At the halfway mark of our 2025 Summer Series, one thing has become abundantly clear. Although the Metropolitan Division may be down as a whole, the Columbus Blue Jackets still face many challenges within their own division. The New York Islanders are no exception.
Although the Blue Jackets finished seven points higher in the standings, the two teams are a lot closer than people may realize. Add in that the Islanders hired a new general manager in Mathieu Darche and had the first-overall pick in Matthew Schaefer and you have a team that is feeling refreshed and revived entering 2025-26.
Welcome to Part 5 of our series comparing the Blue Jackets to the teams in their division and around the Eastern Conference. The Islanders made some other notable changes on their roster. They too believe they can compete for a wildcard spot.
Just like when we thought the Blue Jackets and New York Rangers would fight for a playoff spot, we believe the Islanders can too. The difference as you will see is they need a little more to go right. They definitely have key players that are good enough to be a difference maker in crunch time.
Forwards
Let’s start with the biggest factor up front. The Islanders played most of crunch time last season without star forward Mathew Barzal. He suffered a broken kneecap after blocking a shot against the Tampa Bay Lightning in February.
The Islanders offense was expected to take a massive hit. It did. In their final 30 games of the season without Barzal, they scored just 80 goals. They also allowed 109 goals. In other words, they were outscored by almost a goal per game since the injury happened.
Over 82 games, the Islanders 2.66 goals/game would have been fourth-worst in the NHL only ahead of Anaheim, Nashville and San Jose. Yes, Barzal is that important to them.
With Barzal expected to be ready to go this season, that will change the way they are viewed as compared to how last season ended. His two best seasons in the NHL saw him reach 20 goals and 80 points. In between those two seasons, he missed significant time. It’s paramount for him and the Islanders to ensure he stays healthy.
As for the rest of the forwards, the Islanders have a combination of returning veterans and some new faces. Bo Horvat and Jean-Gabriel Pageau will join Barzal down the middle giving the Islanders decent center depth. Horvat has averaged over 30 goals in his two full seasons since the trade from the Vancouver Canucks. He’s also one of the best faceoff men in the NHL.
As for Pageau, he had his second-best offensive season in his career last season with his 42 points. He’s also one of the best faceoff men in the NHL at over 59% last season. Part of the reason the Blue Jackets have had struggles at times against the Islanders was faceoffs and lack of possession thereafter. This is one area the Islanders will still hold an advantage. While Sean Monahan is over 50%, how Adam Fantilli and Charlie Coyle do in this area will determine how much progress the Blue Jackets will make in that area.
Three other important returning veterans for the Islanders are captain Anders Lee, Kyle Palmieri and Casey Cizikas. Lee had one of his best offensive seasons in 2024-25 with 29 goals and 54 points over a full 82 games. Only his 40-goal season of 2017-18 was better. He also shot the puck more than ever, perhaps in part due to the absence of Barzal.
Palmieri signed an extension to stay with the Islanders and is coming off a 24-goal season while playing all 82 games. Speaking of playing in all 82, Cizikas did that for the first time in his career. He’ll eclipse 900 NHL games early in 2025-26. He’s the prototypical fourth-line center. He will have to play with new linemates with the recent departures of Matt Martin and Cal Clutterbuck.
The Islanders top-six could look something like this when the new season begins.
- Jonathan Drouin – Bo Horvat – Kyle Palmieri
- Anders Lee – Mat Barzal – Simon Holmstrom
Holmstrom is the player that likely deserves more attention than he’s getting. He recorded his first 20-goal season in 2024-25. At the 200-game mark in his NHL career, he has a shooting percentage of 19.8%! While he makes for a strong regression candidate, his role will be important if he plays next to Barzal and Lee. He should have plenty of opportunities to score with defenders having to account for Barzal’s speed and skill.
Drouin was signed as a free agent this offseason after spending the last two seasons with the Colorado Avalanche. It will be interesting to see what he’ll bring and where he’ll end up in the lineup. He does have 93 points in his last two seasons combined.
You will notice two newcomers to the Islanders in Emil Heineman and Maxim Shabanov. Heineman came to the Islanders as part of the Noah Dobson trade to the Montreal Canadiens. Heineman was identified as a player the Islanders really wanted in their bottom-six. He beings energy to the lineup. The team hopes he’ll help bring some defensive responsibility to the fourth line also.
Outside of drafting first overall, the big offseason catch for the Islanders was when they were able to sign Shabanov as a free agent. He’ll bring much needed skill. I’m sure you’ve seen highlights of some of his Michigan goals by now. It’s clear the Islanders are thrilled to land him. They hope his skillset will immediately translate to the NHL.
Anthony Duclair and Pierre Engvall are back. The Islanders also added former Blackhawk Matthew Highmore in free agency. Overall, as long as this group can stay healthy, they can give teams fits. But it is an aging core with an average age of just under 30 years old. How much longer can they produce before things start to fall off? And how quickly can their young players integrate themselves on a consistent basis?
Defense
Here is how the Islanders could look in their top-six to start out 2025-26. You will recognize most of these names.
- Adam Pelech – Ryan Pulock
- Alexander Romanov – Tony DeAngelo
- Matthew Schaefer – Scott Mayfield
The big story is the addition of Schaefer first overall. His story is well documented. He’s already endeared himself to the Islanders and the hockey world. He did just sign his ELC which means he’ll either play on the Islanders or in the OHL this upcoming season.
He projects to be a star, number-one defenseman who is mobile and has the ability to take over games on his own. Should he make the Islanders, he’ll have a chance to learn from this veteran group of defenseman including former Erie Otter Pelech who he’s already working with.
While the Islanders are bringing back most of the band, their overall defense last season was not good. It finished in the bottom-12 in goals against. They had one of the worst penalty kills in the NHL At just 72.2% on the season, only the Detroit Red Wings were worse. Couple that with having the second-worst power play at 12.6% and you see how bad special teams contributed to these results.
Another factor to consider in the Islanders’ poor defense was injuries. Pelech missed 22 games last season. Pelech broke his jaw in November after taking a puck to the face. He also had a foot injury from a shot block. And then he was the recipient of a head shot from Paul Cotter which resulted in a match penalty. He and Ryan Pulock will be depended upon heavily.
Meanwhile, Alexander Romanov had an upper-body injury at the start of last season. He was able to stay healthy and got better as last season wore on.
The Islanders hope Tony DeAngelo will rediscover his form that saw him score 50 points in a season on two different occasions. Adam Boqvist will see some time as well. He spent time last season on both forward and defense.
Overall, this group has important questions to answer. There is familiarity within the group. There should be some improvement having Barzal back up front and Pelech healthy to start the new season. But will there be enough improvement here to make up the gap to return to the playoffs? A lot will ride on the goaltending.
Goaltending
Speaking of goaltending, the Islanders still have Ilya Sorokin. That certainly gives them a chance to rebound. He won 30 games last season, the second most in his NHL career. But his other numbers were some of the worst of his career.
Sorokin finished with a 2.71 goals-against and a .907 save percentage in 61 games. He averages a 2.58 and a .917 in his career. He enjoyed some of his best numbers earlier in his career when the defense was more steady. How much will he be able to rebound in 2025-26?
Then with Semyon Varlamov injured, the Islanders will turn to either David Rittich or Marcus Hogberg as their backup. Rittich was signed to a 1-year contract on the opening day of free agency. He’s playing for his sixth NHL team in seven seasons. He appeared in 58 games for the Los Angeles Kings over the last two seasons. He had a .921 save percentage in 2023-24 before regressing last season.
If the Islanders are going to make a significant push towards the playoffs, Sorokin has to be one of the big reasons why. He’ll need help in front of him to make it happen. And then between Rittich and Hogberg, can the Islanders get enough out of the non-Sorokin starts?
Overall
The Blue Jackets compare favorably to the Islanders. This is especially evident up front. Despite being one of the worst defensive teams in the league last season, the Blue Jackets still finished with a positive goal differential. That points to their ability to score goals. As a team who has a young core up front, that should continue.
Sean Monahan, Adam Fantilli and Charlie Coyle make for strong center depth that can match and exceed the Islanders. Then consider what Kirill Marchenko, Kent Johnson and others could provide, the overall offensive skill favors the Blue Jackets.
Defensively, the two teams are close but the Blue Jackets do get the edge. They have a serious Norris contender in Zach Werenski who alone can uplift a team. The Islanders don’t have anyone close to that caliber a player although Schaefer in time could challenge that level.
The Blue Jackets do have significant questions on defense bringing Dante Fabbro and Ivan Provorov back. Denton Mateychuk is ready for more. Will the continuing chemistry help them reduce their goals against? The Werenski factor is strong enough to give a slight edge to the Blue Jackets but the Islanders should show better this season than last.
The Islanders do get the checkmark in net. Sorokin can be a star. Elvis Merzlikins and Jet Greaves each have something different to prove. Whoever wins this battle could get a leg up in the standings.
The Blue Jackets still struggle on Long Island. While they won a huge game late last season there, they got fortunate at the end of the game with a disallowed goal. Columbus has to be able to start winning more consistently on the road especially at Belmont Park.
Overall, the Islanders are still a tough challenge. But the Blue Jackets do get the edge overall given their goal scoring and demonstrated better special teams. If Merzlikins and Greaves are unable to perform to the needed level, the Islanders do have a path to being better than the Blue Jackets in 2025-26. That’s why this series will be very interesting to watch.
Stay tuned for Part 6 of the Summer Series when we turn our attention to the Philadelphia Flyers.
