The busiest parts of the NHL offseason are over, with the NHL Draft and the opening of free agency kickstarting a flurry of player movement. The Colorado Avalanche were busy, though most of their work came in the form of unheralded moves meant to shore up the bottom of the lineup. That no splashy deals materialized comes as no surprise given the uncertainty hanging over the franchise heading into the 2024-25 season.
Based on how the Gabriel Landeskog (recovery from surgery) and Valeri Nichushkin (NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program) situations unfold, the Avalanche may need cap space to reactivate them when the time comes. For reference, the NHL set the salary cap at $88 million for the 2024-25 season, a $4.5 million increase from the 2023-24 season.
The Avalanche currently have around $10.9 million in cap space with Landeskog and Nichushkin off of the books for the time being (including seven defensemen with at least one forward needing to be signed or promoted). Assuming that the pair return at some point, the team could be over the limit by as much as $2 million given that the two forwards collectively count for $13.125 million against the cap.
While the Avalanche front office will likely try to keep some space available to more easily integrate one or both forwards when the time comes, adding another insurance option up front could come in handy in case neither situation is conclusively resolved by the end of the year.
Let’s dive into three of the most intriguing free-agent forwards left unsigned, using Evolving Hockey’s contract projections to offer a prediction for the player’s most likely contract terms by length and average annual value (AAV).
Daniel Sprong, Left Wing/Right Wing
Daniel Sprong scored 18 goals and 43 points in 76 games for the Detroit Red Wings in 2023-24 while only playing 12 minutes per game in all situations. He has long been one of the NHL’s most efficient goal-scorers on a per-minute basis, but has struggled to carve out a permanent home to date. Given that only three Avalanche forwards hit 20 goals this past season and only four hit 50 points, giving an extended look to an undervalued forward should be a no-brainer.
Among NHL forwards to have played at least 1,000 minutes at five-on-five over the past two seasons, Sprong ranks ninth in goals per-60-minutes, 15th in primary assists per-60, and 11th in points per-60. No other player comes close to matching the sniper’s cost-per-point, but he is staring down the prospect of joining his sixth NHL franchise before the age of 27.
Sprong is projected to sign a contract spanning three years with a $3.38 million AAV, though a one-year deal is projected to carry an AAV of $1.8 million. The Avalanche could tempt him with a cushy gig somewhere in their top-nine and a spot on at least the second powerplay unit. On a short, show-me deal, Sprong could do much worse than betting on the high-octane Avalanche system.
Tyler Johnson, Center/Left Wing/Right Wing
While Tyler Johnson is no longer the player who tallied 50 points or more in a season on three occasions with the Tampa Bay Lightning, he’s maintained value in a thankless role shepherding the next generation of Chicago Blackhawks talent. He scored 17 goals and 31 points in 67 games this past season while averaging over 15 minutes per game in all situations.
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Johnson boasts Stanley Cup pedigree after being a part of the Lightning’s championship runs in 2020 and 2021, counting 116 total games of playoff experience on his resume. At age 33, the Avalanche could insulate him in a sheltered role within their bottom-six, a situation much more suitable for him at this stage of his career.
Johnson offers enough offensive pop and awareness that he could help Colorado regularly win their minutes with the stars off the ice, something that they struggled with against the Dallas Stars in the playoffs. While Evolving Hockey’s projections suggest a four-year deal is the most likely outcome based on historical precedent ($3.1 million AAV), the Avalanche may hope to come in closer to the $1.3 million he’d likely earn on a one-year pact.
Nick Cousins, Left Wing/Center
Nick Cousins entered free agency after winning the 2024 Stanley Cup with the Florida Panthers having played in 33 playoff games over the past two seasons. Though his role with the Panthers diminished as the most recent postseason came to its conclusion, his propensity to play on the edge always injected a different element into a skilled lineup. The 30-year-old forward has scored at least seven goals in each of the past three seasons, and is one of the league’s most active forecheckers and notorious on-ice agitators.
Cousins is projected to sign a two-year contract worth $1.49 million annually. He boasts enough defensive acumen and veteran experience that finding a suitor for him would not be too difficult if the Avalanche needed to quickly shed salary, but head coach Jared Bednar would appreciate his utility, especially after the retirement of Andrew Cogliano.
Avalanche Have Options to Bolster Forward Depth
The Avalanche can offer prospective free agents the opportunity to play with some of the sport’s biggest stars in Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, as well as a legitimate chance to hoist the Stanley Cup.
Given the organization’s looming cap conundrum and salary allocation, taking fliers on low-risk, high-reward players (like Jonathan Drouin last offseason) should be the play as long as the key players are operating at an All-Star level. It will take some digging, but unearthing another gem is worth the hassle.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
