At this point, the Philadelphia Flyers‘ goaltending woes have reached historical heights. Over their last 46 games, their team save percentage (SV%) is just .850. I went back and looked at the most recent 46 contests of every team in NHL history since the stat was tracked, and the Orange and Black sit comfortably in last place for the metric. Even the clubs that folded largely due to ineptitude had better goaltending than the Flyers have now—having a “lack of talent” is no longer a valid explanation for this phenomenon.
Can we blame the defense for this? How much longer can we expect this to keep happening? Does their new, young netminder inspire any confidence? Let’s answer those questions.
Assessing the Flyers’ Defense
As far as the analytics are concerned, the Flyers’ defense can’t explain their goaltending misfortunes. With per-60 rates of 26.42 shots against (second-fewest in the NHL) and 3.96 goals against (second-most in the NHL), it’s a bit easier to see why Philadelphia’s SV% is so low. Despite being one of the best shot-limiters out there, they allow goals in the back of their net at one of the highest rates in the league.
Even expected goals (read about what that means here) don’t do the Flyers’ netminders justice. They have the 14th-best rate of expected goals against per 60 minutes at 2.99 and are above league-average in preventing scoring chances and high-danger shot attempts. The eye test may tell a different story, so let’s get into that.
The primary purpose of these advanced stats, at least how I see it, is to correct for an inaccurate eye test. As humans, we tend to have flawed assessments from time to time. With that being said, the Flyers’ defense has its moments where they give their netminder essentially no chance to make a save. Expected goals can account for these blunders, but they aren’t perfect. At the same time, I think most of the blame belongs to the guys whose job is to stop the pucks flung at them.
When Will the Flyers’ Goaltending Improve?
I had an optimistic outlook on the Flyers this season, expecting them to avenge their collapse early last spring and clinch the postseason for the first time since 2019-20. However, things haven’t played out that way—they’re 2-6-1 and do not look particularly good. A lot of that has to do with the play of their skaters, but the play between the pipes has not helped at all.
Related: Philadelphia Flyers’ X-Factor for 2024-25: Puck Possession
The biggest reason why I felt the Flyers could turn it around this season was because of their goaltending. With historically poor netminding toward the end of 2023-24, surely they’d bounce back, right? Well, they haven’t to this point. They’ve had a .900 SV% or better in just two of their nine games, and below an .840 SV% in five of them. Nothing has changed, and there is no true end in sight.
Eventually, the Flyers will turn things around to some degree—it’s almost inevitable. But it’s also important to note that in the team’s final 37 contests of last season, they put up an .852 SV%. That’s half a season of some of the worst goaltending you’ll ever see, and the Orange and Black have picked up right where they left off. This is something that usually fixes itself, but it hasn’t over a fairly large sample. While the expectation should still be that the Flyers’ tandem finds its legs and not be a total outlier from the rest, it’s not a guarantee.
Can the Flyers’ Ersson-Kolosov Duo Get Them Out of This Hole?
Right now, the Flyers’ duo (trio if you want to include the healthy-scratched Ivan Fedotov) is Sam Ersson and Aleksei Kolosov. The former has had his bright spots in the past and is responsible for the team’s only two quality starts. He has a pretty high ceiling, able to steal games even when his team is struggling to produce offensively. He was frequently the Flyers’ most valuable player during the months of November, December, and January last season but failed to be so very much after that. It’s reasonable to hold out hope for him, but the 25-year-old will have to start being more consistent.
Kolosov had his first start with Philadelphia on Oct. 27 against the Montreal Canadiens, stopping 20 of the 24 shots he faced. While he nor the defense had a great night, there were some bright spots in the 22-year-old Belarusian’s game. His athleticism was apparent, showcasing some big-save ability. He’ll have to put everything together, but he could be the backup netminder to help solve some of the Flyers’ issues.
As long as the Flyers are turning aside just 85 of every 100 shots they face, a first-overall pick is more likely to be in their future than a playoff berth. Aside from the team simply finding its groove, their last chance might be the growth of Kolosov, their new netminder. Perhaps he can take some pressure off of Ersson and make better goaltending a reality in the City of Brotherly Love.
Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick
