The Buffalo Sabres are off to a decidedly average start this season, sitting at 10-9-1 with 21 points. This places them in the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. Interestingly, their record mirrors last season’s performance through 20 games, when they were 9-9-2 with 20 points. However, this time around, they’ll aim to build on last night’s 3-2 overtime victory against Anaheim and carry that momentum into the upcoming stretch of games.
Related: Projected Lineup for the Sabres vs Sharks – 11/23/24
The story of the 2024-25 season so far has been one of inconsistency. One night, the team looks unstoppable, and the next, they seem to forget the basics of hockey. Their pattern of alternating wins and losses has led to a frustrating cycle of digging themselves into holes and then clawing their way out, only to fall back again. If this pattern continues, it could leave them hovering around 80-84 points, which would likely fall short of playoff contention.
On the bright side, the Sabres have won six of their last eight games and hope to make it seven of nine as they conclude their three-game California road trip tonight in San Jose. Without the rocky start in Prague, their record could be a more encouraging 10-7-1, which would have been ideal. Now, the focus shifts to the next five games—can the Sabres build consistency and solidify their place in the playoff race?
- @ San Jose Sharks
- vs Minnesota Wild
- vs Vancouver Canucks
- @ New York Islanders
- vs Colorado Avalanche
Last season, after starting 9-9-2, the Sabres entered a critical five-game stretch but lost four of those games. That skid effectively derailed their season, as they were never able to recover from the deep hole it created. This season feels different. So far, the team has shown resilience, climbing out of early setbacks and gaining momentum.
Looking ahead, if the Sabres can pick up eight points out of the next 10, they would find themselves with 29 points through 25 games, putting them on pace for a solid 95-point season. That’s the dream scenario—perhaps overly optimistic given the team’s history, but it’s not entirely out of reach.
A more realistic outcome might see them earning six out of 10 points, bringing their total to 27 points in 25 games. This would translate to an 88.5-point pace, which, while respectable, still leaves little margin for error in the playoff race. The difference between securing six points versus eight during this stretch is significant—it equates to nearly a 10-point swing over the course of an 82-game season. For the Sabres, every point counts, and this upcoming stretch could prove pivotal.
Prove You’re Ready for the Next Step
The Sabres remain the youngest team in the NHL, and expectations for them to take that crucial next step have been brewing since last season—a season that many felt was a step backward. With fans growing impatient, it’s time for this team to prove they can consistently string together wins.
While the Sabres have had their share of big victories, like their dominant 6-1 win over the Rangers at Madison Square Garden earlier this season, they’ve struggled against teams below .500—one of the worst records in the league in that category. The formula for a successful team is straightforward: good teams beat weaker opponents, and great teams beat both the strong and the weak.
The Sabres don’t need to dominate top-tier teams like the Jets with blowout wins, but they must capitalize on matchups against teams in the league’s bottom 12. Winning seven out of 10 games against those opponents would take pressure off the more challenging matchups, where even a 4/10 success rate against teams over .500 would be sufficient to stay competitive.
To see where the Sabres stand and how they can apply this approach, let’s take a closer look at their next five games and the opportunities ahead.
After facing San Jose tonight (Nov. 23)—a game the Sabres should win—they’ll enter a challenging stretch against three teams over .500: Minnesota, Vancouver, and Colorado. Ideally, the Sabres would aim to win two of these three games or at least pick up four out of a possible six points. My prediction? The Sabres could beat the Canucks and Avalanche but might fall short against the Wild. Historically, Buffalo tends to play Vancouver and Colorado tough, although this will be their first matchup with either team this season.
A Closer Look at the Opponents
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota is currently one of the league’s top teams, boasting a 13-3-3 record (29 points), which puts them second in the Central Division. They don’t have many visible weaknesses right now, making them a formidable opponent. Slowing down Kirill Kaprizov, who is tied for the league lead in points with Nathan MacKinnon, will be critical if the Sabres want a chance. While no team has been able to contain the superstar winger consistently, an upset is always possible.
Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver comes into this matchup with a 9-6-3 record (21 points), holding the third wild-card spot in the Western Conference. They’re just one point behind Colorado and Edmonton but have hit a rough patch recently, losing four of their last six games. This could be an opportunity for Buffalo to catch them off-guard and steal a win.
New York Islanders
The final team to discuss is one that could become a direct competitor for the last wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference if the Sabres stay in the race: the New York Islanders. Whenever these two teams meet, it’s almost always an entertaining battle. From Rasmus Dahlin’s alley-oop pass to Dylan Cozens in overtime for a dramatic game-winner to Hudson Fasching’s controversial “kick” goal late in the 2022-2023 season—possibly costing the Sabres a playoff spot—this matchup is rarely dull.
As mentioned earlier, the Sabres need to consistently beat teams under .500, and the Islanders are one of those teams right now. With a 7-8-5 record (19 points), they sit two points behind Buffalo for the final wild-card spot.
The key to defeating the Islanders lies in forcing them to play the Sabres’ brand of hockey—fast, high-pressure, and transition-heavy. This style pushes the Islanders into making quick, split-second decisions, which is not their strength. If Buffalo can create a fast-paced game and take advantage of their superior transition play, they’ll have a strong chance to win.
Given these factors, I expect the Sabres to get the upper hand and come out with a victory.
Colorado Avalanche
Colorado presents a tougher challenge. Despite a slow start caused by injuries, the Avalanche are getting healthy and have won their last two games—beating Philadelphia 3-2 and Washington 2-1—to improve to 11-9-0 (22 points). While their lineup is regaining strength, goaltending remains a glaring weakness. Starter Alexander Georgiev ranks eighth worst in the league in goals saved above expected (GSAX) per MoneyPuck.com, and backup Justus Annunen hasn’t been much better. If the Sabres can exploit Colorado’s shaky goaltending, they have a good shot at securing a win.
Keys During the Five-Game Stretch
- Play fast and quick
- Be patient
- Special teams (this includes staying out of the penalty box)
- Capitalize on opponent’s mistakes
If the Sabres can execute these keys in most, if not all, of their games, they could realistically secure eight out of 10 possible points. However, the one thing they absolutely must avoid is coming away with fewer than five. As mentioned earlier, capturing a minimum of six points is essential. While settling for five points wouldn’t be disastrous, it would only be enough to keep the team afloat and in the fight—not ideal for building momentum.
It might feel premature to suggest that this stretch, just 20-25 games into the season, could determine the trajectory of their season. But given the growing impatience of the fanbase and the team’s inconsistent start, it’s not an overreaction. This could be the moment the Sabres finally show they’re ready to take the next step.
Over the next 10 days, we’ll see if this team can truly give fans a reason to believe.
