Despite facing adversity to open the season, the Tampa Bay Lightning opened the campaign with an impressive 4-1 victory against the Carolina Hurricanes at PNC Arena on Friday night (Oct. 11). After parting ways with star defenseman Mikhail Sergachev in a trade with the red-hot Utah Hockey Club and re-acquiring an aging Ryan McDonagh, many questions surrounded the Lightning defense heading into the season.
Related: 3 Impressions From the Lightning’s Victory Over the Hurricanes
Sergachev was the definition of skill and offense, but the team will have to rely on a more well-rounded, structured defensive group this season. Will other defenders step up and fill the void left by Sergachev? The team might have found their answer. According to the stats, Tampa Bay defended the rush at an elite level against the Hurricanes to open the 2024-25 season.
2024-25 Lightning Hand-Tracked Microstats Dataset Background
I plan to hand-track microstats for the Lightning throughout the 2024-25 season. This will include data points such as passes, zone entries, and additional stats the NHL doesn’t cover. I will continue to share my findings throughout the season, so stay tuned for updates.
In the first game of the campaign, head coach Jon Cooper dressed 11 forwards and seven defensemen, which is uncommon. With the emergence of Emil Lilleberg, Cooper has some difficult decisions to make on the blue line early on. I tracked seven defensemen for the opening game against Carolina. Remember that these stats are all recorded at 5-on-5 play, so power plays, extra attacker situations and 3-on-3 overtime minutes are not included.
Hand-Tracked Microstats Support Lightning’s Stellar Rush Defense
In roughly 44 minutes of 5-on-5 play, the Lightning faced 38 zone entries from the Hurricanes. Of those 38 entries, 27 (71%) were carry-in attempts or controlled entries. Meanwhile, the other 11 were dump-ins. I want to focus on the carry-in attempts the Lightning defenders faced in this game. They did a stellar job of preventing Carolina from generating offense off the rush, the most dangerous way to create scoring chances in today’s NHL.
The vital stat tracked for a defenseman in the dataset on rush defense is denied entries, where a defender prevents an attacker on offense from entering the zone or creating a scoring chance on a carry-in. Of the 27 carry-ins they faced on Friday night, the Lightning denied 13 of them (48%), which is impressive compared to last season; the Lightning defense denied just 25.09% of the carry-ins they faced, granted the sample size is 12 games rather than one.
The new defensive pairings complemented one another well, with J.J. Moser standing out in his Lightning debut. He is the perfect partner for Victor Hedman at this stage in his career. Moser allows the veteran to take offensive risks or pinch down low. Meanwhile, Moser will sit back and defend the rush the other way, where he denied two of three (67%) carry-ins against him. Furthermore, McDonagh has revived Erik Cernak, who struggled severely without him last season. This pairing was shut down together, and McDonagh defended four of five (80%) carry-ins against him, while Cernak stopped two of five (40%).
Even the depth was on point on opening night. Late bloomers like Nick Perbix and Darren Raddysh made their presence known with Carolina forwards barreling down the wing. Perbix denied two of five (40%) controlled rushes against him, and despite sheltered minutes, Raddysh stopped all three of his carry-ins against (100%). Players like Hedman aren’t known for their defensive prowess, and young defender Lilleberg has some work to do when defending in transition. The two faced six carry-ins and didn’t deny a single one, but the sample size was too small to draw big conclusions.
Take Small Samples With a Grain of Salt
While Tampa Bay looked fabulous defending the rush in their first game, take the data with a grain of salt. The sample size is small, and with more tracked games throughout the season, more accurate claims and conclusions can be drawn. However, it was pleasant to see the Lightning defense in good shape to open the season with all the question marks surrounding the core over the summer. The Lightning host the Vancouver Canucks in their home opener tonight.
