On the Sept. 12 episode of The Hockey Writers Roundtable, my colleague Jacob Billington and I disagreed on whether the Ottawa Senators were packing enough offensive punch to be successful this season (discussion at 9:43). I argued they were not, noting that not one of the Senators’ much-ballyhooed group of young guns cracked the NHL’s top 10 list of point-getters last season, or for that matter, the list of the top 20. Billington countered, arguing that there are successful teams such as the Vegas Golden Knights without players on the top 10 list. Not only that, but it’s only a few teams that actually have players on that list. In his view, the Senators’ firepower wasn’t a question mark for 2024-25.
Related: 5 Burning Questions for the Ottawa Senators in 2024-25
So I decided to do a deep dive into the statistics to see how important having league-leading point-getters is to winning teams. What I found is that it’s critical and that the Senators don’t have any players who are remotely top-tier point producers. That goes a long way to explaining their seven-year playoff drought.
Let’s have a look at what the cold hard numbers say about Ottawa’s offensive firepower.
Most NHL Playoff Teams Have Top-20 Point Producers
Last season, seven of the 16 teams that won a berth in the playoffs had players who were among the NHL’s top 10 point-getters. If you consider playoff teams with players who were among the league’s top 20 point-getters, that number rises to 10 of 16 teams. Three of four playoff teams last season had skaters who were among the league’s top 30 point-scorers.
There were only four playoff teams last season who had rosters that didn’t have anyone who managed to crack the league’s top 40 point-scorers. They were the Washington Capitals, Vegas, the Winnipeg Jets and the Los Angeles Kings. Of those four teams, two managed to claw their way into the playoffs via a wild card spot and none of them made it past the first round. The moral of the story is that having players among the league’s top 20 or so point generators is critical for success.
And therein lies the trouble for the Senators based on last season’s statistics. Brady Tkachuk led the Senators last season with 37 goals and 37 assists for 74 points. Yet that was only good enough to rank him 41st in points in the NHL. Tim Stutzle, the number two Senator points-wise last season with 70 of them to his credit, ranked 51st in the league in points scored. Drake Batherson’s 66 points put him at 70th on the list of NHL point-getters.
It’s true that Tkachuk’s 37 goals last season was good enough to put him alongside the Vancouver Canucks’ J.T. Miller for 20th in the NHL. But he was the only Senator to crack the list of the league’s top 20 goal scorers.
Batherson, with the second-highest goal count on the Senators’ roster last season (28 of them) ranked 57th in the league. That put him alongside the likes of the Montreal Canadiens’ Cole Caulfield and the New York Rangers’ Alexis Lafreniere. Stutzle ranked a distant 149th in scoring tied with the likes of Evan Bouchard and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins of the Edmonton Oilers.
Eventually, players and the teams they play for are what the numbers say they are. And what goals scored and points produced say the Senators are a team with at best middling offensive firepower. If the team is to make the playoffs this season, then at least a few of their players will have to find a way to emerge among the NHL’s top 20 point-producers.
Doubts About the Senators’ Top-6 Scoring Punch in 2024-25
The Senators were forced to rely too much on their top-six last season, and they didn’t deliver. Combined with a dismal bottom-six, the team ranked 30th in the league last season in goals scored, racking up an average of just 3.05 per game.
Insert the excuses for last season here, but they don’t change the fact that there are huge question marks around the Senators’ top-six this season. Can Stutzle return to his previous form? Will Josh Norris stay healthy, and even if he does, can he live up to the towering expectations the Senators had of him when they handed him an eight-year contract that pays him almost $8 million per year?
Senators’ Bottom-Six Is Much Improved for 2024-25
Coming into free agency, the Senators knew they had to add some firepower to their third and fourth lines. Its dearth was glaring last season with the bottom-six marking up the scoresheet for a paltry 12% percent of the team’s total points. Successful teams in the NHL must have a bottom-six that can pose a scoring threat.
Here’s what the Senators’ bottom-six is projected to be on opening night:
| Left Wing | Centre | Right Wing |
| Nick Cousins | Shane Pinto | Michael Amadio |
| Noah Gregor | Ridly Greig | Zack MacEwan |
Based on the points these players racked up last season, the Senators’ bottom-six can reasonably be expected to put up around 160 points in 2024-25 assuming everyone stays healthy over the season’s 82-game schedule. There’s no question that would be a vast improvement from last season when regulars on the third and fourth lines notched a dismal 96 points.
That general manager Steve Staios improved his bottom-six scoring, which was one of the worst in the NHL, is incontestable. Even so, that’s not the question. Did he improve it enough? On that, the answer is that he probably has.
Many pundits say that the best the Senators can hope to do this season is win a wild card spot. If that’s the case, then you must ask how their projected bottom-six point production compares to that of the two teams who captured the Eastern Conference’s two wild card spots last season – the Tampa Bay Lightning and Washington.
The Bolts’ bottom-six notched 113 points last campaign for a total of about 14% of the team’s total points. As for the Caps’ bottom-six, they put up 136 points. So, it’s not unreasonable to conclude that the Senators’ improved bottom-six is at least the equal of any other contenders for a wild card spot next spring.
Even so, Gregor and Amadio need to deliver on the expectations management had of them when they were signed earlier this summer. Not only that, but Pinto and Greig need to take the next step in their development.
Many Questions Remain About Senators’ Offence in 2024-25
It’s clear that for success in the NHL, a team needs a few of its players to make it onto the league’s lists of top goal scorers and total points producers. Last season, no Senator managed to do that. This season, all eyes will be on the team’s young guns to see if they can claw their way onto those lists.
