One of the biggest limiters of the Philadelphia Flyers’ upside over the past few seasons has been their power play. Finishing with the worst scoring efficiency in their last three campaigns, no franchise has ever had a man advantage so consistently in the dumps. But that seems to be changing with the presence of one player in particular: Matvei Michkov.
Make no mistake, having someone like defenseman Jamie Drysdale, acquired via trade in January, at full health should be very beneficial. But it is Michkov who can help the Orange and Black take the next step. Already showcasing a bit of what he can provide in the preseason, let’s analyze his play and what he immediately adds to the team.
Flyers’ Preseason Shift in Power-Play Production
Since 2021-22, the Flyers’ power play has been unable to generate scoring chances and, as a result, unable to score. These same themes have been apparent in the preseason.
On The Hockey Writers Substack, I analyzed the correlation between power-play production in the preseason versus the regular season (among other things, too!). Instead of using actual goals to quantify the term “production”, I used expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Expected goals are essentially a metric that tracks the probability that a certain shot will go in the net—a blast from the point is less likely to find its way behind a netminder than one from the slot. Goals tend to be more inconsistent than expected goals, so I found it more logical to use the latter for my data to mitigate the impact of the small sample size of the preseason.
I found a moderate correlation between where a team’s power-play xGF/60 total ranked from 2021-22 to 2023-24 in the preseason and the regular season—generating high-quality scoring chances in September is usually a good sign for what the future holds (from ‘Does Performance in the NHL Preseason Lead to Success in the Regular Season?,’ The Hockey Writers – NHL Stuff, September 2024).
So, where did the Flyers rank in this department among all NHL clubs? Here are their preseason (on the left) versus their regular-season (on the right) finishes in xGF/60 since 2021-22:
- 2021-22: 23rd vs. 21st
- 2022-23: 31st vs. 30th
- 2023-24: 29th vs. 29th
For the Flyers, their preseason ranks in xGF/60 have directly correlated to the regular season. When long-time captain Claude Giroux departed late in their 2021-22 campaign, the numbers showed it—there has been nothing redeeming about their man advantage ever since. So, where does that lead us to? This preseason.
Led by Michkov, the Flyers’ power play is actually producing at respectable levels again. As of the publishing of this article, they are fourth in xGF/60, and they have their 19-year-old to thank. For the first time in years, their man advantage looks dangerous—even if it’s “just preseason”, Michkov has been the X-factor for this drastic shift.
Philadelphia probably won’t have the fourth-best power play in the regular season, but it’s clear just how much of an impact this youngster has—he leads Flyer forwards in individual xGF/60 on the man advantage. The details of his game are remarkable at such a young age, as he is elite at setting up chances for opponents and is dangerous both on and off the puck in the offensive zone. This tap-in goal from his contest against the Boston Bruins exemplifies some of that off-puck ability:
That makes 5️⃣ points in 3️⃣ preseason games for Matvei Michkov (2g-3a). #BOSvsPHI | #LetsGoFlyers pic.twitter.com/f634X0PRWr
— Philadelphia Flyers (@NHLFlyers) September 29, 2024
Whether it’s flinging a puck across the ice to an open player to set up a high-danger chance or getting in the dirty areas, Michkov is a fearless offensive player. He is exactly what the Flyers have needed since Giroux left them. Head coach John Tortorella put it best: Philadelphia has been starving for his talent.
What a Competent Power Play Does for the Flyers
Not only was the Flyers’ power play the least efficient in the NHL last season (12.2 percent scoring rate), but it stands as the worst 82-game man advantage since 2013-14. Yes, it really was that bad.
Related: Flyers’ Power Play Destined to Improve in 2024-25
The expectation shouldn’t be that the Flyers double their scoring rate, but entering the 20 percent range is more than reasonable. Had the Orange and Black been in that area last season, they’d have scored about 20 more times than they did in practice—that is a huge difference. In their case, it probably would’ve been the difference between making and missing the playoffs, as they were eliminated in their 82nd contest with a 2-1 loss to the Washington Capitals.
There is only room to grow for Philadelphia. If the preseason indicates anything, that growth might be massive. The Michkov effect is very real, and his impact could be what takes the Flyers to the next level. While this is a teenager we are talking about, he is no ordinary teenager—he has already shown that by ranking first in preseason points with six (three goals and three assists) to his name.
The Flyers’ power play has been consistently unwatchable for the past three seasons. But there should be some hope for the first time in what feels like forever. Record-wise, the Orange and Black could be better than most people think in 2024-25 if the right gears click.
Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick
