In recent years, the NHL’s Hart Memorial Trophy for the most valuable player has been dominated by skaters. However, Connor Hellebuyck has been the best goaltender in the NHL this season by a fairly decent margin, and is on pace to set career highs in a handful of statistical categories. While he is currently the favourite to win the Vezina Trophy for the NHL’s best goaltender, his play of late should build some traction from the national media for the NHL’s MVP award.
Before I dive into Hellebuyck’s case, I should make my thoughts clear: I don’t believe Hellebuyck should be the outright front-runner for the Hart Trophy. Players such as Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov, and Connor McDavid, all have very strong cases for the award. This article will focus on why his name should be right up there beside those players as we move past the midway point of the 2023-24 season.
Connor Hellebuyck Has Been the “Elite of the Elite” this Season
The last goaltender to win the Hart Trophy was Carey Price back in 2015, when he posted a .933 save percentage (SV%) and 1.96 goals against average (GAA). Those are absurd numbers from Price, however, what Hellebuyck is doing this season rivals those numbers and only strengthens his Hart Trophy legitimacy.
Hellebuyck’s hockey-card stats through 33 starts are incredible: He’s got a 2.15 goals against average (GAA) and a .927 save percentage (SV%), which has led to a 23-7-3 record and two shutouts on the season.
Vladislav Namestnikov commented after practice on Friday on Connor Hellebuyck being in the Hart Trophy discussion: “He’s deserved it, he’s the elite of the elite so he deserves to be in those discussions, and hopefully he continues on and wins that award.”
Since Dec 1, Hellebuyck has been other-worldly. In 16 starts, he’s 13-1-2 with a .941 SV% and a 1.68 GAA. He and the Jets have only given up three goals once in that time, a 3-2 overtime loss to the Montreal Canadiens on Dec. 18. By Natural Stat Trick’s tracking, he leads the NHL in goals saved above expected (GSAx) with 22.46. Second place is Thatcher Demko, goaltender of the Vancouver Canucks, with 15.55. He has been far and away the best goaltender in the league this season, and that alone should place his name firmly in the Hart Trophy discussions.
Just a few months removed from signing a massive seven-year extension, Jets fans and management couldn’t have asked for a more reassuring season from the goaltender at 30 years old. When he and Mark Scheifele signed matching $8.5 million average annual value (AAV) extensions, it was a sign to the NHL world that the Jets were looking to compete, and it’s safe to say they have established themselves as bonafide contenders this season.
Winnipeg Jets’ Team Defence Has Been Historically Dominant
Arguably the biggest reason why they are a contender in the Western Conference is because of their incredibly stingy defensive system, one that Hellebuyck has benefited greatly from. The Jets have gone 34 straight games allowing three goals or fewer, and are nearing the 35-game modern-day (since 1967) record set by the 2014-15 Minnesota Wild.
They have also gone 14 straight games allowing two goals or fewer. That record is held by the 2013-14 Los Angeles Kings, who went 18 straight games allowing two or fewer. They also went on to win the Stanley Cup that season, defeating the New York Rangers on home ice.
Related: Winnipeg Jets’ Defensive Dominance Reaching Historical Levels
Jets’ Head Coach Rick Bowness has gotten his players to buy-in defensively, and they are reaping the rewards as one of the best defensive teams of the past decade. This is what opposing teams are dealing with when they gameplan to play against the Jets: They shut teams down at five-on-five, and once the other team is able to break through and generate a high-danger scoring chance, the number one goaltender in the NHL is waiting in the crease to stop them in their tracks.
At five-on-five, the Jets are allowing 1.62 goals against per 60 minutes (GA/60). Second place in the NHL is the Boston Bruins who are allowing 1.99 goals against per 60. No team has allowed fewer than 1.7 goals against per 60 at five-on-five since the 2013-14 season, when those same Stanley Cup-winning Kings accomplished it with a 1.61 GA/60.
Comparing Hellebuyck’s Case to Other Hart Trophy Candidates
There are a handful of strong candidates for the Hart Trophy, which makes for a really interesting race that will pick up after the All-Star break. The ‘leading’ candidate at this point of the season, is likely MacKinnon. He’s got a league-leading 77 points in 47 games and has helped mask a ton of depth issues for the Colorado Avalanche, who sit at 30-14-3 and fourth place in the NHL. He’s never won the NHL’s ‘MVP’ award, and this is an easy story for fans to root for and for voters to get behind.
Next in the race is likely Kucherov, who’s second in the NHL in points with 75 as he helps the Tampa Bay Lightning fight for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. McDavid isn’t far behind either of these candidates either, as he’s got 59 points in 40 games and has driven the Edmonton Oilers to a franchise-record-setting winning streak of 13. After a slow start, the Oilers have climbed back into a playoff spot and are climbing the Western Conference standings fast.
Another candidate is Auston Matthews of the Toronto Maple Leafs, who is on pace for over 70 goals which would be flat-out ridiculous. If he ends the season with 70 goals and the Maple Leafs comfortably make the playoffs, he’s got as good a chance as anyone to win the MVP. Hellebuyck’s case of being the best goaltender by a wide margin on the number one team by points percentage (P%) in the NHL, gives him a very solid chance to be among the top-five in MVP voting at season’s end.
The Jets and Hellebuyck will look to continue their dominant ways on Monday, Jan 22 as they take on the Boston Bruins. Scheifele has already been ruled out for this contest, so the Jets will have to lean once again on their defence and goaltending to win that one. Before the All-Star break, they have a home-and-home series against the Maple Leafs on Jan 24 and Jan 27, which at the very minimum will be two games full of entertainment value.
