During the offseason, the Detroit Red Wings revamped their roster for the second year in a row. And while they needed to improve all facets of their game, upgrading offensive production was a main priority, as evidenced by the acquisitions of Alex DeBrincat, J.T. Compher, Jeff Petry, Daniel Sprong, and others.
With all of the changes, I wanted to know how much of an impact the new players would have in Detroit. That evolved into wanting to know how all Red Wings would produce on the rebuilt team. So I put together a statistical model that projects scoring totals for the whole roster.
Red Wings Scoring Model: Quick Background
Look, I’m sure most of you just want to get to the numbers. But before you do so and start commenting that certain players will score more or less, let me share what went into this model so you have that context.
This model takes into account:
- Expected roles of the players
- Historical shooting data
- Player age
- Contract status
- Familiarity with the coaching staff/system in place
In addition, these projections should be viewed as the central point of a bell curve. Players could score more. They could also score less. These projections are the most likely scenario for each player, though.
Related: 3 Red Wings Who Need to Step Up In 2023-24
I’m not going to divulge the exact recipe of my secret sauce, but I did want to share that the bullets above are the variables that were factored in. Now you know that some logic went into this.
Okay, with that out of the way, let’s get to the numbers.
Red Wings Scoring Projections for 2023-24
Below are my scoring projections for each Red Wings player who I expect to play 20 or more games this season.
| Player | GP | G | A | PTS |
| Dylan Larkin | 78 | 30 | 42 | 72 |
| Lucas Raymond | 80 | 26 | 40 | 66 |
| Alex DeBrincat | 80 | 31 | 29 | 60 |
| Moritz Seider | 80 | 7 | 50 | 57 |
| David Perron | 70 | 21 | 35 | 56 |
| Andrew Copp | 82 | 14 | 32 | 46 |
| Michael Rasmussen | 80 | 17 | 26 | 43 |
| Daniel Sprong | 75 | 23 | 19 | 42 |
| Robby Fabbri | 68 | 17 | 19 | 36 |
| J.T. Compher | 80 | 15 | 17 | 32 |
| Shayne Gostisbehere | 72 | 10 | 21 | 31 |
| Jonatan Berggren | 48 | 11 | 11 | 22 |
| Klim Kostin | 68 | 11 | 11 | 22 |
| Joe Veleno | 76 | 11 | 10 | 21 |
| Jake Walman | 75 | 9 | 11 | 20 |
| Jeff Petry | 68 | 5 | 13 | 18 |
| Christian Fischer | 66 | 6 | 10 | 16 |
| Ben Chiarot | 59 | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| Olli Maatta | 61 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| Justin Holl | 54 | 1 | 9 | 10 |
| Simon Edvinsson | 32 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
In addition to the projections above, I anticipate several call-ups throughout the season. Elmer Soderblom, Marco Kasper, Austin Czarnik, and other forwards will combine to suit up in 33 total games. I also expect Grand Rapids Griffins defensemen to get into the NHL lineup for three contests.
I’m not going to project goal and point totals for these players for a few reasons. First, call-ups depend on which Red Wing has to miss time. Second, a handful of games isn’t a big enough sample size to offer projections on. And finally, the call-ups don’t exactly have a ton of NHL history to factor into projections (minus Czarnik).
Per 60 Scoring Projections
These projections are the same numbers, just simplified down to a per 60 basis. Essentially, it’s my cop out in case players miss or play significantly more games than expected. That way, I can still compare their production on a per 60 basis to see if my projection was close.
| Player | GP | G | A | PTS |
| Lucas Raymond | 80 | 1.12 | 1.74 | 2.86 |
| David Perron | 70 | 1.06 | 1.74 | 2.80 |
| Dylan Larkin | 78 | 1.15 | 1.62 | 2.78 |
| Alex DeBrincat | 80 | 1.32 | 1.25 | 2.57 |
| Daniel Sprong | 75 | 1.31 | 1.10 | 2.41 |
| Jonatan Berggren | 48 | 1.02 | 1.05 | 2.07 |
| Robby Fabbri | 68 | 0.97 | 1.08 | 2.05 |
| Andrew Copp | 82 | 0.60 | 1.39 | 1.99 |
| Michael Rasmussen | 80 | 0.77 | 1.21 | 1.98 |
| Moritz Seider | 80 | 0.25 | 1.65 | 1.90 |
| Klim Kostin | 68 | 0.81 | 0.85 | 1.66 |
| J.T. Compher | 80 | 0.67 | 0.73 | 1.40 |
| Shayne Gostisbehere | 72 | 0.43 | 0.93 | 1.36 |
| Joe Veleno | 76 | 0.64 | 0.62 | 1.26 |
| Christian Fischer | 66 | 0.40 | 0.68 | 1.08 |
| Simon Edvinsson | 32 | 0.36 | 0.60 | 0.96 |
| Jake Walman | 75 | 0.39 | 0.50 | 0.89 |
| Jeff Petry | 68 | 0.20 | 0.57 | 0.77 |
| Ben Chiarot | 59 | 0.24 | 0.46 | 0.70 |
| Justin Holl | 54 | 0.07 | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| Olli Maatta | 61 | 0.12 | 0.47 | 0.59 |
Final Word
Based on these projections, the Red Wings should score 40 or so more goals than the 2022-23 team. That may seem like a lot, but there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, the 2022-23 team took a step back offensively compared to the year before. Second, the Red Wings brought in several players who are strong offensively. And finally, the players they replaced didn’t move the needle that much last year.
All together, this is an improved Red Wings team – one that should score more in 2023-24.
Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com.
