on the right side and are an upgrade over Ceci. While the cap hit would be fairly similar, the Oilers would be acquiring a defenceman who is signed past this season and could help in multiple Cup runs. Darnell Nurse desperately needs a new defence partner, and that is the reason enough for a move like this. Chychrun would likely cost more even though he is only signed through next season, but Zub would provide more value longer (2027).
It isn’t realistic to think the Oilers would be able to keep Chychrun after his contract ($4.6 million AAV) expires. The haul wouldn’t be as much as what the team paid for Ekholm but has the potential to be very worth it. The Senators might become desperate to make a change, and general manager Steve Staios has a connection to the Oilers.
Edmonton might be able to pull off one trade for a player who isn’t a rental so they would be paying for some one for multiple playoff runs. The hope is that this player will also have a major impact like Ekholm has. – Future assets and prospects have to be on the table for the Oilers to be able to win at all costs this season.
