Auston Matthews Poised to Rewrite Maple Leafs’ Scoring Records

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a long history. The team’s inaugural season was in 1917, although they were not officially known as the Maple Leafs until 1927. During that time, they’ve suited up a great number of elite scorers. And, the team’s all-time scoring leaders show the rich history of this great franchise.

Current Maple Leafs All-Time Leaders

Mats Sundin is currently the leading Maple Leafs scorer. He’s totaled 987 points, including an impressive 420 goals and 567 assists in 981 games. Following close behind is Darryl Sittler, who has put up 916 points in 844 games (including 389 goals and 527 assists). Dave Keon is third on the list, with 858 points in 1,062 games (including 365 goals and 493 assists).

Mats Sundin, Toronto Maple Leafs
Mats Sundin, Maple Leafs Record Holder (Mike Lynaugh Photography)

The team’s legendary defenseman Börje Salming sits in fourth place with 768 points (with 620 assists and 148 goals) in 1,099 games. Finally, a name from the more distant past is number five George Armstrong, who put up 713 points (with 296 goals and 417 assists) in 1,188 games. 

Related: Revisiting the Wendel Clark for Mats Sundin Trade

The chart below displays the top five scoring leaders in Maple Leafs’ history along with their career totals:

RankPlayerTotal PointsGoalsAssistsGames Played
1Mats Sundin987420567981
2Darryl Sittler916389527844
3Dave Keon8583654931062
4Börje Salming7681486201099
5George Armstrong7132964171188

The legendary Maple Leafs players listed above have left an enduring legacy with their impressive career point totals. However, some of their indelible records might soon be broken by up-and-comer Auston Matthews. [As a note, Mitch Marner should also be moving up this chart if he stays with the team. But, I have removed him from this conversation for now.]

Matthews’ Time with the Maple Leafs Thus Far

Matthews has enjoyed a remarkable career with the Maple Leafs since his debut in the 2016-17 NHL season. In his seven seasons with the team, he’s consistently been one of the NHL’s premier goal scorers. Over these seasons, he’s already scored an impressive 299 goals and 243 assists (for a total of 542 points) in 481 NHL games. 

Matthews is a scorer. His key accomplishments include his incredible goal-scoring consistency, with six consecutive seasons of 34 or more goals. In the 2021-22 season, he set the Maple Leafs franchise record of 60 goals. Additionally, he has been a strong contributor with the man advantage, and should soon challenge for the franchise record for power-play goals. He’s established himself as a cornerstone player for the Maple Leafs, and his impressive statistics highlight his impact on the franchise.

But More Is Coming for Matthews

Matthews has already established himself as one of the franchise’s premier goal-scorers. But, now that he’s signed his contract extension, unless something goes terribly wrong, he’ll have five more seasons with the Blue & White. 

Related: Auston Matthews’ New Contract Will Set Maple Leafs Standard

In the remainder of this post, I’ll look ahead to the next five seasons of his career in Toronto to speculate what his goal, assist, and point totals could be if he continues to perform at the level fans have witnessed during his time with the Maple Leafs.

Matthews Goal-Scoring Projection

In his career thus far, Matthews has played 481 games. In those games, he has scored 299 times. This equates to an average of approximately 0.62 goals per game. 

Let’s assume Matthews maintains his health and this same scoring pace. Given his history of injuries, that might be too hopeful; however, for the purposes of this speculation, let’s assume the most positive outcome. Even if he does miss some games, he could also improve his scoring.

Auston Matthews Toronto Maple Leafs
Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)

If he stays healthy and plays all 82 games in each of the next five seasons, Matthews will have an additional 410 games to showcase his goal-scoring prowess and add to his career point totals. If all goes well, using his past as an indication of his future, we can project that Matthews will score approximately 254 more goals during this five-year period. That would bring his career goal-scoring total to a whopping 553 goals.

Matthews Assists Projection

Matthews has also shown his playmaking abilities by registering 243 assists in 481 games. That’s an average of around 0.51 assists per game. Assuming he continues at this same rate and again plays in 82 games each season for the next five years, he’ll accumulate approximately 209 more assists. This would lift his career total to 452 assists.

Matthews Points Projection 

If we combine his goal-scoring and playmaking, Matthews has accumulated 542 points in his career, with an average of approximately 1.13 points per game. Over the next five seasons, playing an additional 410 games, he will be projected to collect 464 more points. This would lift his career point total to an impressive 1,006 points.

Related: Jonathan Toews: Beyond the Glory

By the end of the next five seasons, Matthews could firmly etch his name in the Maple Leafs’ record books. These projections underscore his potential to solidify his legacy as one of the all-time Maple Leafs greats, if not the greatest player in team history. 

Where Could Matthews Soon Stand in Maple Leafs’ History?

As he continues to don the Maple Leafs’ blue and white jersey, fans can look forward to witnessing more remarkable milestones in his career. As the table shows, he would be leading the franchise in total points and goals but would still be behind others in assists.

RankPlayerTotal PointsGoalsAssists Games Played
1Auston Matthews1006553452891
2Mats Sundin987420567981
3Darryl Sittler916389527844
4Dave Keon8583654931062
5Börje Salming7681486201099
6George Armstrong7132964171188

Other Records That Matthews Could Break

I’m obviously not the only Maple Leafs writer speculating ahead with Matthews. In a post yesterday, the Daily Hive’s Adam Laskaris looked at a number of other records Matthews could break. 

Laskaris notes that Matthews has the potential to break the following records in Maple Leafs’ franchise history. Specifically, as I’ve also shown above, he should break Sundin’s record of 420 goals. He has 299 after seven seasons, and would likely reach 420 goals within the next three or four seasons. 

Auston Matthews Mitch Marner Celebrate Toronto Maple Leafs
Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner Celebrate a Goal (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)

Second, he’s also likely to surpass Sundin’s franchise record of 124 power-play goals. Matthews has scored at least 10 power-play goals each season since 2018-19. He needs 48 more to match Sundin’s total, but that record is within reach. 

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Third, Matthews has a good chance to pass Sundin again in game-winning goals. Sundin has scored 79 game-winners. A recent post by THW colleague Andrew Forbes noted that Matthews has 53 game-winning goals in his career. That number makes up 17.7 percent of his total goals scored. Interestingly, nine of those game-winning goals have come in overtime. 

Related: The NHL 600-Goal Club

However, during the 2020-21 season, Matthews scored 12 game-winning goals. If he maintains a high rate of game-winners, he could challenge Sundin’s record in the next three or four seasons.

Fourth, speaking about overtime goals scored, Sundin has 14 in total. Matthews needs only six more to break this record. Again, this is a record well within reach during the next five seasons.

Finally, Matthews could break the legendary Tim Horton’s total plus/minus franchise record. Horton now has a plus-151 rating. Currently, Matthews is at plus-109. Although many believe that plus/minus is an outdated statistic, it does say something positive that Matthews has consistently posted positive plus/minus ratings. If he continues this trend, he could top Horton’s plus-151 within the next few seasons.

The Bottom Line

The bottom line is that Matthews could become, at least in the franchise record books, one of the greatest Maple Leafs’ players of all time by the time he reaches 30 years of age.