In what seems to be the running theme of the 2024-25 season for the Colorado Avalanche, star defenseman Cale Makar (tied for third in the league in scoring with 23 points) suffered an injury mid-way through the team’s recent 6-3 win against the Seattle Kraken and did not finish the game.
While he played in the next game against the Winnipeg Jets, his name was nearly added to a growing injury list which currently includes several top-nine forwards in Gabriel Landeskog, Jonathan Drouin, Ross Colton, and Miles Wood. The team’s widespread injury crisis is well-documented, but there is relief on the horizon by way of a pair of two-way wingers.
Lehkonen & Nichushkin Should Boost Avalanche Forward Group
Feisty forechecking winger Artturi Lehkonen made his season debut against the Kraken with a goal and an assist, and was immediately stapled to Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen on the top line.
The long-awaited reinstatement of suspended winger Valeri Nichushkin looks to be completed next week as his mandatory six-month sentence expires in time to see him play against the Washington Capitals on Nov. 15. The final decision is up to the NHL, but there is little reason to believe he won’t rejoin the Avalanche as soon as possible.
The pair rank third and fourth respectively in scoring among Avalanche forwards since the start of the 2021-22 season (regular season and playoffs combined), exemplifying their importance to the club’s depth behind its superstar talent.
The lack of forward depth hasn’t sunk the Avalanche in terms of being able to dictate play as they have controlled 53.8% share of shots, 53.2% of scoring chances, and 50.2% of expected goals when neither MacKinnon nor Rantanen are on the ice at five-on-five.
Where it has hurt the Avalanche is in the goal-scoring department, where the team has been outscored by a 21-10 margin in the same minutes. Part of the abysmal 32% goal share is due to poor goaltending (.867 save percentage/SV%) which is out of the depth contingent’s control, but they have also only scored at a 5.4% clip without their superstars.
While the forwards have tread water during the parade of injuries, the imminent return of the dynamic duo of Lehkonen and Nichushkin should reignite a top-heavy Avalanche attack and revitalize the team’s forward group as a dangerous four-line unit.
Lehkonen & Nichushkin Make an Impact in All Situations
Although Lehkonen and Nichushkin offer a great deal in terms of scoring prowess, their impact goes beyond the usual box score statistics.
During the 2022 NHL Playoffs, Lehkonen and Nichushkin were crucial in the Avalanche dictating the run of play at five-on-five. Among 81 qualified forward lines (minimum 25 minutes played), at least one of the two wingers appeared on six of the top 25 lines by expected goals share (xGF%), four of the top 15, and three of the top 10. They also appeared on seven of the top 20 by shot share (SF%) and three of the top 15 by goals for per 60 minutes.
That was several seasons ago of course, but they are both still in their prime and injecting those two into the lineup could jumpstart the Avalanche attack by way of their doggedness on the puck and tenacious forechecking.
Neither player has been Colorado’s primary penalty killers across their tenure, but both have averaged over 1:40 per game while shorthanded since the start of the 2021-22 season, ranking in the top 100 of all qualified forwards (minimum 100 total minutes).
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Though the Avalanche’s penalty kill sits at a below-average 70.3% through the first 14 games (28th in the league), they rank 30th in team SV% (.750) at that game-state. When 29 of the NHL’s 32 teams sit at .780 or better, that suggests the overall ranking is more down to the team’s goaltenders than a leaky penalty-killing scheme.
Regardless, Lehkonen and Nichushkin could simultaneously revitalize the shorthanded units by offering more of an offensive threat than Parker Kelly or Joel Kiviranta, two of the team’s three most commonly used forwards while down a man. Nichushkin in particular leads all Avalanche forwards in shorthanded points over the past three seasons despite only ranking third in total usage over that time. During the era of the “power kill”, that type of threat is very valuable.
Avalanche’s Health Dictates Stanley Cup Odds
While the return of Lehkonen and the imminent reinstatement of Nichushkin are reasons for celebration in Denver, simultaneously losing the services of the likes of Colton and Wood dampen the enthusiasm in the room. With everyone healthy, very few teams in the NHL can match the Avalanche’s firepower up front. Otherwise, there’s a revolving door of depth pieces which leaves the team’s leading men with a perpetually sparse supporting cast behind them.
If the Avalanche can avoid falling too far out of the playoff race over the next two months, they should be in a position to finish strong to end the season. Eight of their remaining 11 games in November come against teams ranked 10th or better in the league by PTS%, with two of the other three set to come against two underwhelming teams which entered the season with Stanley Cup aspirations in the Edmonton Oilers (22nd by PTS%) and the Nashville Predators (32nd).
On the other hand, December looks much more favorable for the Avalanche as eight of the 13 games next month are against teams ranked 16th or worse by PTS%. If they can eke out points this month, a healthier squad should run roughshod over the competition to end the calendar year.
As of Nov. 8, MoneyPuck’s playoff projection model still suggests that the Avalanche are more likely than not to make the playoffs (53%), but the team can only afford to drop so many points before the task becomes herculean. Many teams (including the Avalanche themselves) have overcome a slow start to the season and ended up going deep in the postseason during recent campaigns. History may be on their side, but the team needs to get healthy first, and fast.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
