Over the past few weeks, the Detroit Red Wings have hosted several scouts and senior hockey operations executives from the Buffalo Sabres. Detroit has also had scouts at a few Sabres games. Usually in cases like these, it’s more than just advance scouting – something is being discussed.
After much speculation, NHL insider Elliotte Friedman provided some clarity:
“I believe the Buffalo player the Red Wings were (are?) looking at is Dylan Cozens,” noted Friedman in his 32 Thoughts column.
In addition, Friedman shared on the 32 Thoughts podcast that, at one point, a deal was “close.”
Going back to his December 27 press conference, Red Wings general manager Steve Yzerman expressed interest in acquiring players to bolster the rebuild. Cozens fits the description on paper – his age puts him squarely in the cohort of young players that are expected to lead Detroit’s next great teams. Plus, he already has a 30-goal season under his belt.
It’s a complicated situation, though. And that assessment applies to both the player and any potential trade involving him.
Red Wings & Cozens: A Match or Not?
There are a lot of variables at play here. Because of that, an in-season trade may not be in the cards.
Cozens is a complex valuation equation. He was the seventh-overall pick in 2019—one spot after the Red Wings selected Moritz Seider—so there’s some pedigree to factor in. And as I mentioned above, he has a 30-goal season under his belt (31 – 2022-23).
However, Cozens’ play has levelled off as of late. He only has nine goals and 20 points in 42 games for the Sabres. There’s some concern about his trajectory, too.
“Cozens’ 30-goal season of two years ago looks more and more like an outlier,” noted Sabres analyst Chad DeDominicis of Expected Buffalo. “After having a breakout season under Don Granato in 2022-23, he regressed in 2023-24. That regression has shifted to stagnation under Lindy Ruff.
“[Cozens] isn’t playing with speed or attacking the game like he did a few years ago. He consistently makes poor decisions with the puck and has trouble finishing at times.
“I’m still uncertain if he’s a center or winger in the NHL. Cozens has talent and offensive upside. But he would probably benefit from a new opportunity. There are times his skillset flashes, and if someone can unlock it again, they’ll have a nice player on their hands.”
When you add in the fact that Cozens is in the second year of a seven-year contract that comes with a $7.1 million AAV, things get even more murky.
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Based on all of this information, there are a wide range of valuations for Cozens. It ultimately depends on either recency bias or his potential carrying the day.
Since the Red Wings only have $3.86 million in cap space, money will have to go back the other way. J.T. Compher and Andrew Copp would suffice in that regard and give the Sabres a stopgap solution at center with Cozens departing. The same goes for Michael Rasmussen if another roster player was included. Obviously, more would need to be included to make the trade equitable. How much more is dependent on the recency bias vs. potential valuation of Cozens I noted above. And that discrepancy could be the reason why a deal hasn’t been consummated yet.
Final Word
In addition to Compher, Copp, or Rasmussen, the Red Wings would likely need to include either Nate Danielson or Marco Kasper in a trade for Cozens. Apart from these two, I’m not sure Detroit has the young, NHL-ready talent that the Sabres covet. In my opinion, they’re better off keeping these prospects to pursue a bigger fish – say Elias Pettersson of the Vancouver Canucks.
Despite the flaws, Cozens could be a solid addition for the Red Wings. They need size up front and will have two open top-six spots this offseason. That said, the cost will be the ultimate determinant here, and the Red Wings should not overpay for a mixed bag like Cozens.
Data courtesy of PuckPedia and NHL.com.
