The St. Louis Blues face challenges in the current NHL standings, and the reasons are straightforward: their performance this season has not been stellar. However, examining the current roster construction reveals numerous areas for improvement. General manager Doug Armstrong and the Blues’ front office may consider making moves at the upcoming Trade Deadline (Mar. 8), though several questions remain unanswered.
Currently, six Blues players are set to become free agents after this season. While the potential loss of these players could pose a challenge, they aren’t widely viewed as foundational to the team. The more pressing concern lies with players locked up long-term who are underperforming. This dynamic makes the approaching Deadline intriguing for the Blues, especially considering their prospect pool is brimming with talented individuals ready for NHL action next season. With limited spots on the NHL roster for these prospects, the Blues face the critical decision of how to navigate the situation.
Blues’ Roster Construction — Finding the Right Spots
As the 2024-25 season approaches, the projected $4-million increase in the salary cap benefits the Blues’ situation. There are concerns regarding the team’s ability to open roster spots for their prospects due to multiple problematic contracts. Additionally, players regressing and falling short of the Blues’ expectations adds complexity to the task of improving the team’s roster.
For Zachary Bolduc, Dalibor Dvorsky, and Jimmy Snuggerud, their playing styles don’t align with the typical “grinder” criteria. Successful fourth-line players often thrive with high-intensity play, wearing down opponents, making an impact in the forecheck, and getting under the skin of the opponents. To maximize the potential of Dvorsky, Bolduc, and Snuggerud, the Blues should aim to secure spots for them within the top nine, rather than confining them to the fourth line.
Klim Kostin generated significant hype but fell short of the expectations set for him. As a forward with top-six potential entering the league, when he was put on the fourth line, he struggled to establish his identity. Renowned in juniors and the American Hockey League as an elite puck handler, placing him on the fourth line seemed counterintuitive as it didn’t provide him with the best opportunity to succeed. Since then, Kostin has faced challenges in recovery, and in the eyes of many, he is now considered a bust.
Kostin’s experience isn’t unique; many players have faced the same challenges in the roles assigned to them upon entering the league. It sparks curiosity about how the league might differ if players started in roles aligned with their playing styles. However, the reality is that the league operates differently, with players expected to maximize opportunities even if not always successful. Nevertheless, it underscores the importance of avoiding situations where top prospects are set up to fail, emphasizing the need to create opportunities for them within the top nine.
Blues Forwards Who Could Be Moved at the Trade Deadline
Successful franchises understand the art of strategic buying and selling. Teams that have grappled with finding their footing in recent seasons are often on the path to recovery. The Detroit Red Wings, for example, maintained a robust prospect pool and prioritized contracts for players integral to their future rather than focusing solely on the present. Similar principles apply to various teams in the league. However, the Blues appear to be struggling to identify a clear direction for progress.
The Blues are heading into the upcoming offseason with six free agents. Among them, only one forward consistently logs top-nine minutes. If Snuggerud, Bolduc, and Dvorsky are added to the roster, creating two spots for these emerging talents will require some adjustments. Considering the Blues’ current state, notable names who could be moved include Brayden Schenn, Kevin Hayes, and Brandon Saad.
Brayden Schenn
Recently appointed captain of the Blues, Brayden Schenn, at 32, is under contract for four more seasons with a $6.5 million annual average value (AAV). Given the noticeable decline in production and speed, the likelihood of him rebounding appears slim. Considering the ongoing decline, there’s a growing concern that it could worsen, making Schenn a candidate for a potential move by the Blues at this Trade Deadline.
There’s no justifiable reason for a player earning $6.5 million to be relegated to the third or fourth line. Given Schenn’s salary, he should ideally serve as the Blues’ second-line center, however, this role comes with the expectation of consistent production which he has not delivered. With a current season total of 16 points, Schenn has struggled offensively. It’s worth noting that excluding his exceptional performance against the Colorado Avalanche on Nov. 11, 2023, his average points per game dropped to .35. Furthermore, he carries a minus-13 rating.
Schenn has not historically been a “point-getter,” but nevertheless, has been reliable on both ends of the ice for his entire career. However, he hasn’t demonstrated this consistency recently. Given the noticeable regression, it appears the Blues may consider moving on from him before the opportunity to secure value in return diminishes further.
Kevin Hayes
At 31 years old, Kevin Hayes is under contract for two more seasons with a $3.6 million AAV, making him one of the Blues’ standout players this season on a favorable contract. However, the rationale for considering a trade is straightforward: Hayes is not expected to surpass his recent performances. Exploring a trade for him now would maximize the value the Blues get in return.
Related: Blues December Prospect Report: World Juniors
Hayes, acquired in the off-season from the Philadelphia Flyers, was initially regarded as the Blues’ third-line center this season. The challenge with Hayes lies in the fact that he surpasses the typical expectations for a third-line center but falls short of a second-line center on a playoff-contending team. Considering his restrained production, trading him and securing a mid-round pick at the deadline could free up a spot for either Nikita Alexandrov or Hugh McGing.
Brandon Saad
Among the mentioned names, Blues fans generally favor keeping Saad. Since joining the Blues on July 29, 2021, Saad has been versatile, contributing across all four lines without complaint. As a seasoned veteran, he has demonstrated professionalism and a commitment to the team’s success. Despite this positive contribution, trade talks could still arise due to the remaining two years on his contract at $4.5 million AAV.
Saad will likely be the only Blues player attracting interest from other teams about his availability. As an established veteran with a favorable contract and consistent reliability, he becomes a valuable target for teams vying for a playoff spot and in need of depth. Potential suitors for the veteran forward at the deadline could include the Detroit Red Wings, Seattle Kraken, Winnipeg Jets, and the New York Islanders.
Blues Defensemen Who Could be Moved at the Trade Deadline-
While the Blues have several forwards potentially available for trade, considering the upcoming readiness of prospects, there are lingering issues on the defensive end that demand attention and resolution. Balancing the roster and addressing defensive concerns will be crucial in the coming seasons.
The Blues presently have eight defensemen on their NHL roster, with five of them holding contracts beyond this season. Colton Parayko, Torey Krug, Justin Faulk, Nick Leddy, and Tyler Tucker are secured for the upcoming season, while Scott Perunovich will be a restricted free agent. While this provides a potentially solid defensive core for the Blues, the critical question arises: Is it going to be good enough to compete?
General managers consistently grapple with the question of when to move players to maximize their value, considering how players tend to decline as the years go on. Furthermore, the pursuit of improvement is always on the mind. This involves assessing what other teams lack and navigating the market.
This season, the Blues have predominantly paired three defensive lines: Leddy-Parayko, Krug-Faulk, and Marco Scandella-Perunovich. Examining the league’s defensive pairings is measurable with two crucial statistics to consider when ranking these pairings: Goals-for percentage and goals-against percentage.
When evaluating goals-for percentage among the defensive lines, the Krug-Faulk pairing stands out as the highest-ranked, currently positioned at 3rd in the NHL. Additionally, the Leddy-Parayko duo follows at 10th, while Scandella-Perunovich is ranked at 91. A similar positive trend is observed when examining goals-against percentage, highlighting the effectiveness of these defensive pairings.
In goals-against percentage, the Blues have demonstrated excellence in the offensive zone, aligning with the strategic construction of their defensive core. Everyday players such as Leddy, Parayko, Krug, and Faulk contribute to this success. The expected outcome for the Blues is reflected in their rankings, with Leddy-Parayko securing the top spot, followed by Krug-Faulk at number two. However, the Scandella-Perunovich pairing is ranked 83rd.
Recognizing the significance of delving deeper into the Blues’ construction — considering their current prospect count and the age of the NHL roster players — it appears highly probable the Blues will contemplate a move involving a defenseman. Assessing the team’s dynamics suggests a strategic focus on addressing defensive aspects to optimize their overall roster composition.
While the Blues are unlikely to part ways with Parayko, it’s conceivable they would entertain offers for other defensemen. Despite showcasing good line chemistry, Krug and Faulk have experienced a notable decline in production and defensive backbone capabilities. Moving one of these contracts could serve as a strategic move to free up cap space. given their offensive-minded play, there is undoubtedly interest from teams looking to add either Krug or Faulk at the Trade Deadline.
Blues’ Roster Construction: How to Fix it
The Blues boast several players with immense potential but lack top-six talent. Successful teams rely on a trustworthy top six capable of generating goals consistently. Unfortunately, the Blues have struggled to replicate this formula throughout the current season, posing a significant challenge.
To contend for a playoff spot, the Blues must actively engage in the trade market to secure a top-six forward. While there are numerous potential targets, determining who to part with becomes crucial. Bolduc, Dvorsky, or Snuggerud are potential candidates, with Snuggerud and Dvorsky less likely due to their strong performances in their leagues. Nonetheless, parting with prospects seems inevitable to acquire a notable player.
