On Jan. 9, 2024, I went to the United Center to watch the Chicago Blackhawks play the Edmonton Oilers. In the doldrums of the season, expectations were not high for the Blackhawks. Connor Bedard missed the game because of an injury, and all eyes were on the other Connor wearing 97. I jokingly said to my friend, “Watch out for Jason Dickinson!” The joke being not that Dickinson was not worth watching but that he led a depleted Blackhawks forward group against the best offensive juggernaut in the league.
Lo and behold, Dickinson won a puck battle, rushed the puck up ice, and pulled off a beautiful toe drag to score less than six minutes into the first period. Talk about making me look silly (which is not hard to do). Dickinson tallied his 14th goal of the season on the way to what would be a career-high 22.
Dickinson’s goal scoring was a pleasant surprise—he had never scored more than nine. It was more than this though that convinced general manager Kyle Davidson to sign him to a two-year, $8.5 million contract. Dickinson’s complete game, which we will explore in detail below, established him as a key piece in the rebuild.
What can we expect from the man receiving a bigger paycheck, more responsibility, and more attention after his best season?
Defensive Responsibility Needed This Season
Dickinson plays hockey the right way. He does not cheat to create scoring opportunities, and he is responsible in all three zones. That is why he received 18 votes for the Selke Trophy last season. Even more impressively, the Blackhawks were a plus-9 with Dickinson on the ice and a minus-94 without him. He was one of three Blackhawks to end the season as a “plus” player, and he did it while playing all 82 games.
The offseason additions should allow Dickinson to replicate his defensive prowess. Defensemen like Alec Martinez and TJ Brodie should help the team improve overall, and Dickinson will only benefit from that. Furthermore, his projected linemates Ilya Mikheyev and captain Nick Foligno will form a tough-to-play-against trio only reinforcing Dickinson’s defensive numbers.
Foligno said of his line with Dickinson and Mikheyev, “I think we know the role that we’re going to have. Likely it’ll be a little more defensive…[we] have the mindset of being that line for our team that can kind of steal momentum, be a hard line to play against and kind of create that identity.”
Expect Dickinson’s defensive numbers to mirror last season. He will post a similar plus/minus rating and number of takeaways—he had 54 in the past two seasons and shows no sign of relenting. Furthermore, his adroitness at killing penalties (an often overlooked skill) will keep him a staple on the Blackhawks’ penalty kill. Last season, he averaged just over two minutes of shorthanded ice time. He has already logged solid minutes this preseason so all signs point to him serving in that ever-important role again.
Two final interesting numbers to monitor will be Dickinson’s offensive and defensive zone start percentages. He took the ice in the Blackhawks’ zone 68.1% of the time, the most defensive zone starts of his career. That number could tick up slightly if head coach Luke Richardson leans more heavily on the aforementioned shut-down line.
All this to say, Blackhawks fans should be happy to have Dickinson return this season. Barring any major lapses in his game, he will remain a strong defensive forward who will mentor the younger core. The $8.5 million price tag is not too much at all for a player who will serve multiple roles.
Do Not Overlook His Scoring Touch
Dickinson’s defensive strengths are evident. That is why his 22 goals last season were shocking. He posted a career-high 17.5 shooting percentage last season after averaging around 10% in his career. So a regression to the mean will most likely occur. But do not be surprised if he still maintains an impressive scoring touch for two reasons.
First, Dickinson’s total shot volume has increased since coming to Chicago (114 in 2022-23 and 126 in 2023-24). The trend indicates he will post at least 100 shots this season. Bank on him posting a 10-12 shooting percentage at minimum, and we can expect at least 10-12 goals from Dickinson if he fires 100 shots. I am going to be bold though and pencil him down for 15, which nicely segues into my second point.
Dickinson has latent offensive talent. When he scores in the NHL, he scores pretty goals and greasy goals. With increased confidence from last season, Dickinson now understands that he can score at the NHL level. He even admitted as much:
Maybe it does have a little bit to do with success and confidence. I didn’t need to . . . think as much on certain aspects, so I was able to focus on minute details and on the little areas that sometimes went overlooked because I was more worried [in the past] about the big details I was having gaps in.
– From “Blackhawks’ Jason Dickinson hoping to take next step in mid-career offensive growth” – The Chicago Sun Times, 9/24/2024
Dickinson has found a team where he is trusted, earns ice time, assumes a leadership role, and even mentors. Those components do wonders for a player’s confidence and, in turn, on-ice performance. He will expect more from himself this season and knows that he can deliver. We should not be surprised to see Dickinson net 15 goals and 20 assists.
A Player You Want on Your Team
The Blackhawks can rely on Dickinson, and, at the end of the day, that is why he will be here for the next two seasons. He will return as a standout defensive forward but will surprise with his offensive output. With all that he brings on and off the ice, he has proven that he is the type of player you want during a rebuild.
