The Ottawa Senators’ playoffs hopes could be decided by the outcome of nine games the team plays this month. They need to win at least five of those games, if not six, to stay on track in the hunt for a playoff spot.
That will be a tall order since of the nine games they’ll play, four will be hotly contested matchups with Atlantic Division rivals while another is against the New York Islanders who the Senators could be battling for a playoff wild card spot next spring.
The Senators Disappointed in October
What should concern Senators fans is their club’s record in October. In terms of points percentage (PTS%), they were a below-average 500 team. Yet what is even more troubling is that Senators head coach D.J. Smith seems satisfied with that result saying in a Nov. 1 press conference, “We wanted to be 500 or over in October. Clearly we want to be over 500, but the lowest bar is 500 and that’s what we were.”
It’s not often you hear an NHL coach claim that he’s fine seeing his team losing as many games as it wins, but there you have it. Yet to be fair, Smith later clarified his expectations saying, “In November you’ve got to be over 500. We know that.” Even so, Ottawa fans can only hope he misspoke because a simple check on the math shows that the Senators will need to be considerably beyond the 500 mark to book a berth in the playoffs next spring.
Losing half the games they played in October is one thing, but it’s the way the Senators won and lost that should worry fans on the Rideau Canal. Sure, they came out on top in tilts against the Pittsburgh Penguins, Washington Capitals, Tampa Bay Lightning and Philadelphia Flyers, but you have to remember that the Penguins are now the league’s punching bag and the Capitals’ best days are behind them. The Lightning are on the wane and were without their star netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy. As for the Broad Street Bullies from Philadelphia, they don’t scare anybody anymore. The Senators should have won those games and deserve no special feather in their cap for doing so.
What’s concerning if you’re a Senators fan is that they dropped contests against stronger teams like the Carolina Hurricanes, the Detroit Red Wings, the Buffalo Sabres and the Islanders. These matchups were a test of their mettle and they flunked them all.
What It Will Take for Senators to Make the Postseason
The Senators won 39 games on 82 starts last season for a .476 win percentage. Sure, a disastrous first 20 games made them also-rans very early, but even so, their points production in the last half of the season on an 82-game basis was 92. That would only have been good enough to win them a wild card spot. What’s more, 92 points to win a wild card spot is low by historical standards.
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In most years, depending on the division in which a team competes, 95 points is the bare minimum to punch a ticket to the Stanley Cup playoffs. Because of their underwhelming performance in October, the Senators will likely need to notch a PTS% of at least .588 from here on just to secure a wild card spot. To clinch a spot, they’d probably need over 100 points or a PTS% of .635 from now to the end of the regular season. That’s a tough challenge in a league where the average PTS% is .558.
Why November Will Be Tough for the Senators
Ottawa will play two games in Sweden facing off in Stockholm against the Red Wings on Nov. 16 and the Minnesota Wild on Nov. 18. Those two games could prove to be tiring and a distraction for the Senators.
Also making things difficult for the team in November will be their banged-up back end. Erik Brannstrom is out with an undisclosed injury after smashing his head on the ice in a game against the Islanders on Oct. 26. To date there is no timeline mentioned for his return to action.
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If that isn’t bad enough, the Senators announced on Halloween that Thomas Chabot would be out with a fractured hand for five weeks. The heart and soul of the Senators’ defence corps, Chabot’s absence is sure to hurt in November.
Finally, Ottawa’s favourite Russian, Artem Zub, is out after taking a puck to his ear in a game against the Red Wings on Oct. 21. Even so, he was practicing on Nov. 1 albeit in a yellow non-contact jersey and his return to play is expected soon.
The Senators need to see Belleville Senators blueliners Jacob Bernard-Docker, Tyler Kleven and Nikolas Matinpalo step up and show that they are NHL material. November is their opportunity to help keep the Senators on track for a playoff appearance and show where they belong.
Which November Games Will be Hardest for the Senators?
Five matchups will be difficult for the Senators to win in November. Even so, they’ll have to take several of them if they want to finish the month with a record of six wins in nine games. Here’s a look at those matchups as of the time of writing on Nov. 1.
Los Angeles Kings – Nov. 2
The Kings are coming to Ottawa after laying a 4-1 beating on Toronto on Halloween. They are a big, physical team boasting Anze Kopitar as their top centre and Drew Doughty on their blue line. Former Senators netminder Cam Talbot with his .914 save percentage will probably be between the pipes.
The Kings are 5-2-2 so far this season with a .667 PTS%. With 39 goals they are one of the top three teams in the league in the goal scoring department. They will be tough to beat.
Lightning – Nov. 4
While the Senators beat the Lightning in convincing fashion on Oct. 15 in Bytown, the Bolts seem to have found their footing and are coming back into Ottawa for a rematch boasting a .611 PTS% and a 4-2-3 record.
As an Atlantic Division rival they will have the proverbial bit in their teeth and denying them the two points they have come to collect will be difficult. They are, after all, recent back-to-back Stanley Cup champions with a roster that still boasts the likes of Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Victor Hedman.
Maple Leafs – Nov. 8
The Senators travel to Hog Town to take on the evil Maple Leafs and their godless fans on Nov. 8. They will be facing a team with a 5-3-1 record and a .611 PTS%. Toronto is an Atlantic Division rival and they will be loathe to surrender two points to Ottawa.
You can be sure their Fab Four of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares and Mitch Marner will be firing on all cylinders.
If that’s not good enough for you, then as Maple Leafs’ general manager (GM) Brad Treliving so eloquently put it, Toronto will also be bringing a lot of snot to the game with the likes of Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi in the lineup.
Vancouver Canucks – Nov. 9
The Canucks have racked up 13 points to secure second place in the highly competitive Pacific Division. They are considered a playoff contender again and lead all Canadian teams in TSN’s most recent power ranking.
They won’t leave two points behind in Ottawa very easily.
Red Wings – Nov. 16
The Red Wings are now one of the hottest teams in hockey with 13 points over 10 games. Their 6-3-1 record and league-leading 40 goals are good enough to put them in the number two spot in the Atlantic Division just behind the unbeaten Boston Bruins.
Ottawa lost to the Red Wings 5-2 on Oct. 21 and will be looking to avenge that drubbing. They’ll need everything they can muster to do it.
Teams the Senators Should Beat in November
There is so much parity in the NHL today that it’s risky to go out on a limb and predict the wins that should come relatively easily to Ottawa in November. Even so, here goes.
The sad sack Calgary Flames should give up two points when they play at the Canadian Tire Centre on Nov. 11. Ottawa can also be expected to notch a win in Sweden against the Wild on Nov. 18 after which they should come back to the nation’s capital and take two points each from the Islanders on Nov. 24 and the Florida Panthers on Nov. 27.
If the Senators can take these four games, it would take a lot of pressure off them when they go up against top-tier teams like the Red Wings, Maple Leafs, Lightning, and others on their November schedule.
November Will Reveal Who the Senators Are
Senators fans will protest that winning just four of their eight games last month doesn’t tell you who their team really is. They are better than that. Perhaps.
Yet eventually your team is who the cold hard statistics say they are. November will reveal that.
