Last week, we took stock of Western Conference Stanley Cup contenders based on preseason expectations. Today, we’ll be looking at the Eastern Conference, which has had a bit more turbulence to start the season than the Western Conference. Which teams are Stanley Cup contenders two weeks away from Christmas?
New York Rangers: Stock Remains the Same
I had the Rangers as Stanley Cup contenders when I wrote my piece before the beginning of the regular season. Not much has changed since they’ve had a strong start to 2023-24.
Igor Shesterkin has been decent, with a .906 save percentage, while saving 5.6 goals above expected. But it’s Jonathan Quick who’s actually been the better netminder to start 2023-24. That may seem weird to write in 2023, but it’s true.
Quick is 8-0-1 with a .922 SV% and has stopped 9.6 goals above expected. Shesterkin missed a couple of weeks with an injury and hasn’t quite been himself so far, so the Rangers have had to rely on Quick to get to first place in the Metropolitan Division.
History and Quick’s age suggest he will regress at some point, but Shesterkin should also improve from his slow-ish start. Goaltending is unlikely to be an issue for the Rangers moving forward. Neither is their power play, which is clicking at 30 percent, ranked second in the NHL to the New Jersey Devils.
Where the Rangers may run into problems in the postseason is at five-on-five. They have a 49.38 expected goals percentage (xG%) and are just a middle-of-the-pack offensive and defensive team at that game state. If this sounds familiar, it’s because that’s mostly been the Rangers’ tune over the last few seasons: strong goaltending and power play but average (at best) at five-on-five.
Related: 2024 Stanley Cup Contenders: Western Conference Stock Report
That’s gotten them into trouble in the playoffs when the competition gets stiff and teams are better at five-on-five. But for now, they’re a Cup contender. That much is hard to deny.
Florida Panthers: Stock Way Up
I did not even have the Florida Panthers as a fringe Cup contender during the preseason. But they have exceeded expectations and then some to begin the 2023-24 season. They’re 17-8-2 and have 36 points, placing them three points behind the Boston Bruins for first place in the Atlantic Division.
There’s a lot to like about this Panthers team. They’re an excellent five-on-five squad, having a 53.46 xG%, ranked seventh in the NHL and just behind the Devils for sixth place. They generate quality looks but also do a solid job of suppressing them.
Aside from the Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour injuries, goaltending was one reason I wasn’t buying the Panthers during the preseason. Sergei Bobrovsky had an incredible run to the Stanley Cup Final last season, but that felt like a one-off.
Turns out, it wasn’t, as Bobrovsky has been a well-above-league-average goaltender so far. He has a .913 SV% and has stopped 5.1 goals above expected. Anthony Stolarz has fared well, too, totaling a .914 SV% while stopping 3.2 goals above expected.
The Panthers have a couple of elite talents in Matthew Tkachuk and Sasha Barkov, and the complementary pieces to support them, like Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe. There’s a reasonable argument that they’re the best team in the East, especially since Montour and Ekblad have returned.
Boston Bruins: Stock Up
The previously mentioned Bruins have also defied expectations to start this season. After David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron announced they were retiring this offseason, the thought was the Bruins would take a significant step back.
It turns out that hasn’t happened, either. The Bruins are 18-5-3 and sit atop the Atlantic with 39 points. We’ll get to the skater group in a second, but Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman have once again propelled the Bruins with their play in net.
Ullmark has regressed from his .938 SV% a season ago, but that’s not surprising. Still, he’s been excellent, with a .917 SV% and has saved 4.3 goals above expected. Swayman has been even better, as he has a .932 SV% and has stopped ten goals above expected.
Offensively, David Pastrnak has led the way, with 16 goals and 39 points in 26 games. Charlie Coyle has stepped up in Bergeron and Krejci’s absence, with 21 points in 26 games. Pavel Zacha has also picked up some of the slack, with 19 points in 26 contests.
The Bruins are a decent five-on-five team, with a 50.88 xG%. I think there will be a correction in their results at some point. Their forward depth isn’t great, which is a concern and could lead to that correction; Swayman regressing from a .932 SV% is a possibility, too.
I lean on the fence about considering the Bruins a Cup contender because I’m not sure Coyle and Zacha will cut it down the middle in the postseason. But for now, it’s hard to deny they could be in the mix, given no one has separated themselves from the rest of the pack.
New Jersey Devils: Stock Down
The Devils have gotten off to a slower start than expected, especially based on the preseason hype. Injuries to Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier were a factor, but the team has played better since they’ve both returned; they’ve won six of their last eight games.
There are concerns with the Devils, mainly due to goaltending. Vitek Vanecek has been one of the worst goaltenders in the league, with an .879 SV%, while giving up seven goals above expected. Akira Schmid has been better, especially lately (.916 SV% in his last six appearances), but it’s still been tough sledding for him.
There’s been plenty of talk about whether the Devils’ defense is good enough, but their five-on-five numbers suggest it is very much good enough. They’re giving up 2.47 expected goals per 60 at five-on-five, the 11th-best rate in the NHL. It just has looked worse because of their goaltending.
The Devils’ skater group is one of the best in the Eastern Conference when healthy, especially up front. Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt are on pace for 100-plus points, while Hischier is one of the best two-way centers in the NHL. They could use more experience on the back end, but goaltending is the team’s most pressing issue.
The Vegas Golden Knights proved last season you don’t need an elite goaltender to win the Cup. The Devils need to sort that out since it’s increasingly likely Vanecek will not lead them to a championship. Perhaps Schmid can, but he still needs someone to complement him. Otherwise, the Devils would be Cup contenders.
Carolina Hurricanes: Stock Down
The most surprising team in the Eastern Conference has been the Hurricanes. I would say most pundits had them penned in as the favorites to win the Eastern Conference during the preseason. But they’re on shaky playoff ground as of this writing, with a 14-12-1 record and 29 points, placing them sixth in the Metropolitan Division.
If you thought the Devils’ goaltending has been bad, the Hurricanes’ has been worse. Their .867 SV% ranks last in the NHL, just behind the Devils. Frederik Andersen is out indefinitely due to a blood clotting issue, and it’s possible he won’t return this season.
That means the Hurricanes have had to rely on Antti Raanta and Pyotr Kochetkov, but the results have not been pretty. Raanta, who’s normally a reliable 1B, has an .860 SV%. At 34, age may finally be catching up to him. Kochetkov has not fared much better, as he has an .873 SV%
The Hurricanes have played quite well at five-on-five. They have a 55.92 xG%, ranked third in the NHL to the Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings. But much like the Devils, it’s hard to win consistently when your two main netminders have save percentages below .880.
And also like the Devils, it may seem like their defense is struggling, but their goaltending makes it look much worse than it is. I’d expect the Hurricanes to get it together at some point, but there should be moderate concern about their play. Goaltending has not come through, and they don’t have elite scorers like the Devils that can make up for poor goaltending here and there.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Stock Down
If there’s an Eastern Conference team that may be fraudulent, it’s the Maple Leafs. At 14-6-5, that may seem like a hot take, but the Maple Leafs’ seven regulation wins are the second-lowest in the Eastern Conference and tied with the Chicago Blackhawks for the fifth-fewest in the league.
The Maple Leafs’ two biggest issues are defense and goaltending. The defensive issues aren’t surprising given general manager Brad Treliving added four players this offseason — Ryan Reaves, John Klingberg, Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi — notorious for being significant net-negatives defensively.
The Maple Leafs are giving up 2.80 expected goals per 60 at five-on-five, ranked 26th in the NHL. Ilya Samsonov has not been the beneficiary of the poor defense and has an .886 SV%. Joseph Woll had been playing well with a .916 SV%, but he’s out week-to-week with a high-ankle sprain.
The Maple Leafs have the firepower to outscore their goaltending and defensive woes. That’s how they’ve gotten to 14-6-5, but things could turn for the worst with Woll out week-to-week. Even with Woll healthy, it’s hard to say this team is a Stanley Cup contender. Treliving will look to add a defenseman or two at some point, but their poor defense could continue to hold them back.
A Topsy-Turvy Eastern Conference
It’s hard to say who’s a bonafide Stanley Cup contender in the East. Each team has flaws, even the Rangers and Bruins. The Panthers look like the top team in the conference, but that could change as the season progresses.
It’s not as clear-cut as in the West, where teams like the Golden Knights, Dallas Stars, etc., are clear Cup contenders. That should make for an interesting Eastern playoff race that could result in some surprises, especially if teams like the Devils and Hurricanes don’t move up the standings.
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