It’s no secret that Blue Jackets goaltender Elvis Merzlikins didn’t have the best season in 2022-23. The 29-year-old Latvian appeared in 30 games and started in 27. He posted a 7-18-2 record with a 4.23 goals-against average (GAA) and a .876 save percentage (SV%). We’ll take a look at how these numbers compared to his previous seasons and why he’s poised to have a much better campaign in 2023-24.
Long-Term Contract and Expectations
In Sep. 2021, Merzlikins signed a five-year contract worth $27 million, carrying an average annual value (AAV) of $5.4 million. He responded with a pretty good season, appearing in 59 games and starting in 56. He posted a career-high 27 wins with a 3.22 GAA and .907 SV%. While these were not as good as his 2019-20 numbers, they were still far better than this past season.
Many players have experienced slumps or suffered from a lack of production after signing a big contract. Pressure from high expectations is a real phenomenon and even the best athletes in the world are subject to this reality. Long-term deals such as Merzlikins signify an organization has essentially gone “all in” on a player’s career. Especially with the goalie position, offering term with an AAV of over $5 million shows a lot of faith from the NHL club.
While this is absolutely a positive for the player, it does come with its challenges. Knowing the organization is relying on you to “be the guy” for the foreseeable future is a heavy load to bear. This doesn’t come with the leeway to perform at a mediocre level. The Blue Jackets, and their fans, expect the best from Merzlikins and he knows it. After signing a big deal and coming off his best season, expectations were likely at an all-time high.
The good thing here is that Merzlikins should be feeling less pressure now this summer. Improving on a seven-win season with a 4.23 GAA and .876 SV% is much easier than improving on a 27-win season with a 3.22 GAA and .907 SV%. This immediately removes some pressure as he doesn’t have to expect perfection in order to improve from last season. This should allow him to play a little more freely and not get caught up in the mental aspect of high expectations.
What About the Team?
This is where it gets interesting, as it becomes similar to the game of “Which came first? The chicken or the egg?” In the last three seasons, the Blue Jackets have been at the very bottom of the league in goals against per game (GA/PG). The team averaged 4.01 GA/PG in 2022-23 (second worst in the league), 3.82 GA/PG in 2021-22 (worst), and 3.68 GA/PG in 2020-21 (worst). As anyone can tell, the numbers kept climbing each season as well from 3.68 to 4.01.
It’s tough to say what has specifically caused this trend. While it is likely a number of things, it’s not fair to put all of that on Merzlikins or the goalies in general. Goalies are absolutely an essential piece of any team’s defensive puzzle, however, they are not the whole puzzle themselves. Great defensive teams limit chances against and do not put their goalies in positions where they are constantly forced to make game-breaking saves. Likewise, great goalies are able to bail their team out and make exceptional saves that keep their team in the game.
I believe it is safe to say the Blue Jackets were not doing the best job of limiting chances against in the past three seasons, given they were finishing at the bottom of the league. Despite the fact Merzlikins has played a lot of games in the last three seasons, he has not appeared in every single one. This means other NHL goalies, such as Joonas Korpisalo, have struggled to limit goals against.
Why The Future Is Looking Bright
There are a few reasons why I believe things are looking bright for Merzlikins and the Blue Jackets. First, no one knows better than Merzlikins that he must improve this season if the team wants to win. He is aware of his performance last season and as is the case for most professional athletes, will be motivated to be better this year. While this sounds fluffy, it’s a real aspect of playing and being a professional. Internal motivation and the desire to prove people wrong have motivated the best of athletes.
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Second, the Blue Jackets’ depth at the defense position has improved greatly. As outlined in a previous article, there’s a lot to be excited about on the back end. First and foremost, All-Star defenseman Zach Werenski is back and healthy. Missing the majority of last season was a huge blow to the team’s defense. In addition, the Blue Jackets made a splash this summer by acquiring Ivan Provorov from the Philadelphia Flyers and Damon Severson from the New Jersey Devils. These are two veteran NHL players that can eat minutes and provide some much-needed stability on the back end. It would be remiss to think that an improved defensive core would not in turn improve the goalies, and specifically Merzlikins’, numbers as well.
Lastly, the Blue Jackets announced this summer that Niklas Backstrom will serve as goalie coach in 2023-24. He was a 10-year NHL veteran with the Minnesota Wild and Calgary Flames and has been with the organization for the last few years as a scout and development coach. This is not to say that former goalie coach Manny Legace was doing things poorly, it is more to say that a new coach can provide a spark. Compared to an assistant who may have various responsibilities, Backstrom will be able to devote all his time to the goalies. This new voice and added spark should also provide a boost in performance for Merzlikins.
The one other thing to note is the style of play Mike Babcock seems to prefer for his teams. Although this was never exactly accomplished in Toronto, Babcock’s Detroit Red Wings teams were very solid defensively and known for their rugged style of play. I expect to see Babcock bring some much-needed defensive emphasis with the Blue Jackets in 2023-24, which will bode well for Merzlikins.
