The battle for the Central Division title is expected to come down to the wire. With the Colorado Avalanche, Minnesota Wild, and Dallas Stars jostling for the top spot, the Calgary Flames, Seattle Kraken, and Winnipeg Jets are all competing for a wild-card position. The Avalanche have officially clinched a playoff berth, but what happens after April 14 is still unclear. Here’s an analysis of what each potential opponent could throw at the Avalanche in the postseason.
Dallas Stars
The Stars’ hot start to the season has carried them through the struggles they’ve seen past the All-Star break, but they are still competitive because of their penchant for winning games when they need to most. Jake Oettinger has emerged as one of the top goalies in the league, and Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz effectively carry the offense when necessary. Still, the Stars have proven to be a competitive opponent for the Avalanche this season, and a Cinderella season that saw them beat the Avalanche in the 2020 Playoff bubble and head to the Stanley Cup Final is still in the back of everyone’s minds.
The season series favors the Avalanche (3-1), who most recently routed the Stars 5-2 at the beginning of the month. However, Avs fans cannot forget the 7-3 beating the club suffered at the hands of the Stars, an effort led by Robertson, who recorded two goals and an assist in that March 4 tilt.
Mikko Rantanen scored four points in the club’s 5-2 win on April 4, making him the Avalanches’ points leader in head-to-head contests this season. He’s totaled six points (1 goal, 5 assists), Alex Newhook has four points (1G, 3A), and Nathan MacKinnon has three goals in the season series. On the flip side, Robertson has eight points (4G, 4A) against the Avalanche.
Ultimately, the biggest threat to the Avalanche could be Jake Oettinger, who has kept his team afloat with a 2.47 goals-against average (GAA) and a .917 save percentage (SV%). Comparatively, Alexandar Georgiev has a 2.54 GAA and a .919 SV%. However, Oettinger boasts a .953 SV% in four games against the Avalanche, which could be worrisome. If this series happens, it could come down to a battle in the blue paint.
Minnesota Wild
Once again, the biggest competition in this potential tilt is a superstar goaltending duo alongside a dynamic offensive threat. The Wild are still quietly competing for the top spot in the Central Division, thanks to an impressive season by Filip Gustavsson, who boasts a 2.03 GAA and a ridiculous .932 SV%. While Marc-Andre Fleury is no stranger to the Stanley Cup, it seems unlikely he gets the nod to start while Gustavsson is so hot.
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This season series also favors the Avalanche (2-1), but the most recent tilt saw the Wild outwork and outplay the Avalanche for a 4-2 victory that could play a huge part in the Central Division’s final standings. Of course, Kirill Kaprizov is a huge question mark, as he is out of the lineup, but will likely return for the playoffs. He has three goals in two contests against the Avalanche this season. Conversely, MacKinnon has five points (2G, 3A) in three matchups against the Wild, and Cale Makar has a pair of assists.
While the Wild don’t bring as much flashy offense as the Avalanche do, they play a strong, complete game that is difficult to defend and could stifle the Avalanche’s goal-scoring ability, as their veteran blue liners – Matt Dumba, Jonas Brodin and captain Jared Spurgeon – are no strangers to the Avalanche forwards. The Wild consistently lose in the second round and will want to make a push before their window closes. They have also proven themselves to be a threat to the Avalanche this season.
Winnipeg Jets
While the Jets sat atop the Central Division for a time, they struggled after the All-Star break and quickly fell into a wild-card spot, one they’re fighting for with the Flames. The season series favors the Jets, who blanked the Avalanche 5-0 after edging them out in extra time in the early days of the season.
Kyle Connor and Norris Trophy candidate Josh Morrissey have shouldered a ton of the club’s offensive load this season, but they rely heavily on Connor Hellebuyck to steal games. The forward, Connor, has just one assist in the season series against the Avalanche, while blue-liner Morrissey has a goal and two assists in three games. Blake Wheeler tallied a hat trick in the Jets’ Nov. 29 victory, but it’s Hellebuyck, who is the conversation piece, keeping the Jets’ playoff hopes alive.
Of course, the Avalanche suffered an oft-injured roster this season-–especially early on, when both of the losses to the Jets came–and the Jets have been on a relatively steady decline since the beginning of the year. The recipe for success in this matchup will be beating Hellebuyck, as the relatively healthy Avalanche offense has been firing on all cylinders to end the season and is no stranger to playoff success.
Assuming that Connor and Morrissey are equivalent to Rantanen and Makar, the Jets will be forced to contend with MacKinnon, who they might not have an answer for. Mark Schiefele, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Blake Wheeler have not stepped up to the plate this season, and the Avalanche could very well capitalize on the opportunity.
Calgary Flames
Former Avalanche forward Nazem Kadri has taken a bit of a scoring hit since he signed with the Flames during the offseason, and the team has suffered from underwhelming efforts by Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau, as well as struggles from Jakob Markstrom in the blue paint. They are narrowly clinging to hope, though the Jets have a game in hand and the tie-breaker in the wild-card race.
As usual, the season series favors the Avalanche (2-1), but the key here is the drastic difference in offensive capability. The Flames don’t have one point-per-game player on the roster, which is drastically different that the Avalanche’s dynamic offense. The Kadri deal turned out to be a bust in year one, and the Avalanche have outscored the Flames 11-8 in the season series. Again, the Flames beat the Avalanche 5-3 when the Avalanche were in the throes of injury, but Colorado has since trended upward while Calgary has done the opposite.
Neither Flames netminder has a save percentage above .900, while Georgiev certainly eclipses that mark. The Pacific Division is weak, and the Flames could sneak into a playoff spot, but they likely won’t offer stiff competition.
Final Thoughts
While only the Jets have bested the Avalanche in the season series, the Stars and the Wild offer the stiffest competition in a playoff series. While the Avalanche are fairly even on the road and at home, coming in first in the Central Division could offer them a favorable first-round matchup against the Jets or Flames, which could prove vital to a lengthy playoff run.