At the beginning of an NHL regular season, behind the scenes, every front office hits the ice with realistic expectations. Well, they should, anyway. Some teams hope to just make the playoffs, while others hope to play meaningful games in March. Rebuilding teams hope to be competitive, but are well aware a lottery draft pick is more likely than playing in May.
Then there are teams like the Dallas Stars. Playoffs are not good enough. A conference final is not good enough. For a handful of teams, a Stanley Cup win is the only satisfying result, and that is right where the Stars found themselves as the puck dropped on Oct. 10.
Related: NHL 2024-25 Power Rankings: Week 9
Through 27 games the Stars are 17-10-0, and find themselves in third place in the Central Division. There’s been some good, some bad, but thankfully nothing ugly. As we enter the final two-thirds of the NHL season, here are three thoughts on the Stars’ season so far, and what is required moving forward.
Home Sweet Home
On Thursday, the Stars host the Nashville Predators for the second game of a six-game homestand. They leave Texas only twice before the new year, and play nine of their next 11 games at home, 10 of 12 if you count their 6-2 win over the Calgary Flames on Sunday. Sure, it’s nice to get out on the road sometimes, but no team will complain about playing nine home games in one month. Especially the Stars.
Heading into Thursday, the Stars are 11-1-0 at American Airlines Center, with an official home record of 11-2-0 thanks to a “home” loss to the Florida Panthers in Finland earlier this season. If the record alone wasn’t enough, their dominance on home ice is telling when you look at the numbers. The Stars have scored 50 goals in 13 home games while allowing only 26, and their save percentage (SV%) is at .928. They’re averaging 31.23 shots per game, and the penalty kill is at 88.6%. If we were going to look at one negative, it would be the power play, which is only 10% at home this season.
A massive part of their success in Dallas is the play of goaltender Jake Oettinger. When it comes to a goalie of his caliber that is typically the case, but especially this season. Oettinger is 10-1-0 at home with a .929 SV%, a 1.99 goals-against average (GAA), and one shutout.
The other side of the coin is their play on the road. The Stars were one of the best teams at home last season, boasting a 26-11-4 record, so as great as they have been at the AAC, it’s not particularly a shocker. What is shocking so far, is how they have fared outside of Texas. In 2023-24, the Stars were 26-20-5 on the road. Almost identical to their home record. Through 14 games this season, they are 6-8-0, scoring 41 goals and giving up 43. Their special teams are entirely different as well, with a successful powerplay, 23.9%, and a subpar penalty kill, 77.8%.
If we’re going to give Oettinger love for his home success, we have to call it like it is away from home. He is 4-5-0 in nine games, with a .889 SV% and a 3.02 GAA. Last season, he was statistically better on the road. The struggles on the road are not all on the goaltenders, of course. There’s plenty of blame to go around. However, sometimes you need your goaltender to steal a game or two in those situations, and so far, he hasn’t been able to do it.
The Stars have a long month to pad those Texas-size stats, but when 2025 comes around, their play on the road has no choice but to improve.
Not So Special Teams
Since we briefly looked at this already, we don’t need to harp on it too long. However, watching this team night in and night out, it does need to be pointed out. It’s not a disaster by any means, but the special teams of the Stars has been spotty and inconsistent, to say the least.
Their penalty kill is sixth in the NHL, coming in at 82.5%. You’ll take that every day of the week. Yet, as we pointed out earlier, on the road, that jumps down to 77.8%. Last season, the Stars were eighth in the league with almost the exact same percentage, an even 82%. While it looks the same, in 2023-24, the PK was about 82% both on the road and at home. Road games are tough, and you need every edge you can get. The Stars have Stanley Cup aspirations, and to get there, that PK away from home is going to need to get back to last season’s form.
The power play is the real head-scratcher. There’s lots of season left to play, but going from sixth in the NHL in 2023-24, to 25th so far this season is a big drop off. The disparity between the power play at home and on the road has already been pointed out. What hasn’t been pointed out, is how the youth of the team has taken longer to heat up than that of the veterans, and the same is especially true on the power play.
When it comes to the forwards, Wyatt Johnston, Jason Robertson, and Roope Hintz are relied upon heavily. While they have been heating up at 5-on-5 as of late, their power play production still needs to ramp up. The three of them have a combined 13 PP points so far this season. Matt Duchene has 11 all by himself. On the defensive end, the power play essentially goes through Miro Heiskanen and to a lesser extent, Thomas Harley. They have a combined three points on the PP, and Heiskanen actually has all three. Historically, all of these players have been terrific producers on special teams and there shouldn’t be concern long-term. That being said, time is starting to tick.
It’s “Robo” Time
What has made the Stars such a successful team over the last few years is the perfect blend of experienced veterans and young, potential-filled talent. Joe Pavelski, Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, and in recent years, Duchene and Marchment, have all been a part of the former. The latter consists of Johnston, Robertson, Hintz, Heiskanen, and quite a few others. While the “kids” have been catching a spark as of late, it’s the vets who have carried the offense, for the most part, through 27 games.
Jason Robertson has been catching a lot of shrapnel in Dallas for his play through the first two months, and somewhat unfairly. In 2022-23, the Stars’ winger followed up a 79-point campaign with 46 goals and 109 points. Last season, his production “slipped” to 80 points, with 29 of them being goals. In 27 games, Robertson has six goals and 17 points, putting him on pace for only 52 total points.
This past summer, Robertson had surgery on his foot to remove a cyst and missed the entirety of training camp and preseason, which is why some of the criticism is unfair. However, if you’re on the ice, you will get feedback from the fans and the media, whether positive or negative. When Robertson is feeling confident, he shoots the puck. A lot. In 2022-23, he had 313 shots. In 2023-24, he had 231 shots. He played 82 games in both of those seasons. So far, in 2024-25, he is on pace for 194 shots. Whether or not the pucks go in, it’s the confident Robertson we all want to see.
Final Thought
Okay, so maybe this counts as four thoughts. Despite the negative tone these thoughts may appear to have, it’s not all doom and gloom for the Stars. In fact, this is a great team, with high expectations. They have been to back-to-back conference finals, a Stanley Cup Final during the COVID season, and have been a Cup contender for a while now. Within the division, while Dallas figures these things out, the Minnesota Wild and Winnipeg Jets keep winning, and the Colorado Avalanche have caught up to them after they themselves had a rough start. The Stars can win the Stanley Cup, no doubt. However, sorting these things out now will benefit them greatly in the long run.
