The Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs will both look a little different in the 2025-26 season, but for different reasons. The Maple Leafs have lost one of their strongest superstars in Mitchell Marner, who opted to sign a long-term contract with the Vegas Golden Knights, while the Oilers have made some minor changes both on the ice and behind the bench, with some coaching changes. One thing both teams haven’t seemed to focus on this offseason, which is different from years prior, is adding depth to their blue line, since both teams seem to have strong enough defensive depth to take them back to the postseason.
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That’s why a recent connection to Pittsburgh Penguins’ defender Erik Karlsson, for both the Oilers and Maple Leafs, doesn’t make any sense. Both of them have had their defensive cores solidified over the past couple of seasons as they both try and end their long respective Stanley Cup droughts, but Karlsson doesn’t fit the needs of either team at this point, especially considering his $10 million cap hit if he’s traded again.
Karlsson, who is 35 years old, scored 11 goals and added 42 assists for 53 points through 82 games last season. Throughout his career, he has scored 200 goals and added 670 assists for 870 points through 1084 games, which comes out to a 0.80 points-per-game average. His offensive production has never been in question, but his defensive game has fallen off as he gets older, and his defensive analytics don’t do him any favours.
A lot of Pens fans are disappointed with Erik Karlsson. I am not one of them.
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) January 5, 2024
The production isn't there (yet) but the process has been superb.
AND the Pens are dominating with him on the ice at 5v5 – a 57% xGoal share and a 62% actual goal share. #LetsGoPens pic.twitter.com/VjNTosX6XZ
In no way is Karlsson a bad player, since he is still able to dominate the offensive side of the game, but considering the position the Penguins are in as they continue through a retool, moving out his large contract could be a fantastic move from general manager Kyle Dubas. But, at the end of the day, both the Oilers and Maple Leafs do not need to bring him in; the connection doesn’t make any sense.
What Teams Could Target Karlsson?
Fitting in $10 million is tough for any team, especially contending teams this late into the offseason. However, if a team wanted to pull something off, they could make something happen. The Florida Panthers have seemed to find a way to make everything work in their favour over the past couple of seasons, and I could see them being interested in Karlsson, but that one seems close to impossible unless Matthew Tkachuk stays on long-term injured reserve (LTIR) for the entire season, and the team can clear cap space next summer.
Fringe playoff teams like the Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, and Anaheim Ducks could all have interest in Karlsson as well, but with the trade protection included in his contract, it makes it tough for any of these teams to convince him to waive to join them, but a change of scenery could benefit both him and the Penguins.
Time will tell if the Penguins end up moving him or keeping him for the 2025-26 season, but if he gets moved, it will take some serious navigating from both the Penguins and the acquiring team.
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