According to several reports, the Toronto Maple Leafs are currently contemplating whether to offer young forward Matthew Knies a long-term contract extension. Knies, 21, is entering the final year of his entry-level contract, and while there have been some preliminary discussions about his future, there is no rush to lock him in.
Still, insiders like Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet have hinted that Knies could be on the cusp of becoming a major piece of the team’s future. The crew at TSN’s OverDrive also discussed the idea of locking Knies in now, weighing the risks versus the rewards of doing so.
A Long-Term Knies Deal Now Isn’t a Slam-Dunk Decision
This Knies situation presents the Maple Leafs with an interesting dilemma. Extending him now could potentially secure a high-value, team-friendly, long-term contract if his development continues to trend upwards. However, committing too early carries inherent risks, given that he has yet to prove himself over a full NHL season.
The Maple Leafs see him as a future leader, based on the fact he was given an alternate captain’s “A” in a recent game. One could argue that was because the team had a limited number of NHL regulars in the lineup, but others will suggest he’s already shown strong leadership qualities. Friedman noted that it’s a clear sign of the team’s belief in Knies, suggesting that they see him as a cornerstone player and a long-term asset. Friedman argued that the best strategy is to sign them to a longer-term deal early because prices on good players never go down.
But, what is Knies? He’s a good player, but is he explode-for-offense good?
The question for the Leafs is whether Knies is ready to take that next step and become a consistent presence alongside the team’s top stars like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. Knies brings size, strength, and physicality, but he’s never really been an offensive standout. He’s not been a prolific scorer at any level, and if the Leafs are going to get stuck paying full value or overpaying for someone, it will be because of points.
The Maple Leafs Could Wait Out the 2024-25 Season
The Leafs might want to wait and see how Knies performs throughout the 2024-25 season. If he ends up playing regularly with Matthews and Marner, his numbers could skyrocket, and his value would subsequently increase. But, the chances of that might be slimmer than him simply having a good season and coming in at a number that makes sense for both sides. Waiting for him to “prove it” could mean paying a little more later, but it also avoids the risk of overpaying for a player who might not become an offensive powerhouse.
The Leafs have had mixed success with players who took time to develop chemistry with their stars. A prime example is Zach Hyman, who didn’t score a lot in Toronto but became a 50-plus goal scorer after moving to the Edmonton Oilers and lining up with Connor McDavid. Conversely, Michael Bunting put up solid numbers in Toronto but has since moved on and not done much in Carolina or Pittsburgh. Is Knies more likely to become Hyman or Bunting?
It’s important to note that the Leafs still hold some leverage in all of this. Ideally, you want to sign star players early and get them locked in at a discount. But, if they can’t reach a deal before Knies’ entry-level contract expires, they have the option of taking him to arbitration, giving them some control over how high his salary escalates. This means that Toronto can afford to be patient, without getting killed financially if Knies finds an offensive level he’s yet to reach in his hockey career.
It makes sense the Maple Leafs are having this conversation. It would also make sense to wait, potentially revisiting things if Knies gets off to a strong start and maintains it.