The Nashville Predators have been one of the most interesting teams to begin the 2024-25 NHL season for all the wrong reasons. After back-to-back losses to the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens, they have a 7-15-3 record and are 31st in the NHL, with only the Chicago Blackhawks having a worse record.
Nothing has gone right for the Predators this season, and this is after they spent nearly $100 million in free agency during the offseason. So what’s gone wrong with the Predators? And is there a path out? Or are they in trouble for the long haul?
Predators’ Disastrous 2024 Offseason
Before getting into what’s gone wrong for the Predators, let’s review what they did this summer. Among their free-agent signings were Brady Skjei, Jonathan Marchessault, and Steven Stamkos. None were cheap, and all came on lengthy contracts:
- Stamkos: four years, $32 million total
- Marchessault: five years, $27.5 million total
- Skjei: Seven years, $49 million
How are these three players doing in the first years of their deals? The answer is not well. Stamkos has seven goals and 13 points in 28 games, while Marchessault has five tallies and 13 points in 28 games. Both players were supposed to be key cogs in the Predators building off their 98-point season a year ago, but they’re each on pace for 38 points.
That’s played a significant role in the Predators’ downfall, but it’s not a shock they haven’t lived up to their signings. There were signs of decline in Stamkos’ game last season; half of his 81 points came on the power play. There’s a reason the Tampa Bay Lightning moved on from him in favor of Jake Guentzel, and it’s because there were real signs of decline in Stamkos’ five-on-five game.
Related: 9 NHL Teams That Missed in Free Agency
The decline in Stamkos’ five-on-five game has reared its ugly head to begin the season in Nashville, but it wasn’t as obvious with Marchessault in Vegas last season. Sure, his skating has started to fall off, but he totaled 42 goals with the Golden Knights. And though he was due to regress from that total, he was still a good bet for 25-30 goals. Right now, he’s not pacing for anything close to that.
Unfortunately for the Predators, Marchessault and Stamkos haven’t even been the Predators’ worst signing. Skjei has struggled mightily and has some of the worst underlying numbers in the league, especially defensively. Per Hockey Stat Cards, he has a Defensive Rating of minus-2.6 and an overall Net Rating of minus-3.5.
We’ve seen some free-agency nightmares over the last decade, but the Predators’ 2024 summer feels like the worst one in a long time. It’s affected their team play at five-on-five, as they have a 48.78 expected goals share (xG%). That’s improved a bit from the start of the season, but it’s a far cry from where the Predators were in 2023-24 when they were one of the best five-on-five teams in the NHL; they finished with a 53.13 xG% in 2023-24.
How could it get so bad so quickly for the Predators? Andrew Brunette is a pretty good coach, and I can assure you he did not forget how to coach overnight. The problem is the roster. General manager Barry Trotz spent nearly $100 million in free agency on players on the wrong side of 30 who are/were showing signs of decline, and they’re paying for it.
Instead of adding younger and faster players Brunette needs, the roster got older and slower. The Predators now have the second-oldest roster in the NHL behind the Edmonton Oilers because of the moves they made last offseason, which falls on Trotz. That’s why they’ve struggled so much to begin this season, and unfortunately, it doesn’t look like there’s an easy path out.
Predators’ Poor Roster Construction Could Linger Beyond 2024-25
It may only be Dec. 9, but the Predators’ 24-25 season is effectively over. Their playoff odds are down to just five percent on MoneyPuck, and they’ll need an incredible heater the rest of the way to get back into the playoff race in the Western Conference.
As much as I’d like to say it’s a one-year blip for the Predators, I don’t think it is. The problem with having the second-oldest roster in the NHL is it’s not getting younger any time soon, especially with the contracts they signed this offseason. Do we expect Stamkos and Marchessault to get better at 34-35 years old? History tells us that’s unlikely.
Skjei is the youngest of the three at 31, so perhaps he can improve from a rough start, but that’s not a given. It’s not like any of the contracts are easy to move, too. Trotz isn’t going to trade any of these players after one year, but who’d want to take on a 35-year-old Stamkos at an average annual value (AAV) of $8 million for three more years this offseason? The same is true of Marchessault, who has four years at an AAV of $5.5 million after this one.
It’s just not these contracts that are the problem, too. The Predators’ overall roster construction isn’t built to be a contender in 2024. Ryan O’Reilly is still a good player, but he’s a second/third-line center on a contender in today’s NHL. The Predators were hoping Tommy Novak would take a step forward and become their second-line center, but he’s struggled mightily.
They don’t have the center depth to be competitive in the NHL this season, which compounds their problems even more. They do have some promising prospects; Zachary L’Heureux and Fedor Svechkov look like they could be middle-six centers. But it’ll be a couple of years before they can make a difference.
Still, Trotz has made questionable personnel decisions with young prospects/players. The jury is still out on Yaroslav Askarov, but they may regret that trade in a couple of years. They also gave Dante Fabbro away on waivers, but he’s looked great since the Columbus Blue Jackets claimed him. Moreover, Philip Tomasino has three goals and four points in five games for the Penguins since getting dealt to Pittsburgh. Will Trotz even make the right decisions with their young players? I wouldn’t feel too confident about that right now.
The Predators’ 2024-25 season may be over, but at least their odds at adding a blue-chip prospect like Porter Martone, James Hagens, etc. in the 2025 draft can help change their fortunes. It looks like they’ll need that because they have an aging roster saddled with poor contracts, which means the Predators could be sitting in the basement beyond the 2024-25 season.
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
