The 2024 NHL Draft continues to inch closer and closer, starting on June 28. The Philadelphia Flyers hold the 12th overall pick in a top-heavy class that could be a significant help to their rebuild. It’s unique in the way that their 12th selection might just land them a high-end player, as there objectively isn’t much of a talent gap from there to much earlier in the class.
With the 12th pick, the Flyers are set to select early enough to not see the talent drop-off that is present at the midpoint of the first round. But what if they were able to land two of the higher-end prospects for the class? A draft-day trade could set them up for serious success, potentially landing two of these players. What would the cost for that potentially be, and is the price a risk worth taking?
Blackhawks-Islanders Trade Sheds Some Light
On May 24, there was an interesting trade between the Chicago Blackhawks and New York Islanders that could be the precedent for what trading up in the 2024 class is like. Chicago dealt their 20th, 54th, and 61st picks for the 18th and 50th selections. By giving up a second-round draft pick to move up two spots in the middle of the first round and four spots in the middle of the second, the Blackhawks are essentially sharing how many prospects they regard highly. They are probably excited about 18 players on the dot.
Chicago’s thought process for the deal likely was that they wanted to be certain a good player would fall into their lap. What they gave up essentially breaks draft-day value charts, but this class is hard to analyze using that. The Blackhawks aren’t ignorant of the importance of value in draft picks, they likely just realize how important it is to have a better pick in the top round.
At 18, the Blackhawks will probably be looking at prospects in the realm of Adam Jiricek, Michael Hage, and Trevor Connelly. Ratings can vary on these three players, but they seem to have legitimate top-half-of-the-lineup potential based on their stats and eye tests. Instead of just hoping one of those players (or one similar) falls, they are pretty much guaranteed to get one.
However, we’re talking about trading for a selection around where the Flyers are picking, not six spots below it. If the cost for Chicago was an entire second-round pick to move up and take players who are mostly agreed upon to not be top-10 prospects in a stacked top-10, the cost to get a player of that caliber could be immense. This deal only confirms what we already knew: the meat of the draft is around the first half of the first round.
Projecting a Draft Pick-Only Trade
Now that we’ve established that it’s going to take a lot to trade for a pick that is more or less in the same spot as the Flyers, let’s project a few trades and see if they could work. They have a decent chunk of picks at their disposal, so there are a few options on this front.
Any draft pick-only deal likely has to start with their first-round pick courtesy of the Florida Panthers. If they lose to the New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final, the pick will either be 29th or 30th. If they win but lose in the Stanley Cup Final, the pick is 31st. Of course, if they go all the way, the pick is 32nd. Looking at how much Chicago gave up to move two spots, there would need to be a lot more incentive to move up around 20.
General manager (GM) Danny Briere has done a good job of stockpiling some draft picks. The Flyers have four second-round picks in the next two draft classes, one being a compensatory pick for them not signing Jay O’Brien to an entry-level contract, one from the Columbus Blue Jackets in the Ivan Provorov trade, one from the Anaheim Ducks in the Cutter Gauthier trade, and one being a standard pick that belongs to them. In addition, they have an extra first-round pick in 2025 from the Colorado Avalanche due to the Sean Walker trade.
It’s safe to say that all of these selections wouldn’t be included in one massive trade, but a chunk of them very well could. Being in a rebuild and all, it would be a pretty poor decision to part ways with their own first-round picks in 2025 and 2026, as virtually anything can go wrong. But for the rest of those picks, it’s all fair game.
It’s impossible to say, but the Panthers and Avalanche first-round picks could be a start toward getting a trade done. The Flyers might have to throw in one of those second-round picks or perhaps one in the third, but that cost seems to be a good bet. It’s certainly pricey, but if the Blackhawks trade taught us anything, these deals are going to come with some risk.
Flyers Can Trade Player for Pick
If the Flyers want to maximize their draft capital, which is probably a good idea, then they’ll be forced to make a player the main package in a trade. We can assume that they’re not eager to trade any prospects or promising rookies from their 2023-24 season, so a veteran is likely the one to be moved.
There might have to be some additional value included by Philadelphia, but players who could return a pick around theirs are Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim, and Joel Farabee. There is potential for Scott Laughton and Rasmus Ristolainen to be dealt this offseason, but their value doesn’t appear to be anywhere near those just mentioned.
This is an ideal route for a rebuilder, seeing as cap space and draft capital are both saved in the process. While it might bring upon short-term regression in terms of record, the Flyers would be giving themselves cap freedom and future upside. If you have the chance to land multiple of Berkly Catton, Cole Eiserman, or Konsta Helenius, for example, it should be explored. Their upside is far too great to ignore.
Some Possible Flyers Trade Partners
As for some trade partners to potentially move up, the Flyers don’t have a ton of options but they could be doable. Anywhere from 10-14 looks to be the sweet spot, seeing as teams there might be willing to deal their pick, and doing so would benefit the Orange and Black.
Related: 4 Flyers Targets With 12th Overall Pick in the 2024 NHL Draft
At 10th is the New Jersey Devils, but they might want to hang onto their selection. They’re a team that is built to contend both now and for years to come, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t inject more youth into their organization. They could be one of the candidates for a Konecny trade, perhaps as a rental of sorts. If they wanted to make it happen, the Flyers could make a deal with the devil (literally).
The Buffalo Sabres are right after them at 11. Similar to the Devils, they’re a young team that might want to add a veteran to their roster. However, GM Kevyn Adams has yet to really do this in his tenure with Buffalo. Their 2023-24 campaign was a massive disappointment as they missed the postseason for the 13th season in a row despite looking to be on the trajectory toward making it. Perhaps Adams is feeling the pressure and wants to make a splash — that’s the path to making a deal.
Since the Flyers are at 12, we can skip over to the Minnesota Wild at 13th overall. With star talent on their roster and one of the best prospect pools in the NHL, they are another team that might want a player who can make a difference in the present. Konecny or Farabee seem like two possible options as the main—or only—piece in a trade.
Finally, the rebuilding San Jose Sharks sit at 14th overall. After they’re done picking at first overall, they have some options to explore at 14. Once they add Macklin Celebrini with the top pick, which is essentially a guarantee, one of the most formidable groups of prospects will belong to them. Going back to our draft pick-only trade scenario, that might be smart for San Jose. Their scouts are pretty strong, so getting two or three picks instead of one might be appetizing.
After that San Jose pick, teams either don’t have a good reason to trade their picks or are simply outside of the range of the top-end players. 14th is already pushing it, so anything after doesn’t seem to be all that worthwhile.
There is a good chance the Flyers land at least one really important player for their rebuild in the 2024 draft. If they can get their hands on two of the highly regarded prospects in the class, success could be right around the corner for them as they chase their first Stanley Cup since May 27, 1975. How bold Briere ends up being prior to and during the draft will help determine the Flyers’ direction and how far away they are from contending.