Oilers’ Rough Start Has Altered Their Season Expectations

One of the worst feelings in the world is when you feel let down because you have high expectations for something. That’s how the first quarter of the NHL season has felt for fans of the Edmonton Oilers. It happens in movies, music, and everywhere in life all the time. It’s like how I felt after listening to The Tragically Hip’s Day for Night album for the first time or trying to watch Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker. Or even getting catfished by someone’s filtered photos on a dating site. HUGE letdown.

Substack The Hockey Writers Edmonton Oilers Banner

It’s the same sinking feeling I’ve had for the first two months of the Oilers season. What happened to the “Stanley Cup or Bust” mantra? It definitely felt like bust for the first two months of the 2023-24 NHL season, but there are a few small signs that the Oilers might be figuring things out. It starts with altering their expectations, and just focusing on trying to get into the playoffs. If they still have goals of winning the Pacific Division in 2023-24, Houston we have a problem.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl Finding Their Game

You have to believe that the Oilers’ 5-0 victory over the Washington Capitals on Nov. 24 was the team’s best game of the season. People have said that before, but with Connor McDavid’s four assists and Leon Draisaitl’s two goals and three points, the Oilers dynamic duo might’ve found their games.

Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers
Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Even Ryan Nugent-Hopkins chipped in with three points against the Capitals. So maybe, just maybe the Oilers’ top offensive players will be firing on all cylinders from this game on. Part of the reason for the turnaround might be McDavid’s health. Injured early on in the season, he’s starting to look like his old healthy self again.

Players Might’ve Realized It’s Up to Them to Turn Things Around

Sounds simple. People say they’re going to be better all the time, but unless you see the actions to support the words nothing really changes. Maybe on this difficult November road trip through the US southeast, the Oilers players got together and realized they were the only ones who could turn this ship around. Maybe they realized that Jay Woodcroft was a good coach and he shouldn’t have paid the price for their mistakes. And now new Oilers head coach, Kris Knoblach has been put into a very difficult position. Maybe they came to the realization that they need to reset their expectations, at least for the regular season.

Kris Knoblauch Edmonton Oilers
Head Coach Kris Knoblauch of the Edmonton Oilers (Photo by Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images)

As a team, the players have to know that there are very few options available in the trade market, and it’s up to the guys in the dressing room to make the playoffs. The proof will be in the pudding. This team has talent. It’s their heads that need to be screwed on straight. That’s Knoblach’s job to manage now. This disappointing November road trip might’ve been the catalyst for getting the season back on track. Maybe.

Oilers Are Showing Positive Signs Defensively

Well at least for one game. If the Oilers can play more complete games defensively like they did in Landover, Maryland against the Capitals then yes they’re going to turn the corner. Again this goes back to having expectations on the team, but if the players finally have had enough of this negativity and losing, then they could become the force everyone thought they’d be. Listening to guest Steve Lansky on the Lowedown with Lowetide podcast should give Oilers fans a silver lining of hope in a dismal first quarter of the season. He mentioned, “The season’s not over by a long shot. But if the Oilers do keep playing the way they are, then it’s over.”

Related: 6 Times Oilers Rallied From Being Outside Playoffs at Thanksgiving

If the Oilers do go on a run and get back into the Western Conference playoff race, teams might be looking over their shoulder if they’re higher up in the standings. Having such a tough start to the season like this can build character, and more importantly, make you battle-hardened. And if you catch fire at the right time, things could get interesting. The Boston Bruins weren’t battle-hardened enough in the 2022-23 NHL season when they set the record for most wins in the regular season. It cost them a first round playoff exit. I’m not saying the Oilers are anywhere near a playoff team but there are small signs that they could be figuring it out.

Oilers Could Be Interesting to Watch at the NHL Trade Deadline

If the Oilers do climb back in the playoff race before the March 8, 2024 NHL Trade Deadline, will they be buyers or sellers? Can they afford to wait or do they need to pull the trigger on a deal right now? If they do, they’ll be dealing from a position of weakness and could jeopardize their future. It’s fair to say that unless a new general manager is hired before March, Oilers CEO of Hockey Operations Jeff Jackson will be calling the shots, with current Oilers GM Ken Holland providing consultation.

If you’re one of those fans calling for Holland’s firing, and maybe called for the dismissal of his predecessor Peter Chiarelli before that, you have to realize that both men won Stanley Cups before coming to Edmonton. They knew how to win before. So what happened when they got to the Alberta capital? But I digress. If the Oilers do start putting up more wins in December, and do have a legitimate shot at the playoffs by the halfway point of the season, who do you add?

Great Expectations

Great Expectations is one of my favourite books by Charles Dickens. It’s the story of redemption and going from the basement to the penthouse for the main character Pip. Maybe the Oilers will follow a similar plot this season and have a rags-to-riches turnaround for the ages. They’re too talented a team to be languishing near the bottom of the NHL standings.

Can the Oilers still fulfill the expectations put on them at the beginning of the season? Possibly. But it’s going to take the players to step up and do this. Yes, coaching, analytics, scouting, and asset management are all important factors. But only the guys in the Oilers’ dressing room can make it happen. Maybe the players who wear the Oilers logo on the front of their jerseys have finally figured out that they need to reset their expectations. All the pressure from the offseason predictions was clearly crushing them. It might be time just to get out there, have some fun, and play hockey.