It’s not quite time for fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs to look ahead to the next wave of talent within the organization yet, but expiring contracts and questions surrounding star players like William Nylander and Auston Matthews have some looking into what this organization has when it comes to depth.
Add to that an off-the-board first-round pick by Brad Treliving and the Maple Leafs at the 2023 NHL Draft by taking Easton Cowan 28th overall and there’s a mounting interest in the team’s prospect pipeline.
With Treliving coming in and the Maple Leafs getting a taste of Matthew Knies at the tail end of the 2022-23 season, the direction of this team could change and it’ll start with the next wave and who can come up and make an impact with the current stars of the team when the dust finally settles.
Defining a Prospect
In this case, prospects will qualify as player drafted or acquired by the Maple Leafs who are under the age of 25 and have yet to play a full NHL season. That means they are playing or have played in another professional league or still qualify to play in junior or college. For skaters, that would exclude players like Pontus Holmberg and Bobby McMann from being included.
Related: Maple Leafs’ Prospect Easton Cowan Brings More Than His Stature
For goaltenders, any goalie that has played under 50 NHL games and is under 25 years old will be included on this list. That means that heading into the 2023-24 season that Joseph Woll will qualify as a prospect for the sake of this exercise.
Pyramid Tiers
While it would be easy to list the Maple Leafs top-20 prospects, every person who submits their list would have a different outcome. What the prospect pyramid allows us to do is categorize prospects into tiers that rate their current ability and how they project moving forward as potential NHL players — from top-end talent to career call-ups. With that, here’s how the tiers breakdown.
Tier 1 – Elite or top-line, top-pair talent
Tier 2 – Top-six forward, top-four defender, starting goaltender
Tier 3 – Third-line forward, bottom-pair defender, backup goaltender
Tier 4 – Role players, bottom-line forward, depth defenceman or forward
Tier 5 – Minor league player used for call-ups
Tier 1
Elite or Top-Line, Top-Pair Talent
To be quite honest, the Maple Leafs haven’t had a prospect of this calibre since Matthews was drafted back in 2016. Part of that is the fact that the organization has only had four first-round picks in the last seven years — two of which are in the NHL already in Timothy Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin (now with the Washington Capitals) and the other two being Rodion Amirov and this year’s pick, Easton Cowan.
Amirov’s journey has been well-documented, while Cowan was a bit of a surprise pick for many in the first round of the 2023 NHL Draft. Outside of the possibility that some of the Tier 2 prospects move up based on their upcoming seasons, the Maple Leafs’ cupboard is empty when it comes to top-tier talent in their prospect pool.
Tier 2
Top-6 Forward, Top-4 Defender, Starting Goaltender
This next tier is where the focus needs to be when discussing the next wave for the Maple Leafs. The team and its fans got a taste of Matthew Knies to close out last season before he was injured in the playoffs and this kid plays with some energy.
The 20-year-old winger finished his NCAA career with the University of Minnesota with 42 points in 40 games before joining the Maple Leafs for three games at the end of the regular season, tallying one assist. After starting the postseason as a scratch, he came in when Michael Bunting was suspended and proceeded to put up a goal and four points in seven games before being injured against the Panthers during the second round. At six-foot-three and over 200 pounds, Knies will be a physical specimen moving forward that can fight for position on the ice and develop into a solid modern-day power forward for the Maple Leafs over the next couple of seasons.
Another name that will be in the mix heading into the 2023-24 season is Topi Niemelä. The 21-year-old defenceman was drafted in the third round in 2020 and is a mobile option that can move the puck with ease. He’s seen progress in the Liiga over the past couple of seasons and the Maple Leafs have been keeping a close eye on their next defensive prospect. He offers them the added bonus of being a right-handed option and could be an option to step into the Maple Leafs lineup in the next couple of seasons.
As for Amirov, his skill and ceiling remain the same hence his spot in Tier 2. That said, there is still too many questions as to what his future holds that the Maple Leafs can’t officially count on the fact that he could make a jump any time in the near future.
With the team under the cap crunch that they are, this tier offers them options at cheaper prices still on entry-level deals. While timelines can be tough to determine, those playing in the American League with the Marlies this coming season could be on the shortlist to get a call-up at some point — or, in the case of Knies, could see themselves start the year with the Maple Leafs.
This tier also includes Fraser Minten.
Tier 3
Third-Line Forward, Bottom-Pair Defender, Backup Goaltender
At the moment, the majority of the Maple Leafs goaltending prospects align with this tier. Goaltending can be a tougher read when talking about their ceiling as different leagues provide different opportunities. Add to that the fact that goaltenders, on average, hit their prime deeper into their careers than skaters and you’d have to be sure of one’s abilities to place them in the first two tiers.
Woll is obviously the closest to reaching the NHL and is the likely back-up for the Maple Leafs heading into 2023-24 with Matt Murray on long-term injured reserve. While he’s right on the brink of qualifying as a prospect, Woll has had a taste of the NHL in his career with pretty solid numbers in his small sample size. In 11 games he has a 9-2-0 record with a .924 save percentage and 2.38 goals against average. On top of that, with Ilya Samsonov going down in the playoffs in 2022-23, Woll saw four games of postseason action going 1-2-0 with a .915 SV% and 2.43 GAA. This season could be the year that we see more of Woll as he’s set to be the full-time second-stringer for the Maple Leafs.
As for Artur Akhtyamov and Dennis Hildeby, they will continue their development this coming season, but project to be possible back-ups at this point sometime down the road. Akhtyamov may be the closest to jumping into the next tier if he can have another season like he did with Neftyanik Almetievsk of the VHL last season. He played 39 games with a 20-12-6 record to go along with a 1.74 GAA and .943 SV%, but didn’t see any KHL action.
Hildeby has the size of the modern day goaltender at six-foot-six and over 230 pounds. He went 11-9-0 with Färjestad BK in the SHL last season with a .918 SV% and 2.26 GAA, but struggled in his two games with the AHL Marlies — posting a 5.28 GAA and .849 SV%.
As for the skaters in this tier, they include the Maple Leafs first-round selection this season. Cowan may have shocked some when he was selected, but his skill and puck possession speak for themselves and he’ll see an increased load in London with the Knights this season.
Related: Maple Leafs Have Hope in Goalie Prospects Akhtyamov & Peksa
Alex Steeves and Nick Robertson have already seen NHL action, but their sample sizes are incredibly small. Steeves has the speed to accomplish NHL potential in a third-line role, while Robertson could be a middle-six guy if he could only stay healthy. For him, it’ll come down to health, but continued issues in that category could drop him in the pyramid next time we check in.
This tier also includes Nicholas Moldenhauer, Roni Hirvonen and Ty Voit.
Tier 4
Role Players, Bottom-Line Forward, Depth Defenceman or Forward
Recently re-signed Nick Abruzzese heads the fourth tier of the pyramid with his short stints with the Maple Leafs the past two seasons. Overall the product of Harvard University had suited up 11 times for the Maple Leafs with a goal and three points to show for it. He added 48 points in 69 games for the Marlies in 2022-23, but in this organization there are simply too many others that will likely top him for opportunities over the next couple of seasons. Best case scenario is that he get some time this season on the fourth line for the big club, but don’t count on him as a major producer moving forward.
Hudson Malinoski is another interesting prospect for the Maple Leafs. He was fifth-round pick for them in 2023 and while he remains unsigned and set to hit Providence College in 2023-24, Malinoski is a player with a high ceiling that may have been an underrated pick based solely on his journey to the NHL Draft. At one point, it wasn’t clear if he’d ever play hockey again, and still he battled back to put up 69 points in 44 games for the AJHL’s Brooks Bandits in 2022-23. Again, league could play a part, but Malinoski is a candidate to increase his prospect value with a good freshman year at Providence this coming season. Still, it’s a long road for him and the others in this tier as they project to land somewhere on the team’s bottom line if at all.
This tier also includes William Villeneuve, Vyacheslav Peksa, Dmitry Ovchinnikov and Ryan Tverberg.
Tier 5
Minor-League Players Used for Call-Ups
Call them throw-ins for future deals, or potential call-ups when the team needs a strong role player to fill in for injuries, but these players are in the organization more as depth support than they are considered future full-time NHLers. Still, we’ve seen surprises come out of this group before and anything is possible, but don’t hold your breath on this group.
Nikita Grebyonkin might be the lone player that could increase his stock out of this group. He finished with nine goals and 26 points in 45 games with Amur Khabarovsk in 2022-23 and earned a handful of rookie honours in the KHL for his season.
Keith Petruzzelli was on the Maple Leafs bench for a short stint in 2022-23, but didn’t see any action while posting average numbers during the regular season with the Marlies before disappointing numbers in the playoffs.
The potential is there — as always — for things to change, but count on these players to fill out the organization’s lower ranks with the potential of the top tiered prospects the Maple Leafs have.
This tier also includes Joe Miller, Michael Koster, Brandon Lisowsky, Braeden Kressler, Mikko Kokkonen, Max Ellis, Veeti Miettinen, Noah Chadwick and Wyatt Schingoethe.
While it’d be much nicer to break down the Maple Leafs’ prospects one-by-one and have a more in-depth conversation about their projected futures with the organization, this is simply a snapshot of what the Maple Leafs pipeline looks like on a tiered basis. The window is open now for the Maple Leafs and there are some hopefuls that could help in the coming years, but it’ll depend on the direction of the organization when it comes to re-signing their big stars and where the holes lie within the lineup moving forward.
