The Rochester Americans are having a great season with a 21-9-3 record, which is the best in the North Division and one of the best records in the American Hockey League (AHL). They have great prospects on top of great prospects and it’s a good sign for the Buffalo Sabres. At least, that’s what you’d think, since every rebuilding team needs a great pipeline.
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The Americans can score, averaging 3.45 goals per game, and did a lot of that against the Springfield Thunderbirds on Jan. 3 in a 5-2 win and the Bridgeport Islanders on Jan. 4 in a 6-3 victory. They can also defend, allowing only 2.66 goals per game with the help of a great goaltending tandem of Devin Levi and Felix Sandstrom. The bottom line is that they have talent across the board. Not just AHL caliber talent, but young skaters poised to someday make an impact in the NHL.
It’s why the Sabres playing poorly and looking like one of the worst teams in the NHL is puzzling. They shouldn’t be as bad as they are and so far from contention with a great farm system. Yet, they are 14-21-5 and had a 13-game losing streak that essentially put them out of contention by the holiday break. It speaks to the issues and shortcomings of the front office and notably general manager (GM) Kevyn Adams, who is responsible for a rebuild that never got off the ground.
Buffalo’s Missed Opportunity
The failures under Adams can be traced back to when he took over as GM, but the big miss came at the 2023 trade deadline. The Sabres entered the deadline with a 31-24-4 record and looked poised to make the playoffs. Tage Thompson was on his way to a career-best season where he scored 47 goals while Rasmus Dahlin anchored the defense.
The Sabres also had a surplus of prospects in the AHL and could have moved a few of them to add one more NHL player to get to the playoffs. They had all the pieces in place to snap a playoff drought that went back to 2011, the longest in the NHL.
Adams got Jordan Greenway in a trade with the Minnesota Wild but otherwise did nothing at the deadline. It was disappointing at the time and even worse looking back. Imagine if the Sabres made a move with the Philadelphia Flyers, a team that was at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division and ironically, also did nothing at the trade deadline (Kevin Hayes for example, could have been a great addition to the forward unit). Or say they were the team that acquired Dmitry Orlov instead of the Boston Bruins, who only gave up Craig Smith, a first, second, and third-round pick to land the defenseman. Or what if they were the team that made the big move to get Jakob Chychrun instead of the Ottawa Senators? Any of those moves would have got the Sabres into the playoffs.
Instead, the Sabres finished the 2022-23 season with a 42-33-7 record and one point shy of the final team to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. That final team was the Florida Panthers, who went on a run and haven’t looked back since, making the Final in 2023 and winning the Cup in 2024.
Adams was quick to point out in a press conference in the middle of this season that Buffalo doesn’t have palm trees and does have taxes, the opposite of Florida. He didn’t point out that Florida also has a GM with guts and the willingness to make bold moves. The Panthers’ GM, Bill Zito, was the one who made the bold moves to get his team to the Cup. He was the one who traded away two of the Panthers’ top players to acquire Matthew Tkachuk and was the one who continued to tweak the roster in the 2023 offseason and 2024 trade deadline to move the needle. Adams built up the farm system but hasn’t taken that next step.
Buffalo Hoarding Prospects Creates a Mess for Adams
The Sabres are near the bottom of the Eastern Conference but the question is what they can reasonably do next. They can’t sell again and add more prospects to the system when they already have enough young talent ready to leap to the NHL. Conversely, they won’t become buyers and add talent when this season is a lost cause. The only other option is to do nothing, which they did in 2022-23. By doing so, they’ll be wasting more of Thompson, Dahlin, and Owen Power’s prime seasons while also watching their prospect pool go to waste in the AHL (albeit, they’ll help the Americans make a run at the Calder Cup, which has value to it).
There’s also always the option to trade away NHL players to free up roster spots to allow more prospects to play but that also isn’t a great option. Even worse, it would signal that the Sabres are going through the same cycle they’ve gone through since 2011. They’d be rebuilding after a failed rebuild and asking a fanbase that is starving for success to be patient (as though they haven’t waited enough). Ultimately, Adams is stuck in no man’s land from a roster-building perspective.
When Adams took over as the GM in the 2020 offseason, the Sabres needed to tear things down and start over. They did, and they moved out of a lot of talent to become a younger team with a better farm system. The 2020-21 team had Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel, Taylor Hall, Brandon Montour, Jake McCabe, and Linus Ullmark, all of whom were gone by the 2022 trade deadline. Moving on from those players wasn’t an issue, since the Sabres were suddenly a young and promising team. The problem is that Adams failed in the following steps.
A great rebuild isn’t only about drafting and developing. The team must add NHL-caliber talent after that and bring in the right coaching staff to take them to the next level. It’s why the “Yzerplan” with the Detroit Red Wings hasn’t gotten off the ground either. Their GM, Steve Yzerman, built up the farm system yet is on his third head coach after firing Derek Lalonde, and the moves made both in offseasons and trade deadlines have yet to get the Red Wings to the playoffs. Similarly, Adams drafted well but then failed to take the Sabres to the next level.
The Sabres Might Learn From Their Mistakes
Whether it’s Adams as the GM or someone else moving forward, the Sabres have a path to contention. Yes, they look like a mess at the moment, and with Terry Pegula owning the team, there’s a belief that they will never be competitive. However, they have some good players to build around. Thompson, Dahlin, Power, and Alex Tuch are all in their primes while Bowen Byram and Jack Quinn are two young players to add to the mix.
The Sabres can use the second half of the season to bring some prospects up from the AHL roster to give them some time at the NHL level, which would help them in the long run. They don’t need to retool or even move on from players on the NHL roster but they must find a way to integrate some of the young skaters to give this team a roster that will be young and ready to go by next season. Giving Isak Rosen, a 21-year-old winger who has 18 assists with the Americans, a depth role in the second half of the season will go a long way for this team.
The big key is if this team will learn its lesson from the past. If the Sabres are a borderline playoff team next season, they can and should make a few big trades. Yes, they might lose a top prospect, but that’s the price worth paying to not only get this team to the playoffs but also send a message that the Sabres are looking to instill a winning culture.
The Sabres are the opposite of a destination at the moment. Players within the organization want to leave and free agents want to avoid them at all costs. On top of that, it’s hard to find a head coach who wants to be with this franchise, which, in part, explains hiring Lindy Ruff in the offseason, a Sabres retread. The only way this team turns things around is if they start winning and that starts with a shift in the culture. Adams did more than enough to build up the prospect pool; it’s time to improve everywhere else.