Welcome in to another edition of THW’s Winnipeg Jets Mailbag series. The NHL’s All-Star weekend has come to an end, and over the break, the Winnipeg Jets made their move. Sean Monahan is a Winnipeg Jet, as he was acquired in exchange for a 2024 first-round pick and a conditional 2027 third-round pick.
Monahan will be integrated into the lineup over the next couple of days of practice before likely making his debut on Feb. 6. As the Jets resume their on-ice activities, I offered up a mailbag on Twitter/X, and the fans responded with great questions to help tee up the back half of the season.
After the Sean Monahan Trade, Will the Winnipeg Jets Still Be Looking to Add? – @YWGBrian
The Monahan trade fills a clear need at second-line centre, as he will bring his faceoff and power play abilities to a roster that is struggling in both of those areas. According to the line rushes from Sunday’s practice, Monahan will be playing in between Nikolaj Ehlers and Cole Perfetti on the Jets’ second line.
Related: Pros & Cons of Jets Trading for Sean Monahan
The timing of this trade which comes over a month away from the Trade Deadline, raises the question of whether or not the Jets are done adding. I say no, given the timing of this move. According to CapFriendly, the Jets currently have roughly $3.2 million of deadline cap space to add to their roster, which gives them more than enough room to get creative and make another impact move.
This question posed by my THW colleague Brian Finlayson comes down to whether or not the Jets believe that adding Monahan is enough to win the Stanley Cup. Do they need more help elsewhere, say maybe a top-four defenceman on the right side, to improve their Cup odds by that much more? My initial thoughts say they do, and the timing of this trade tells me they are not done buying heading into the Trade Deadline.
Chris Tanev of the Calgary Flames would be a home-run acquisition on the back end given his defensive abilities. He would fit in nicely with the Jets’ defensive system, as one of the better defensive defencemen in the league. Sean Walker of the Philadelphia Flyers is another defender who is on trade boards, especially so after the Flyers acquired Jamie Drysdale to anchor their top pairing. I believe another addition is coming, this time on the blue line, as the Jets look to solidify themselves as the top team in the Western Conference.
How Good are Mason Appleton & Nino Niederreiter With/Without Adam Lowry? – @Grienk
Nino Niederreter, Adam Lowry, and Mason Appleton have been incredibly consistent this season, providing Rick Bowness with shutdown minutes while chipping in offensively. In the limited minutes they have spent apart from one another, the numbers look much different.
When we take a look at Natural Stat Trick’s tracking, there is not much of a fall-off when Niederreiter is with and without Lowry. In the 173 five-on-five minutes he has spent without the captain on his line, his expected goals percentage is a solid 51.70 percent (xG%) and his Corsi percentage (CF%) is at 51.89 percent. A few of the other analytics dip below 50 percent, and while Niederreiter’s numbers are better with Lowry on his line, he remains an extremely effective five-on-five player away from him as well.
When we dive into the other third of that line, Appleton’s numbers come as a shock. He has spent 168 five-on-five minutes away from Lowry this season, and in those minutes, he’s rocking a 35.8 percent expected goals percentage (xG%), a 32.35 high danger chances percentage (HDCF%), and a 48.14 Corsi percentage (CF%). Those rates are all above 50 percent or higher when Appleton is paired with Lowry, but it’s clear that Lowry is incredibly important to Appleton’s success.
I do wonder about the potential of Alex Iafallo joining that line in Appleton’s place, and how that would change the line’s dynamic. They would obviously remain a very defensive-minded bunch, but possibly the offence could improve that much further with him on that line. It’s a combination that we may see the Jets try over the final 35 games to get a clearer picture of their line combinations heading into the playoffs.
Will the Jets Call Up Heinola, Put a Forward on Waivers, and Continue to carry 13F & 8D? – @MattHHyman
With Mark Scheifele returning from a lower-body injury as soon as Feb 6, the Jets will have to waive another forward. Bowness told reporters on Sunday that David Gustafsson is still on injured reserve (IR), which means they will only have to make one move for now. I would expect Dominic Toninato to be the forward who is placed on waivers and sent to the Manitoba Moose of the AHL, and with Gustafsson on IR, this means the Jets can roll with 14 forwards and seven defencemen for the time being. Rasmus Kupari, Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, and Logan Stanley will be the healthy scratches, and Ville Heinola will remain with the Moose.
I do think Heinola eventually gets his shot. When asked about Declan Chisholm being waived and claimed by the Minnesota Wild, Kevin Cheveldayoff responded by bringing up Heinola’s name, and saying that he is healthy and ready to play now. For the time being, I think he will be acting as the unofficial eighth defenceman from the AHL, but it’s only a matter of time before he gets called up and given a shot in the role that he won out of training camp.
If the Jets do add another FWD and/or D Man, will a roster player or two be heading the other way? Trading picks for depth has created that logjam on D. – @MattHHyman
This question was posed before the Monahan trade. However, with another move likely being made before the Trade Deadline, and limited cap space to work with, it arguably is an even more prominent question now than it was before. If the Jets are to target Tanev, they would either need salary retained or a contract heading back the other way, and Mason Appleton and Alex Iafallo’s contracts in the bottom six, or Nate Schmidt’s contract on defence, make up the candidates to be moved out.
The logjam that has been created on defence has prevented Heinola from getting into the lineup and also resulted in Chisholm hitting the waiver wire. With Rutger McGroarty likely being apart of the Jets’ opening night roster next season, moving off of an Appleton or Iafallo to make room for a cheaper, younger player in the bottom-six could be in the Jets’ plans.
Perfetti and Monahan are the only two forwards on an expiring contract heading into next season. The Jets are going to be bringing back a very similar roster, and having a younger wave come through on entry-level contracts would help them be cap-efficient, which is a must for smaller market teams such as Winnipeg.
Re-focusing on the short-term, the Jets will return to action on Feb 6 against the Pittsburgh Penguins, as Scheifele is set to return to the lineup. Monahan will make his debut between Perfetti and Ehlers on the Jets second-line as they look to snap a three-game losing streak that they held going into the All-Star break.
