The recent signing of offensive-defenseman Vince Dunn to a four-year, $29.4 million extension with the Seattle Kraken has raised interesting parallels and potential implications for the Edmonton Oilers’ Evan Bouchard. While the threat of an arbitration hearing changed the leverage for Dunn and Bouchard does not have that card to play this summer, the deal could offer some insight as to what the Oilers are about to sign up for with future negotiations if they ink Bouchard to a bridge deal and push his long-term negotiations down the road.
Vince Dunn’s Solid Deal with the Seattle Kraken
The Kraken made a substantial commitment to Dunn by offering him a four-year extension worth $7.35 million per season. This contract came on the heels of a breakout season for Dunn, during which he put up impressive numbers: 14 goals, 50 assists, and a total of 64 points in 81 games, boasting a notable +28 +/- rating. It is indeed a mutually beneficial deal for both Dunn and the Kraken, as it gives the Kraken some cost security, but also avoids overcommitment on term for a player who hasn’t established an extended history of elite performance. If Dunn continues to deliver at this level, the contract will prove its worth.
The extension ties Dunn to the Seattle Kraken until the end of the 2026-27 season, eliminating the need to go through the potentially contentious arbitration process. Furthermore, it positions Dunn to capitalize on the opportunity to become an unrestricted free agent when the contract expires, potentially opening the door to an even more lucrative deal.
Parallels with Evan Bouchard’s Situation
Dunn’s contract can serve as a reference point when considering the potential future negotiations for the Bouchard. Although there are some key differences between the two players, such as their age (Bouchard being 23 and Dunn 26) and shooting hand (Bouchard is right-handed while Dunn is a lefty), their offensive tendencies and potential impact on the team are comparable.
In terms of points production, Dunn’s statistics for the season were undeniably impressive, recording 64 points from 14 goals and 50 assists. Meanwhile, Bouchard, though less experienced, still contributed significantly with 40 points from 8 goals and 32 assists. The disparity in deployment becomes apparent when observing that Dunn was entrusted as a top-tier blueliner from the outset of the season, whereas Bouchard had to wait for his opportunity to shine after Tyson Barrie‘s departure.
Notably, their recent ice time patterns indicate a similarity in their usage. While Dunn averaged 23 minutes and 40 seconds of ice time per game this past season, Bouchard’s average was 18 minutes and 31 seconds. However, Bouchard’s increasing ice time towards the end of the season, where he saw over 20 minutes in 12 games and over 23 minutes in five of those 20 games, suggests that the Oilers are grooming him for a more prominent role, likely leading to an uptick in his points production.
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Considering the percentage of Dunn’s contract in relation to the current salary cap (8.8%), it’s reasonable to project that if Bouchard becomes a 60-65 point player and the salary cap reaches $90 to $95 million by the end of the 2025-26 season, his contract could fall in the range of $7.95 to $8.2 million per season. This, of course, accounts for the fact that Bouchard will have three consistent seasons of strong offensive production and much more clout when negotiating based on past performance.
The Oilers Are Going to Pay Dearly If Bouchard Explodes Offensively
Dunn’s new contract with the Seattle Kraken provides an intriguing benchmark for assessing the future contract negotiations of Bouchard with the Oilers. While there are differences in their respective circumstances, their offensive capabilities and potential impact on the team align, suggesting that Bouchard could command a significant contract similar to Dunn’s if he continues to develop and showcase his abilities. In fact, given the Oilers have the best power play in the NHL and Bouchard will be quarterbacking it, 70 points per season over the next couple of seasons is not outrageous when it comes to what Bouchard might produce.
Only time will tell how both players’ careers unfold, but one thing is clear: the NHL landscape is ever-evolving, and contract negotiations will continue to be influenced by precedent-setting deals like Dunn’s with the Kraken. This bridge deal Bouchard is about to sign means a much more costly payday is coming in the not-too-distant future.
