The San Jose Sharks recently completed what is perhaps the most significant trade of the offseason. After countless weeks of waiting, the Erik Karlsson saga is finally over. Rumors had been flying left and right about a potential landing spot for the Norris Trophy-winning defenseman, but talks seemed to stall after the 2023 NHL Entry Draft wrapped up. However, fans finally have an answer as to what the Sharks planned to do with Karlsson, and it confirmed the speculation since trading Timo Meier: the Sharks have entered a complete rebuild.
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With a rebuild being the direction the Sharks are headed toward, getting as many assets as humanly possible was a top priority. However, the Karlsson trade brought in only one real asset — the Pittsburgh Penguins’ 2024 first-round draft pick. Still, they got more value out of Karlsson than they likely would have in future years. Without a doubt, the Sharks made this move at the perfect time.
Karlsson’s Future Remains an Uncertain
Despite Karlsson’s historic season with the Sharks, the types of numbers he was putting up will be incredibly difficult to replicate. On the bright side, the odds of him having another 100+ point season are much higher alongside players like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang. If he was able to put up that many points with very little support around him, imagine what he might be capable of surrounded by future hall-of-fame players.
While Karlsson has a great chance to repeat an unreal season with the Penguins, his odds of doing the same with the Sharks were not especially high. Since they traded for him, this has been the first season where he was arguably worth the eight-year, $11.5 million-per-year contract he received in 2019. Though the Sharks are not in a position where their cap space is incredibly important, Karlsson was going to have a difficult time living up to that contract on an aging team with even less support than last season.
Because the Sharks decided to trade him now, they could sell at the peak of Karlsson’s value on this new contract. While he may have had another great year, it was too risky to hold on to him for another season where his value may have plummeted due to injuries or a down year. If they wanted to make a trade, they needed to do it as soon as possible. It was not an easy decision, but the Sharks made the right call.
Sharks Able to Get a Decent Return Given the Circumstances
Perhaps the biggest challenge of a Karlsson trade is winning. The combination of his age and salary cap hit decreased his value significantly, even despite his point production. No team would be willing to give up a large amount of assets regardless of how many points he put up. However, the Sharks were able to get something out of the deal, even if it was underwhelming for the caliber of player they let go.
The Penguins’ first-round pick in 2024 will be an interesting asset. They missed the playoffs for the first time in a long time last season, which could very well happen again in 2023-24. However, the pick is top-ten protected, so the Sharks won’t be landing the first-overall pick from the Penguins. Still, they were able to increase their chance of growing the prospect pool.
Given the absolutely insane amount of talent the Sharks gave away to get Karlsson, there was no way they were capable of matching that return. However, they should hopefully land a mid-first-round pick in the 2024 draft. It’s not Tim Stutzle or Josh Norris, but it’s something. Either way, seeing Karlsson go is sad. They may not have achieved much with him in San Jose, but he was a leader in the locker room who brought some exciting moments in a few dull years. Hopefully, he can capture the same magic in Pittsburgh.
