The Edmonton Oilers are expected to be a very good team once again and improve upon the success they had in 2022-23. As with every team, there are going to be surprises and disappointments. Here, we are going to look at the positive side of things and discuss three hot takes for the Oilers this season with Jack Campbell‘s bounce-back, Evan Bouchard’s potential on the power play, and the third line.
Campbell Plays Better Than Skinner
Campbell had a very tough first season in Edmonton and the expectation going in was that he was going to be the starter while Stuart Skinner took his time acclimating to the NHL. Campbell struggled a lot while Skinner played well, so the roles reversed and Skinner ended up starting 48 games while Campbell started only 34.
The hot take in net for the Oilers is that Campbell will bounce back in a big way and have a better season statistically than Skinner. This isn’t a knock on Skinner, but I do think there is a possibility that he regresses just a little bit after such a heavy workload in his rookie season. I think both will hover around .908-.915 save percentage (SV%) and Campbell will get back to close to where his career numbers were before joining the Oilers (.916 SV%).
It would be beneficial to the Oilers for Campbell, on a $5 million contract for four more years, to start playing up to his worth. A big factor will be the Oilers having Mattias Ekholm for an entire season and it settled Bouchard down a bit and made that pairing elite while the presence of Ekholm relieved Darnell Nurse of such a heavy workload and pressure. Since Ekholm joined the Oilers, Campbell started six games and came in as relief in four (including playoffs). He went 5-1-0 with a .922 SV% in that stretch. Not only does that indicate he was coming back to his norm, but Ekholm also played a big part. Campbell’s SV% might not rise a massive amount (.020 or more) as I’ve predicted here, but it will definitely improve and has to for the Oilers.
Bouchard Will Record More Power-Play Points Than His Previous Career High in Points
The Oilers’ power play is something very special and doesn’t look like it will drop off anytime soon, if at all this season. Due to the top unit, the Oilers had the first-ranked power play in the league once again and finished with a 32.4 percent success rate. That rose to 46.2 percent in the 12 playoff games, which is on a level of its own.
The hot take here is that Bouchard, the newest full-time member of the top power-play unit, will record more power-play points than his previous career high in points. In his first full season, he finished with 43 points. Since his ice time dropped by 1:17 per game from 2021-22 to 2022-23, his points went with it and he only put up 40. It wasn’t until after the trade deadline that Bouchard finally got his shot to take over the point on the top unit after the team traded Tyson Barrie and put full confidence in the young defenceman.
This confidence paid off and along with the addition of Ekholm to play beside him and complement his game perfectly, he started playing up to his potential. Not only did Bouchard’s confidence offensively skyrocket, he did better than many expected on the power play. While he recorded eight power-play points in the final 21 regular season games, he recorded 15 power-play points in just 12 games in the playoffs. It’s unrealistic to think he’ll keep up that pace for an entire season, but it shows what can be accomplished in a stretch of games and get him to 44-plus points on the power play in 2023-24.
Foegele, McLeod, & Holloway Combine for 90 Points
The potential third line of the Oilers will be interesting this season. All three are expected to have better seasons overall and offensively than they have up until this point, and together, could really prove to be a bottom-six trio that the Oilers haven’t seen in a long time. What I believe should and could be the third line for the majority of the 2023-24 season is Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod, and Dylan Holloway. My hot take is that the three will combine for 90 points.
Foegele played great in the playoffs, making it so the Oilers really had to rethink moving him this offseason to open up space. To this point, they didn’t have to and worked around it. He really showed his worth and had a great series against the Vegas Golden Knights and has a third-line role locked down. While his linemates changed quite a bit last season and he even dropped down to the fourth line or out of the lineup, consistency and motivation will drive him to play an impactful role (from “Lowetide: Oilers winger Warren Foegele has been odd man out, so what’s next?”, The Athletic, Jan. 11, 2023). His career high is 30 points in 2019-20, but he played at a 34-point pace last season. It is pretty likely Foegele will reach the 30-point mark and possibly shoot past it.
McLeod is on the verge of a breakout season and after taking a pay cut again, will be the third-line center for the Oilers. At times when the team goes with 11 forwards and seven defencemen, he could sometimes even serve as the third centerman in the equation instead of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Either way, McLeod will likely take a step forward in his NHL development and jump up in points again. He has the speed and skill to create plays and despite only recording 23 points, he had a 33-point pace last season. He’s only 23 and has lots of room to continue to get better.
The time has come for Holloway to not only play a full-time role in Edmonton but to make an impact. He only got into 51 games last season due to injury and finishing up the season in the American Hockey League (AHL), but room has been made and the expectation is for him to play on the third line for the most part. He is tenacious and has talent at both ends of the ice. A fourth-line role again won’t do him or the Oilers any justice and while he played at a 15-point pace last season, that could double or come close to doubling with more of an opportunity and health permitting.
Related: Oilers’ 3 Worst Contracts of 2023-24
There are no worries for certain areas of the Oilers’ game, but there are some expectations for other parts. While it is a must for players like Campbell, Bouchard, and the third line to step up or bounce back, to get to the level that I’m implying isn’t a massive reach. Which hot take do you think will come to pass?
