While there wasn’t a single game on American Thanksgiving yesterday (Nov. 23), as every team had a holiday break, it is one of the most important days on the NHL calendar. The fourth Thursday of every November has become the date when a team’s season success can be predicted with accuracy.
In the 14 full-length seasons from 2005-06 to 2021-22, 76.3 percent of the teams that were in a playoff position by U.S. Thanksgiving made the playoffs, according to NHL Stats.
Those are stats that Leon Draisiatl, Connor McDavid, and the rest of the 2023-24 Edmonton Oilers don’t want to hear, considering they spent Thanksgiving in 30th place in the standings. With 11 points and a 5-12-1 record, they sit a whopping 10 points out of a wild-card spot in the Western Conference, currently held by the St. Louis Blues and Seattle Kraken, with 21 points apiece.
Related: NHL Bubble Teams at American Thanksgiving: In or Out
But the Oilers have a long history of not being in a playoff position at this time of year, only to reach the postseason dance by the spring. As recently as last season, the Oilers sat fifth in the Pacific Division on Nov. 24.
Since joining the NHL in 1979, the Oilers have completed 39 seasons that started in early October (1994-95, 2012-13, and 2020-21 started late; 2019-20 ended early; 2004-05 was cancelled). They have been in a playoff position at US Thanksgiving 21 times, and of those, have gone to make the playoffs 16 times, for a rate of 76.2%, which is almost identical to the league average in recent seasons.
But of the 18 times the Oilers have not been in a playoff spot on Turkey Day, they have rallied to make the postseason six times, which is well above the average. So, to paraphrase Lloyd Christmas, we’re telling you there’s a chance. Here’s a look at those seasons:
1979-80
The Oilers struggled out of the gate in their inaugural NHL season and were just 3-12-5 on Thanksgiving Day (Nov. 22, 1979), four points out of a playoff spot.
In 1979-80, the top 16 teams in the league made the postseason, which gave the Oilers a lot of targets to chase down. Edmonton went 8-2-1 over its last 11 games to sneak into the last playoff spot with 69 points, two more than 17th place Washington Capitals.
1990-91
Just months after winning the Stanley Cup, the Oilers had a dreadful start to 1990-91. With captain Mark Messier sidelined by injury, Edmonton lost nine in a row between Oct. 21 and Nov. 10. By the time Thanksgiving (Nov. 22, 1990) rolled around, Edmonton was in the Smythe Division basement, six points out of a playoff spot, with a record of 5-12-2.
The division’s top four teams qualified for the postseason, and Messier helped Edmonton jump to third place by season’s end, with a record of 37-37-6 for 80 points, 17 points clear of the fifth-place Winnipeg Jets.
1991-92
For the second straight season, Edmonton rallied to make the playoffs after being on the outside looking in on Thanksgiving (Nov. 28, 1991), this time overcoming a seven-point deficit.
Rocked by early season trades, including Messier to the New York Rangers, Edmonton sat fifth in the Smythe Division with a record of 8-13-3. The Oilers climbed the standings to finish third with a record of 36-34-10, eight points clear of the playoff cutline. Six straight wins between Jan. 31 and Feb. 13 keyed Edmonton’s surge into the postseason.
1997-98
Needing to be one of the top eight teams in the 1997-98 Western Conference standings to qualify for a playoff spot, the Oilers were ninth on Thanksgiving (Nov. 27, 1997), with a record of 7-12-6, two points behind the Chicago Blackhawks.
Edmonton slid all the way down to 12th place in the conference in early January before being sparked by a series of trades that saw the acquisition of Bill Guerin, Roman Hamrlik and Janne Niinimaa, among others. Over their final 40 games, the Oilers had the second-highest point percentage in the Western Conference and won six of their final seven games to clinch the No. 7 seed.
1999-2000
The Oilers won only six games over the first two months of their 1999-2000 schedule but managed to collect a lot of points from ties and overtime losses to stay in the mix. On Thanksgiving (Nov. 25, 1999), Edmonton was 10th in the West with a 6-6-6-3 (W-L-T-OTL) record for 21 points, two out of a playoff spot.
They went 26-20-10-5 the rest of the way to finish seventh in the conference standings with 88 points, five ahead of the ninth-place San Jose Sharks and Vancouver Canucks. The Oilers didn’t clinch a playoff spot until Game No. 81 when Rem Murray scored in overtime to lift Edmonton past the Canucks.
2022-23
With 32 teams, the NHL Playoffs are tougher than ever to reach; the top three teams in each division now qualify for the postseason, while the next two best teams in each conference earn a wild-card berth.
Last Thanksgiving (Nov. 24, 2022), the Oilers had a 10-10-0 record for 20 points, which put them in a four-way tie for the second wild-card spot, however, they were technically on the outside of the playoff picture by virtue of losing tiebreakers.
After the huge acquisition of veteran blueliner Mattias Ekholm near the trade deadline, Edmonton went on to finish second in the Pacific Division with a 50-23-9 record, earning an incredible 27 points over their final 14 games.
The Oilers have a much wider gap in the standings to close this season; if the team somehow manages to reach the playoffs, it will be the largest such Turkey Day deficit that Edmonton has ever overcome. On the plus side, with 64 games still to play, they have never had this many points on the table after Thanksgiving. There’s no better date to start collecting them than on Black Friday, when they visit the Capitals this afternoon (Nov. 24).
