Which Canadian Team Is Most Likely to Win the 2025 Stanley Cup

In 1993, the Montreal Canadiens, led by Patrick Roy and a star-studded roster, defeated the Los Angeles Kings in five games to win the Stanley Cup. Little did everyone know back then that it would be the 24th and final time the Canadiens would win it all, and the last time Canada would win the Cup as well (as of this typing).

A few Canadian teams have been close since then. The Vancouver Canucks appeared in the Final in 1994 and 2010 only to come up short in seven games, and the Edmonton Oilers lost in seven games in the 2006 Final and the 2024 Final. Since 1993, a Canadian team has appeared in the Final seven times, yet every time, they’ve failed to win it, and thus the drought remains.

Related: 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 2 Hub

Fast-forward to this season, and three teams remain from Canada, making this year seem like the one for the drought to end. The Oilers, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Winnipeg Jets all have rosters built to do it, and even though they can all be eliminated in the second round, it seems like one of these teams will be on the doorstep of the Final and possibly bring the Cup back to Canada.

3. Winnipeg Jets

It’s amazing how the best team all season appears least likely to win the Stanley Cup. The Jets won the Presidents’ Trophy with a 56-22-4 record and were a great team across the board. Yet, it’s hard to buy into them and believe they can go on a run.

The Jets stumbled through the first round and needed a miracle in Game 7 to get past the St. Louis Blues. Connor Hellebuyck was awful in the series, and after putting together a Hart Trophy caliber season, he’s looked like a liability in the playoffs. Throw in the injuries that have piled up since the playoffs began, and the Jets look like their worst at a time when teams are supposed to be their best.

The Jets still have plenty of things working in their favour. The depth is stepping up with Cole Perfetti, Neal Pionk, and Dylan Samberg taking on big roles and taking over games. Additionally, Hellebuyck escaped the first round and can return to form to lead the Jets on a playoff run. However, the Dallas Stars, their opponent in the second round, are built to give them fits, and they probably will.

2. Toronto Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs look different this year, and in case the first round didn’t prove it, their play against the Florida Panthers in the second round is as they won Game 1, 5-4, and then took Game 2, 4-3. This is a team that won’t fold in the playoffs, and they can handle the pressure thrown at them by any team. The Panthers have battled with them and piled on the goals, yet the Maple Leafs have responded and look like the team that will advance based on the first two games.

William Nylander Toronto Maple Leafs
William Nylander of the Toronto Maple Leafs celebrates his goal against the Florida Panthers during the first period of Game One of the Second Round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)

What stands out about the Maple Leafs is that, aside from a new head coach in Craig Berube, they are built differently. They not only score but also defend well, with the star players leading the way at both ends of the ice. On top of that, they’ve played a physical game, which is why this team is set up to go on a Cup run.

Then again, they are the Maple Leafs. They are known for choking and coming up short in the playoffs since 1967. It also doesn’t help that they are facing the Panthers, the reigning Stanley Cup champions, who know how to adapt and take over a series. The Maple Leafs are a great team, arguably the best of the Auston Matthews era, yet they still must prove they can finish the job until people can buy in on them.

1. Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers look red-hot at the moment, and a loss seems like a far-fetched idea. They’ve won five games in a row and are playing great across the board. After losing back-to-back games to the Los Angeles Kings, the Oilers won four consecutive games to take the series, and after trailing 2-0 in Game 1 to the Vegas Golden Knights, they scored four unanswered goals to win 4-2.

Aside from the results, the Oilers are the team to believe in for a few reasons. For starters, the defence is finally playing well despite the absence of Mattias Ekholm, who has been out with an injury. It also helps that the stars are playing at a high level, with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl combining for six goals and 19 assists in seven games, but the depth is clicking as well. On top of that, Calvin Pickard has stepped up since starting Game 3 of the first round, and in case he struggles, head coach Kris Knoblauch has no problems turning to Stuart Skinner to save the day.

The Oilers came one goal short last season of winning the Cup. They know what it takes to get over the hump, and it’s reflected in how they’ve played all season. The regular season was played in one gear, the playoffs are in another gear, and the Final is when things are ramped up. The Oilers are the best situated team in Canada to win the Cup, and might be the most suited to win it in the NHL as a whole.

So, Is This Canada’s Year?

Maybe the 4-Nations Face-Off is a sign that Canada is destined to win championships this season. In all likelihood, a Canadian team won’t win the Stanley Cup, since the odds are against them. Only three of the final eight teams are from Canada, while the rest are in American cities. However, this is the best it’s looked in a long time and probably the best chance for the drought to end since 1993.

It’s not just that three teams remain, but all three are playing great in the second round. There’s a good chance the Jets, Maple Leafs, and Oilers all advance, which all but guarantees a winner from Canada, and that wouldn’t surprise anyone (it would also provide a Jets-Oilers Western Conference Final, which would be quite the experience).

Which Canadian team do you think can end the Cup drought? Let us know in the comment section below!

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