The Philadelphia Flyers took a swing at the fences when they traded two first-round picks to select Jack Nesbitt at 12th overall earlier this summer. A raw, lanky center who some, including myself, did not have ranked as a first-round prospect, the selection was met with skepticism.
Related: Flyers’ Top 10 Prospects: 2025–26 Preseason Edition
But what if the Flyers were right to take Nesbitt over more highly regarded talent at that draft spot? Let’s examine a couple of best-case development scenarios in an attempt to figure out his ceiling.
Nesbitt Best-Case Scenario 1: Hockey Sense Is High-End
When watching Nesbitt’s games last season, one trait stuck out for me: his hockey sense. Upon revisiting, the same is true. He’s a deceptive passer who knows the plays he wants to make several seconds in advance. With the patience to see his visions play out instead of forcing something, that’s an area that inspires confidence. On the contrary, he’s also a quick decision-maker when it’s necessary.
One of Nesbitt’s assists from last season, which can be viewed below, showcases his deceptiveness. Nobody expected him to pass this puck (not even me). Selling shot, he sets up teammate Cole Davis for a routine slam-dunk goal. Sequences like this are why he was drafted so early:
DAVIS ON THE DOORSTEP 🚨@SpitsHockey forward Cole Davis takes a pretty pass from Jack Nesbitt to put home his seventh goal of the season and give the Spitfires a 5-3 lead!#OHL | @CHLHockey pic.twitter.com/9sw9puEOA2
— Ontario Hockey League (@OHLHockey) November 24, 2024
Nesbitt’s deception can be spotted in many of his highlights, but his smarts go beyond fooling the opposition. His anticipation is a definite strength, allowing him to force turnovers and generate high-danger chances. Additionally, he’s able to manipulate the defense into opening up passing lanes.
While he’s not quite Matvei Michkov, there’s real upside in this department for Nesbitt. If he can expand on it over the next few seasons, it could be a star-caliber trait. His path to NHL dominance, in my eyes, hinges on hockey sense.
Nesbitt Best-Case Scenario 2: Big Body Becomes a Defining Trait
At 6-foot-4 and 185 pounds, Nesbitt’s most obvious strength comes with his size. But to me, using it effectively is a work in progress. He’s shown a willingness to engage physically, and there were times when he was a genuine nuisance to play against due to that outlier frame. His final form, however, has not yet been unlocked.
Nesbitt is effective in the net-front, which he relayed to NHL.com. As he noted in the interview, he gets to the corners and can create from there. But his hockey sense is a big reason why—it’s not pure brute force.
Just 18 years old, Nesbitt has a long time to get the most potential out of his frame. Instead of being a minor factor in his offense, it can be a major one. Having a significant physical advantage can make him hard to stop in front of the net, along the walls, and in the neutral zone—a matchup nightmare.
Nesbitt’s Overall Best-Case Scenario: High-End Second-Line Center
Picture a world where Nesbitt combines his already advanced hockey sense with a big body he can leverage. If these are defining characteristics of his game, the Flyers could be getting a high-end second-line center who can play in all situations (something he already does). A two-way, 55–60 point guy wouldn’t be a draft-day reach—it’d be a steal.
Don’t expect Nesbitt to be the play-driving type, though. If you refer back to the clip I shared earlier in this piece, you’ll notice that he wasn’t the one who carried the puck into the offensive zone—his teammate was. Nesbitt can be a complementary center for a team that has its fair share of talent on the wing.
Nesbitt was a controversial selection for general manager Daniel Brière and the Flyers. However, this optimistic projection is both exciting and attainable.
